A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series

A sample‐based method in Kolsrud (Journal of Forecasting 2007; 26 (3): 171–188) for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series is extended to produce a variable‐ and time‐simultaneous prediction box for a multivariate time series. A measure of distance based on the L_∞ ‐norm is applied to a learning sample of multivariate time trajectories, which can be mean‐ and/or variance‐nonstationary. Based on the ranking of distances to the centre of the sample, a subsample of the most central multivariate trajectories is selected. A prediction box is constructed by circumscribing the subsample with a hyperrectangle. The fraction of central trajectories selected into the subsample can be calibrated by bootstrap such that the expected coverage of the box equals a prescribed nominal level. The method is related to the concept of data depth, and thence modified to increase coverage. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the method, which is also compared to several other methods in the literature adapted to the multivariate setting. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

乌苏里江水深遥感反演

文中在分析卫星遥感测深机理的基础上,利用SVCHR-1024高光谱成像仪确定了可见光反演水深的最佳波段,通过对HJ星CCD数据各波段反射率、波段比值组合对水体、水深的敏感性分析,建立了适合于乌苏里江的单波段对数水深反演模型,从而快速获取乌苏里江河道地形信息,并探测了河道深泓线,整体精度达到80%以上.遥感反演水深可快速探测河道深泓线的方法,为乌苏里江河势演变研究提供了新的思路.     

时变流动性深度模型

使用超高频数据,并利用流动性深度指标,研究流动性的动态特征、影响因素以及检验市场微观结构理论.结果支持基于信息不对称下的市场微观结构理论.研究还表明耐心交易可以降低交易成本.     

The radial self-positioning algorithm of intelligent ultrasonic probe array in oil/gas pipeline

The working principle of the pipeline intelligent pig and the structure of ultrasonic probe array used to detect defects in oil/gas pipeline are introduced.The effects of the array'S radial position in pipe on defect resolution are analyzed.The causes leading to radial positioning error are investigated.An algorithm for the radial self-positioning is presented.The experimental results show that the radial self-positioning algorithm can eliminate the array'S space position error effectively and improve the defect resolution.     

Studies on induction hardening of powder-metallurgy-processed Fe-Cr/Mo alloys

Induction hardening of dense Fe-Cr/Mo alloys processed via the powder-metallurgy route was studied. The Fe-3Cr-0.5Mo, Fe-1.5Cr-0.2Mo, and Fe-0.85Mo pre-alloyed powders were mixed with 0.4wt%, 0.6wt%, and 0.8wt% C and compacted at 500, 600, and 700 MPa, respectively. The compacts were sintered at 1473 K for 1 h and then cooled at 6 K/min. Ferrite with pearlite was mostly observed in the sintered alloys with 0.4wt% C, whereas a carbide network was also present in the alloys with 0.8wt% C. Graphite at prior particle boundaries led to deterioration of the mechanical properties of alloys with 0.8wt% C, whereas no significant induction hardening was achieved in alloys with 0.4wt% C. Among the investigated samples, alloys with 0.6wt% C exhibited the highest strength and ductility and were found to be suitable for induction hardening. The hardening was carried out at a frequency of 2.0 kHz for 2-3 s. A case depth of 2.5 mm was achieved while maintaining the bulk (interior) hardness of approximately HV 230. A martensitic structure was observed on the outer periphery of the samples. The hardness varied from HV 600 to HV 375 from the sample surface to the interior of the case hardened region. The best combination of properties and hardening depth was achieved in case of the Fe-1.5Cr-0.2Mo alloy with 0.6wt% C.     

南京长江第四大桥钢箱梁铺装层温度影响系数分析

为了减少现有的钢桥面铺装层车辙深度预估的误差,提出基于长期实测数据的钢桥面铺装车辙评估模型的温度影响系数计算公式。首先对南京长江第四大桥的实测温度概率统计后采用双高斯函数表征其分布;在此基础上修正了现有车辙评估模型中的温度影响系数公式,并利用车辙实测数据对车辙评估模型计算值进行验证。研究结果表明:钢箱梁复合浇筑式铺装层温度可通过双高斯分布描述其概率分布;计入温度影响系数的车辙深度与实际车辙值之间误差较小,相对误差为15.2%。     

基于积分分离式PID控制的耕深调节系统研究

耕作过程中保持耕深稳定是提高耕作质量的重要措施之一.以小型耕耘机的后悬挂旋耕部件为研究对象,提出了一种基于积分分离式PID控制的耕深自动测量和调节的系统,采用双倾角传感器检测耕深,消除了田块自身与绝对水平面倾角的误差影响,通过在误差信号的处理中使用积分分离式PID控制算法,利用Simulink中的SimHydraulic模块对耕深控制系统进行动态仿真研究,与未加入PID控制算法时的仿真结果进行比较,发现几乎消除了系统的耕深超调现象.同时,将响应时间由4.0s左右缩短到1.4s左右,使耕深控制系统的动态响应达到较好的效果.田间试验结果表明,当耕深设定为10cm和16cm时,实测耕深稳定性变异系数分别为6.05%和3.54%,均低于10%,达到了农业机械作业标准所规定的旋耕作业农艺要求.     

考虑强度参数时间和深度效应边坡稳定性分析

针对风化软岩及残积土边坡抗剪强度参数值通常具有深度和时间上的变异性的特点,提出了考虑抗剪强度参数深度和时间效应的风化软岩及风化残积土边坡稳定性分析极限平衡条分法;基于蒙特卡罗抽样思想,提出了一种能同时搜索边坡最危险圆弧滑面及相应最小安全系数的随机搜索算法.最后通过算例对比分析了考虑力学强度参数深度和时间效应前后的边坡临界滑面位置及最小安全系数的变化,分析结果表明:力学强度参数的深度和时间效应对边坡稳定性的影响不容忽视.     

简单图中回路问题的求解

回路是图论中一个重要的概念 ,在软件设计中也有广泛的应用。文章对简单图中回路的搜索问题进行了详细的讨论 ,在原有针对结点的遍历算法基础上构造出适用于路径搜索的算法 ,并着重分析了在无向图中简化搜索路径、提高算法效率的问题 ,使之成为更具一般性的回路搜索算法     

有缺陷钢筋砼结构的可靠性对比分析

钢筋砼结构的缺陷可能是施工造成的先天性缺陷,也可能是使用过程中的腐蚀性介质环境造成的,分别对其可靠度水平的变化规律进行研究,对维修加固决策具有科学意义。本文根据《建筑结构可靠度设计统一标准》要求,研究了先天性施工缺陷结构及后期使用环境中腐蚀性介质影响下的缺陷结构的可靠度特点,分析了其影响因素,对比了不同荷载特征条件下的缺陷结构可靠度的变化规律,为优化维修决策提供了理论支持。