基于改进RPCA的连铸过程数据可靠性研究

连铸过程数据的可靠性是连铸二冷动态控制系统成功应用的前提。针对正常连铸冷却过程慢时变、非稳态和多输入多输出特性,提出了基于改进递归主元分析方法监控连铸二冷配水过程数据的可靠性,这其中包括了用于建模的协方差阵、主元和两种报警控制限的递归更新,并通过小波除噪消除样本数据的噪声和奇异点。现场数据仿真结果表明应用此方法进行连铸过程监控可以明显减少误报的发生。     

Adaptive SPC monitoring scheme for DOE-based APC

Automatic process control （APC） based on design of experiment （DOE） is a cost-efficient approach for variation reduction. The process changes both in mean and variance owing to online parameter adjustment make it hard to apply traditional SPC charts in such DOE-based APC applied process. An adaptive SPC scheme is developed, which can better track the process transitions and achieve the possible SPC run cost reduction when the process is stable. The control law of SPC parameters is designed by fully utilizing the estimation properties of the process model instead of traditionally using the data collected from the production line. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed adaptive SPC design approach.     

基于GSPN方法的柔性制造系统过程模型和性能分析

应用广义随机Petri网方法,对柔性制造系统进行建模和分析,提出了控制策略和优化方法.针对柔性制造系统的离散性,对整个系统的过程模型进行分析.利用广义随机Petri网结合马尔可夫链的方法,确立了系统的配置参数,得出了系统的平均运行时间,机床的平均使用率,系统的生产率,故障概率,对系统的优化和生产效率的提高以及柔性的提高提供了理论支持.最后,通过柔性制造系统实例,对该方法进行了检验.     

两点源干扰下的反辐射导弹误差距离进一步探讨

结合现有非相干两点源抗反辐射导弹模型的研究成果,通过分析反辐射导弹的导引和运动机理,进一步细化了反辐射导弹的攻击过程,在此基础上对两点源干扰下的反辐射导弹误差距离进行了探讨.针对现有模型中存在的一些不足,分析了多种因素对反辐射导弹误差距离的影响,进一步完善了非相干两点源干扰下的反辐射导弹误差距离模型.通过示例对给出的模型进行了分析验证.     

活性污泥法污水处理过程动态仿真研究

根据污水处理过程的实际需要,在国际公认的活性污泥模型ASM1模型的基础上,获得了能够反映污水处理系统出水水质的简化模型.利用LabVIEW软件平台,开发出了基于该模型的污水处理过程动态特性的仿真系统.系统具有反映污水处理过程动态信息量大、直观性好、人机交互方便等特点.通过对污水关键水质参数COD、BOD5、SS进行仿真,证明了该仿真系统的有效性.     

死亡强度服从Ornstein-Uhlenbeck跳过程的长寿债券定价模型

长寿风险不仅使寿险公司和社会保障部门不堪重负,而且对经济和社会的发展产生严重威胁.以对冲长寿风险为目的,根据我国国情设计一种长寿债券,与债券相关联的生存指数是通过Ornstein-Uhlenbeck跳(OUj)过程刻画的死亡强度得到的.考虑到我国利率市场和保险市场的特点,利用正双曲利率模型对债券进行贴现,并通过王氏变换给出不完全市场中的长寿债券定价模型.最后,依据我国生命表数据进行实证研究.     

面向农产品安全的关键质量链分析

针对农产品质量安全控制问题,在传统过程能力分析的基础上,将农产品食品链视为一个过程网络,应用PERT/CPM的基本思想,提出了基于质量损失的关键质量链分析评价方法。最后以菠菜产品的种植加工进行了实例分析。     

Research on consistency measurement and weight estimation approach of hybrid uncertain comparison matrix

The consistency measurement and weight estimation approach of the hybrid uncertain comparison matrix in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） are studied. First, the decision-making satisfaction membership function is defined based on the decision making＇s allowable error. Then, the weight model based on the maximal satisfactory consistency idea is suggested, and the consistency index is put forward. Moreover, the weight distributing value model is developed to solve the decision making misleading problem since the multioptimization solutions in the former model. Finally, the weights are ranked based on the possibility degree approach to obtain the ultimate order.     

如何恰当激励零售商的过程创新行为

回购契约可以协调单供应商单零售商组成的供应链系统的订货行为,然而本文研究发现这一契约将过份地激励零售商的过程创新行为,从而损害供应商及整个供应链的利益．在零售商的过程创新行为不可被供应商观察和测量的条件下,利用数量折扣契约机制修正了原有回购契约,并利用这种综合契约机制恰当地激励了零售商的过程创新行为,使得供应链在创新行为下达到协调．     

Interval Time Series Analysis with an Application to the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate

Traditional econometrics has long employed ＂points＂ to measure time series data. In real life situations, however, it suffers the loss of volatility information, since many variables are bounded by intervals in a given period. To address this issue, this paper provides a new methodology for interval time series analysis. The concept of ＂interval stochastic process＂ is formally defined as a counterpart of ＂stochastic process＂ in point-based econometrics. The authors introduce the concepts of interval stationarity, interval statistics （including interval mean, interval variance, etc.） and propose an interval linear model to investigate the dynamic relationships between interval processes. A new interval-based optimization approach for estimation is proposed, and corresponding evaluation criteria are derived. To demonstrate that the new interval method provides valid results, an empirical example on the sterling-dollar exchange rate is presented.