Beating the VAR: Improving Swedish GDP Forecasts Using Error and Intercept Corrections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model for GDP, relative to a comparable vector error correction model (VECM) that recognizes that the data are characterized by co‐integration. In addition, an alternative forecast method, intercept correction, is considered for further comparison. Recursive out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated for both models and forecast techniques. The generated forecasts for each model are objectively evaluated by a selection of evaluation measures and equal accuracy tests. The result shows that the VECM consistently outperforms the VAR models. Further, intercept correction enhances the forecast accuracy when applied to the VECM, whereas there is no such indication when applied to the VAR model. For certain forecast horizons there is a significant difference in forecast ability between the intercept corrected VECM compared to the VAR model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

准同期参数测量算法研究

在发电机并网过程中,对信号的频率、相位、幅值等参数要进行快速、准确的测量,传统的测量方法参数误差比较大.本文提出利用窗函数及频谱校正的DFT算法来对信号进行参数测量,仿真结果表明,该算法不需要对电压信号进行整周期采样,可以对频率在较大范围内变化的信号进行准确测量,从而较好的解决了由于并列双方电压的频率不断变化而引起的测量误差大的问题.     

基于Hough变换的列车客运票图像倾斜校正

为解决列车客运票防伪和自动验票中的列车客运票图像倾斜校正的问题,提出了一种基于Hough变换的列车客运票图像倾斜校正方法.该方法根据现有倾角检测算法及列车客运票图像的特点,将列车客运票图像的前景与背景分离,在对图像前景进行水平轨迹线平滑的基础上提取文本行特征线,然后采用分级Hough变换的思想实现倾角的检测,最后用直线拟合的方法实现图像的校正.实验结果表明了所提出的算法的有效性和可靠性.     

论高校图书馆对学生读者不良行为的矫正

论述了高校图书馆对学生读者不良行为矫正发生教育作用的心理学机制,分析了影响矫正教育效果的各种因素,并提出了相应的措施。     

PTN技术的发展与应用

从业务向AllIP转型对承载网提出了更高的需求,对MSTP和以太网技术的分析,提出了引入PTN技术的优势;PTN技术的探讨到对PTN设备的阐述,提出了以PTN和OTN联合组网的方式的发展前景。     

Prediction from the One‐Way Error Components Model with AR(1) Disturbances

In this paper we extend the works of Baillie and Baltagi (1999, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables Models, Hsiao C et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 255–267) and generalize certain results from the Baltagi and Li (1992, Journal of Forecasting 11 : 561–567) paper accounting for AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In particular, we derive six predictors for the one‐way error components model, as well as their associated asymptotic mean squared error of multi‐step prediction in the presence of AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In addition, we also provide both theoretical and simulation evidence as to the relative efficiency of our alternative predictors. The adequacy of the prediction AMSE formula is also investigated by the use of Monte Carlo methods and indicates that the ordinary optimal predictor performs well for various accuracy criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模型势MCP应用于分子间相互作用的研究

使用模型势MCP计算了含重元素的氢键和vail der Waals相互作用体系的几何结构与结合能。结果表明，在MP2水平，应用MCP基组研究分子间相互作用时，可以使用Boys和Bernardi提出的均衡校正法进行基函数重叠误差（BSSE）校正；与同一水平的全电子基组相比，经BSSE校正后的结合能AEcP平均相对误差为5．2％，结果准确，但是BSSE普遍较大；使用MCP基组的计算时间远小于全电子基组，MCP方法的效率随原子的电子层数增加而提高。     

以新的哲学观念理解物理世界

文章首先通过理论分析提出新的哲学观念即世界存在方式的基本原理:一切存在都是按照感性形式与理性形式互为前提相互依存而成为一体的方式存在着;感性形式是以具体而丰富多彩的方式表达着它的内在理性形式,而理性形式是以抽象而单纯威严的方式支配着它的外在感性形式;二者之间不存在从属关系.接着对常见事物、微观粒子、宏观物体、真空进行考察和分析,得到并展示了整个物理世界的存在方式,同时佐证了世界存在方式基本原理.进而得出物质和精神也是依存体,遵循世界存在方式基本原理.     

关于CTQ系列接触网支线故障智能切除装置防雷方式的探讨

介绍了CTQ系列接触网支线故障智能切除装置的结构原理、性能特点、实践应用,针对此装置安装在户外现场的实际情况,探讨了对直击雷和感应雷的防护措施。