创业团队风险决策的参照点机制

考虑到创业团队风险决策过程中存在参照点效应,探讨了创业团队风险决策的参照点机制.基于创业团队风险决策参照点机制的特点,综合运用集对分析理论和博弈理论,建立了创业团队风险决策参照点机制的集对博弈模型,并探讨了集对博弈模型求解的三个条件.同时,就集对博弈模型进行实证研究,结果表明:集对博弈模型能充分利用研究问题所包含的不确定性信息,将辩证认识与定量描述有机结合起来,是研究群决策的一种有效方法.     

一种基于匹配滤波的空时分组码译码方法

空时分组码译码采用直接法构造判决统计量。两副发射天线、一副接收天线的空时分组码系统的判决统计量还有另外一种构造方法——匹配滤波法。将匹配滤波法进一步推广到多维空时分组码系统,给出了匹配滤波器的构造方法,并在SPW平台上对这种方法进行了仿真。分析和仿真结果表明:提出的增强匹配滤波法易于实现,适用于多维空时分组码系统,其误码性能与直接法相同。     

基于分层马尔可夫决策过程的AUV全局路径规划研究

自主路径规划是自治式水下机器人(AUV)自主能力的重要体现,是保障AUV在大范围复杂海洋环境中自主完成使命作业的关键技术之一。提出了基于马尔可夫决策过程的路径规划方法;并建立了基本的马尔可夫决策模型和结合状态聚类的分层马尔可夫决策模型,同时给出了两种规划的仿真实验及结果分析。实验证明,此类方法能够很好地求解大范围复杂环境内AUV的二维路径规划问题。     

两类不确定奇异时滞系统鲁棒稳定的相关型判据

研究了不确定奇异时滞系统的鲁棒稳定性问题。首先以线性矩阵不等式的形式给出了奇异时滞系统正则,无脉冲模且零解渐近稳定的一种新的时滞相关型判据。通过引入新的参数避免了利用不等式处理交叉项,从而使该判据具有较小的保守性。最后,利用研究结果,给出了两类不确定奇异时滞系统新的时滞相关型鲁棒稳定性判据。     

基于正态分布区间数的概率测度及多属性决策

针对决策中采用均匀分布区间数描述模糊评价值的局限性,提出了应用正态分布区间数进行多属性决策的方法。分析了模糊数的可能性测度,通过概率分布特征量生成正态分布区间数,给出了基于正态分布区间数与一般模糊区间数的互换关系。由正态分布特性确定了正态分布区间数两个模糊算子,采用简化方法对模糊综合评判向量进行模糊集结。采用模糊随机仿真方法生成综合评估值,对统计结果采用模糊均值和方差的排序方法进行决策。实例计算表明了两种方法的有效性。     

基于Kriging模型与重要性抽样的可靠性灵敏度分析

针对因无法获得功能函数的梯度信息而不能使用解析方法的情形,提出了进行可靠性灵敏度分析的高效的仿真方法,首先基于Kriging模型和重要性抽样去计算失效概率,然后通过记分函数(score function)方法求出失效概率对各个参数的偏导数。在计算失效概率时采用反问题(inversion problems)中的不确定性逐步减少(stepwise uncertainty reduction)准则来更新功能函数的Kriging模型,继而在重要性抽样的框架下将失效概率表示成一个"增大"的失效概率与修正项的乘积;而记分函数方法只是对前面抽样方法的一个简单后处理,不需要计算额外的功能函数值.对所提方法使用算例验证表明:当功能函数为昂贵的计算模型或对系统(非单个构件)进行灵敏度分析时,该方法具有较高的计算效率和精度。     

A DEA-TOPSIS method for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management

A hybrid approach of DEA (data envelopment analysis) and TOPSIS (technique for order performance (preference) by similarity to ideal solution) is proposed for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management. Two DEA-based optimization models are constructed to facilitate identifying parameter information regarding criterion weights and quantifying qualitative criteria in TOPSIS. An emergency management case study utilizing data from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) Disasters Database is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analysis procedure.     

Coordination Model Research Based on Command Decision Joint Intension

Command Decision Simulation （CDS） is not only an important and difficult issue in the field of simulation, but also a technique issue to be tackled in the course of collective Modeling and Simulation in Joint Operations Experiment Center. CDS can give support to all kinds of simulation. Using computer to realize the Blue side＇s command deci- sion automatic execution in the operation training simulation system can improve training effect. Using computer to realize the lower level command unit＇s automatic command deci- sion can help to reduce the number of controllers and release them from heavy work. It can also enlarge simulation scale and increase the freedom of the simulation entity especially the command entity, thus enhance the authenticity and credibility of the simulation. Ac- cording to the command decision structure and the Joint Intention Theory, the thesis puts forward the method of making use of Coordination Matrix （CM） to realizing cooperation among the entities in CDS and constructs the calculation sketch of Task Execution, Task Monitoring and Task Replanning. At the same time, the thesis brings forward the CDS structure vision based on Partial Global Planning（PGP）. As CM is an indispensable part of combat simulation, the theory and the method of CDS will become an important part for the theory of Combat Simulation.     

基于ET-WG和ET-OWG算子的二元语义群决策法

针对一类属性值和权重值均为语言评价信息的多属性群决策问题,提出了一种群决策分析方法.首先,为了便于语言评价信息的集结运算,提出了一些新的集结算子:扩展的二元语义加权几何(ET-WG)算子和扩展的二元语义有序加权几何(ET-OWG)算子,并分析了这些算子的性质.然后提出了一种基于ET-WG算子和ET-OWG算子的群决策方法,其核心是通过语言信息的集结运算,得到各方案的群体综合评价信息,从而根据二元语义信息的比较原则,得到所有方案的排序结果.最后给出了一个实例分析,说明了本文提出方法的可行性和实用性.     

Study on the extending multi-attribute decision model of grey target

Based on the distance of interval numbers and the two-stage decision methods, this paper expands the decision model of grey target into some situation under which the decision information and target weights are the interval numbers at the same time. It also gives the optimization method of weights in the grey target. We get the optimum coordinated vector utilizing the combination assigning method, based on the local optimization of various schemes. So it can shift the weights of interval number into real number form and sequence it according to the weighted off-target distance. Finally the effectiveness and practicality of the model is proved by a real project.