Application of mesoscale modeling optimization to development of advanced materials

The rapid development of computer modeling in recent years offers opportunities for materials preparation in a more economic and efficient way. In the present paper, a practicable route for research and development of advanced materials by applying the visual and quantitative modeling technique on the mesoscale is introduced. A 3D simulation model is developed to describe the microstructure evolution during the whole process of deformation, recrystallization and grain growth in a material containing particles. In the light of simulation optimization, the long-term stabilized fine grain structures ideal for high-temperature applications are designed and produced. In addition, the feasibility, reliability and prospects of material development based on mesoscale modeling are discussed.     

A threshold stochastic volatility model

This article introduces a new model to capture simultaneously the mean and variance asymmetries in time series. Threshold non‐linearity is incorporated into the mean and variance specifications of a stochastic volatility model. Bayesian methods are adopted for parameter estimation. Forecasts of volatility and Value‐at‐Risk can also be obtained by sampling from suitable predictive distributions. Simulations demonstrate that the apparent variance asymmetry documented in the literature can be due to the neglect of mean asymmetry. Strong evidence of the mean and variance asymmetries was detected in US and Hong Kong data. Asymmetry in the variance persistence was also discovered in the Hong Kong stock market. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

重油组成的分子系综表征法

采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟方法，建立了表征重组成的等效分子系统法，提出了重油分子构造规则和约束及关计算机算法。Ａｌｂｅｒｔａ重油的模拟结果和实验数据比较表明，其系统计结构基团浓度，密度、沸点、环、桥和侧链分布，饱和烃含量均与实测一致，从而为利用纯化合物物化性质研究复杂的重油建立起桥梁。     

BESⅢ测量(日)(1530)-→γ(日)-的蒙特卡洛研究

基于BESⅢ合作组的离线软件框架BOSS,利用该合作组产生的1 225 M单举J/Ψ事例,研究在BESⅢ探测器上实现测量到超子辐射稀有衰变过程Ξ(1 530)-→γΞ-的分支比的可能性.以无信号事例的单举J/Ψ事例样本为背景样本,以纯信号蒙特卡罗事例为信号样本,控制信号事例,在分别假设观测到Ξ(1 530)-→γΞ-衰变过程信号显著水平为3σ和5σ的情况下,得到该衰变过程对应的分支比.     

一种提高样品放射性活度测量准确度的新方法

在使用高纯锗γ谱仪测量样品的放射性活度时,探测器对γ射线的探测效率是影响测量准确度的一个重要因素.目前使用的两种得到探测效率的方法——标准样品法和蒙特卡洛法,因为各自的局限性,都存在一定的系统误差.结合两种方法,提出并建立了一种能够消除前两种方法系统误差,获得更准确的探测效率的新方法,即用蒙特卡洛方法计算待测样和标准样的探测效率的比值,再乘以实验测量得到的标准样的探测效率,得到待测样品的探测效率.所建方法的正确性通过蒙特卡洛软件计算的模拟实验得到了验证,并证明了新方法能够完全消除标准样品法的系统误差,并且在绝大多数情况下消除了蒙特卡洛法的系统误差.     

分布式电源中最佳蓄电池容量的机会约束规划

为解决分布式电源中最佳蓄电池容量的计算问题，提出了电池容量优化机会约束规划的教学模型。在分析决定电池容量的关键因素和分布式电源中风能、太阳能以及用户负载随机特性的概率模型基础上，将电池容量的最优化问题归结为机会约束规划问题，得到了优化计算的教学模型，并应用遗传算法，结合随机模拟技术求解，得到了最佳电池容量。实例计算表明该方法是有效的。     

一次γ辐射通量密度的蒙特卡罗模拟

利用蒙特卡罗方法,模拟计算了不同情况下点源、均匀线源以及均匀圆盘源的一次γ辐射通量密度,并与解析方法计算结果进行分析、比较,在误差范围内,两者很好的符合。说明蒙特卡罗方法是解决γ射线屏蔽问题的一种方便、可靠的方法。     

侵彻子母弹对机场跑道的封锁概率计算研究

论述了侵彻子母弹对跑道的封锁概率的MonteCarlo计算方法,并针对某型侵彻子母弹战斗部建立了数学模型和仿真模型,进行了实例计算,结果表明用该方法计算侵彻子母弹的封锁概率,简单、快速且可靠。最后分析了仿真次数对计算精度的影响。     

川西平原农田啮齿动物群落变量的模拟研究

利用Monte Carlo方法，模拟了川西平原农田啮齿动物群落变量的总和、年间和月间变动情况及统计学特征，其变量是：物种数、生物量、物种多样性和均匀性。真实群落4个变量的所有值均在模拟群落变量的95％置信区间内。物种数和物种多样性显示出了相似的变动规律。真实群落4个变量与模拟群落4个变量也显示出了相似的变动规律。当零假设为这些变量服从正态分布时，用单样本Kolmogorov-Smirnov方法检验，得到的结果与偏度和峭度显示的结果并不完全一致。结果说明，要估计一个变量的置信区间，需要有足够大的样本含量。     

Modelling non-normal first-order autoregressive time series

We shall first review some non-normal stationary first-order autoregressive models. The models are constructed with a given marginal distribution (logistic, hyperbolic secant, exponential, Laplace, or gamma) and the requirement that the bivariate joint distribution of the generated process must be sufficiently simple so that the parameter estimation and forecasting problems of the models can be addressed. A model-building approach that consists of model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting is then discussed for this class of models.