一类流行病数学模型的Hopf分支

利用平面向量场极限环分支的Hopf分支理论．研究了一类具有非线性传染率kI^p-1S^q的SIRS流行病传播动力学模型．首次给出了模型中指教为p≥2,q≥1的一般整数时,系统正平衡点的精确表达式,证明了此类系统至少可以存在两个极限环,并给出了Hopf分支的数值计算及模拟结果．该简化平衡点坐标表达式的方法适用于一般情形,从而使奇点焦点量的计算简洁、可行．     

非线性阻尼下光滑不连续振子极限环的全局演化

针对光滑不连续振子,提出了一种优化的广义谐波函数摄动法,得到其极限环的振幅与系统参数之间的解析关系式以及极限环的解析近似解。同时,基于微分方程定性理论,建立了该振子极限环特征量的解析计算公式。利用上述结果,可围绕极限环何时产生、如何分岔、在何处消失以及稳定性如何等问题,对具有复杂非线性阻尼项的光滑不连续振子极限环的全局演化过程展开定量分析。通过将本文所得之结果与龙格-库塔法之结果进行对比,验证了所提优化方法的可行性和可靠性,为研究强非线性振动系统解的全局演化问题,提供了新的参考方法。     

中国某轿车生命周期内能耗和环境排放特性

以某国产轿车为实例,利用生命周期评价方法,探讨国产轿车在能源消耗和环境排放方面的特点,同时为类似产品的生命周期评价提供方法上的借鉴.     

控制污染物排放的支线机场跑滑结构优化仿真

民航运输在LTO(Landing and take-off)循环阶段的大气污染物排放对地面人员和近地环境危害较大,应主要通过减少地面滑行时间进行控制。考虑支线机场常见的单跑滑结构给出飞机地面滑行时间计算方法,基于该方法提出了污染物评价指标并建立了支线机场航空器污染物排放评估模型。以某支线机场为例,使用Matlab建模计算得出污染物评价指数最小滑行道口位置。利用AirTOp仿真验证了模型计算结果有效性,优化后的跑道出口位置将使该机场污染物总指数较原位置降低21.7%。     

考虑集装箱生命周期的空重箱班轮运输组织优化

为在空箱调运时考虑空箱的维修成本和废弃收益,根据投入使用的时间区分空箱所处的生命阶段.在备选班轮航线和重箱运输需求确定的情况下,构建混合整数规划模型,优化班轮航线网络,重箱运输路径,新造箱的投入地点,老旧空箱的报废地点和各航次使用哪个生命阶段的空箱来执行运输任务.以中国,日韩,东南亚,欧洲和美国五个区域为对象的实证分析结果表明,93%的新造箱在中国投入使用,64%的老旧空箱在欧洲和美国退役,74%的由中国到美国的运输用箱处于高龄阶段或退出阶段.     

北桥设计中的总线周期精确事务级建模

总线周期精确事务级建模能解决系统设计中的仿真精度和速度之间的矛盾。以北桥中的总线设计为背景,采用SystemC中接口方法调用的原理,实现了对Wishbone总线的周期精确事物级建模,并给出了具体的实现方法和测试方法,具有一定的通用性。     

完全图Kn分解成五个顶点的星和圈

讨论了完全图Kn分解成五个顶点的星和圈的存在性,给出完全图Kn存在{S5,C5}-强制分解的充要条件是n≥9.以及完全图Kn存在{S5,C5}-分解的充要条件是n≥5(n≠6,7).     

Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

网格计算及其在图像处理中的应用

介绍网格计算的主要技术特点和优势,并探讨网格计算在图像处理中的应用.网格的并行计算能力有效的提高了超分辨率图像处理算法的计算效率,加快算法的运行时间.