基于CBERS CCD数据的鹿洼煤矿塌陷区LUCC检测

本文基于多时相中巴地球资源卫星CBERS CCD数据,以鹿洼煤矿塌陷区为例,利用混合像元分解技术开展土地利用/覆盖变化LUCC检测.分别选取研究区域的2002年、2006年和2010年3个时相的CBERSCCD图像作为遥感数据源,将粒子群优化算法引入到端元提取中,基于线性光谱混合模型提取鹿洼煤矿塌陷区水体、建筑用地、农田和土壤4类地物信息,并对结果进行统计分析.LUCC检测结果表明,2002年至2010年间,鹿洼煤矿塌陷地面积逐年增加,造成大面积农田积水,导致无法进行作物耕种.最后,结合当地政府采取的塌陷地治理措施分析了土地利用变化情况.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

基于系统动力学的企业转型的技术变迁路径分析仿真模型

技术变迁是企业转型的重要途径之一,本文分析了信息化环境下企业转型中技术变迁过程,采用系统动力学方法,构建了技术变迁路径的因果图和系统流图;通过案例仿真实验,获取了影响技术变迁的关键因素,即RD投入和企业信息系统上线率.动态模拟结果表明,这两个因素能够有效提高企业转型的经济转化能力,但其投入量必须控制在合理范围之内.     

芦丁在碳纳米管修饰电极上的电化学性质研究

制备了多壁碳纳米管修饰玻碳电极(MWNT/GC),并研究了芦丁在MWNT/GC上的电化学行为.研究表明,MWNT/GC对芦丁的氧化具有明显的电催化作用.用循环伏安法对芦丁浓度进行了测定,其氧化峰电流与芦丁的浓度在5.0×10-1～1.0×10-4molL-1范围内呈良好的线性关系,线性相关系数为0.9918.     

含趋势项时间序列持久性变点监测

针对核加权方差比率统计量不是监测从非平稳向平稳变化持久性变点一致方法的问题,通过引进一个窗宽参数,提出了一种滑动核加权方差比率统计量来监测含趋势项时间序列从非平稳向平稳变化的持久性.在非平稳原假设下给出了监测统计量的极限分布和经验临界值表,在备择假设下证明了新方法的一致性.模拟结果表明新方法具有比原方法更高的势和更短的平均运行长度,最后通过分析人民币与美元汇率数据进一步说明了该方法的有效性.     

中国古代循环演化思想探讨

循环演化观念是中国古代自然观的重要组成部分,对传统科学文化产生过广泛影响。本文系统考查了古代有关理论所反映的循环演化思想,初步分析了其基本内涵及科学价值,并指出了其局限性。     

交通荷载作用下低路堤动力特性试验研究

结合连盐高速低路堤,对路堤进行了动应力、振动响应等现场测试,分析了路基中附加动应力及振动位移的变化规律.并且通过应力控制的室内动三轴试验,采用一定的动应力频率、不同的循环应力比来模拟交通荷载,研究了在循环荷载作用下,连盐高速公路饱和软粘土的轴向累计应变、孔隙水压力和轴向周期应变软化的变化规律.实验结果表明:路堤中动应力和振动位移随行车速度和车重的增加而增加,随深度的增加而降低,有效影响深度达2.5 m;原状土的临界循环应力比远大于重塑土,承受循环应力能力高于重塑土.因此,要加强浅层路基强度,同时要减少对底部下卧层软粘土的扰动.其结果可为在软土地基上设计和施工低路堤高速公路提供有益的参考.     

海湾型城市湿地的动态变化及其退化因素分析

在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,以厦门市1986和1997年landsat TM影像以及2004年SPOT影像解译数据为基础,对厦门市过去18年间湿地的空间分布及其动态变化进行了研究,并分析了导致湿地退化的主要原因.研究结果表明:目前厦门市湿地类型中以浅海、滩涂和养殖为主,翔安区拥有丰富的湿地土地资源.湿地动态变化主要表现为滩涂、河流、水塘、红树林等自然湿地的减少以及人工湿地-养殖区面积的增加,红树林、养殖区变化最显著,而大多数湿地类型在1986~1997年这个时期变化最显著.湿地总面积呈下降趋势,自然湿地破碎严重化、不断萎缩,而养殖区沿着海岸线快速扩展和蔓延.海岸湿地是厦门独特的风景,但是18年来湿地质量总体处于不断退化之中.污染、资源过度利用、海岸工程、围海造地等是造成厦门湿地退化的主要因素,湿地退化导致生物栖息地恶化以及生物多样性降低等诸多问题.     

含砾岩样中切削齿冲击载荷变化规律试验

通过直径为19 mm的单齿切削含砾岩样试验,研究砾石直径、胶结强度、切削深度、切削齿后倾角等对切削齿所受冲击载荷的影响规律,分析PDC钻头钻进砾石层的损坏机制。结果表明:切削齿受到的冲击力随着砾石层胶结强度、砾石直径的增加而增大,随切削齿切削深度的增加呈指数增加;相同切削面积下,切削齿受到的冲击力随着后倾角的增大而增大;当冲击载荷大于切削齿的极限冲击强度时,切削齿将直接产生碎裂;即使冲击载荷不能达到切削齿的极限冲击强度,周而复始的冲击载荷达到切削齿的冲击韧性时,切削齿将发生冲击疲劳损坏。     

Global vegetation change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years①

Vegetation cover change is critical for understanding impacts and responses of vegetation to climate change. A study found that vegetation in the regions between 45°N-70°N was increasing using normalized difference vegetation index( NDVI) from 1981 to 1991 ten years ago. The global vegetation growth has changed because of climate change in recent twelve years( 2001- 2012). After thorough analysis based on satellite data,it is found that it is evident that the global vegetation changed( NDVI) little,and it is increasing slightly in Northern hemisphere while it is decreasing slightly in Southern Hemisphere. For different latitudes,vegetation is increasing 0.17% every year from 60°N to 70 °N( R~2= 0.47,P 0.013),while the vegetation is decreasing 0.11% every year from 10°N to 10° S( R~2= 0.54,P 0.004). For different continents,the vegetation in South America is decreasing 0.16% every year( R~2= 0.78,P 0.0001) and it is increasing 0.05% every year in Asia( R~2= 0.28,P 0.072) and 0.25% every year in Oceania( R~2= 0.24,P 0.1). The analysis of global vegetation in different seasons indicates that spatial distribution of global temperature and water vapor will affect the spatial distribution of vegetation,in turn,the spatial distribution of vegetation will also regulate the global temperature and water vapor spatial distribution at large scale. The growth and distribution of vegetation are mainly caused by the orbit of the celestial bodies,and a big data model based on gravitational-magmatic change with the solar or the galactic system as its center is proposed to be built for analyzing how the earth's orbit position in the solar and galaxy system affects spatial-temporal variations of global vegetation and temperature at large scale. These findings promise a holistic understanding of the global climate change and potential underlying mechanisms.