The variance ratio and trend stationary model as extensions of a constrained autoregressive model

This paper shows that a constrained autoregressive model that assigns linearly decreasing weights to past observations of a stationary time series has important links to the variance ratio methodology and trend stationary model. It is demonstrated that the proposed autoregressive model is asymptotically related to the variance ratio through the weighting schedules that these two tools use. It is also demonstrated that under a trend stationary time series process the proposed autoregressive model approaches a trend stationary model when the memory of the autoregressive model is increased. These links create a theoretical foundation for tests that confront the random walk model simultaneously against a trend stationary and a variety of short‐ and long‐memory autoregressive alternatives. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

谈机电一体化技术的发展趋势

机电一体化技术是跨学科技术,近年来发展迅速,其发展趋势是光机电一体化、柔性化、智能化、仿生物系统化、微型化。     

国外航空电子对抗装备现状及发展趋势

航空电子对抗手段已成为夺取制空权、“制电磁权”的重要保证，受到世界各国的高度重视，形成了完备的装备体系。文中结合典型装备，从电子情报侦察及战场监视、电子进攻、自卫电子对抗等三个方面分析了国外航空电子对抗装备现状及发展趋势。     

国有企业私有化的产权交易模式比较

采用经济学数理模型,以产权交易过程中的信息搜寻成本和交易佣金成本为分析视角,通过比较两种产权交易模式的异同,认为各国政府应该逐步建成统一的产权交易服务体系,降低企业的信息搜寻成本和交易佣金成本,这将是未来国有企业私有化过程中产权交易模式的最终发展趋势。     

论我国采摘旅游的现状与发展方向

从采摘旅游这种新型的旅游休闲方式的特点及其发展条件入手,分析了目前我国采摘旅游中出现的问题,初步构建了采摘旅游的发展模式,对促进我国采摘旅游的科学有序开发和可持续发展有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

自行研制大功率刮板输送机势在必行

阐述了国内外刮板输送机的发展概况,分析了国内输送机技术与国外的差距,探讨了我国刮板输送机发展的要求和趋势。     

合成生物学研究的特征与趋势———基于CiteSpace 的数据分析

21世纪初以来合成生物学在理论研究和应用研究方面均取得许多瞩目的 研究成果.以WoS(Web of Science)核心合集收录的2000-2019年合成生物学领域4765篇文献为研究对象,利用文献计量法和知识图谱可视化相结合的方法,系统回顾和展望合成生物学相关研究成果.研究结果表明:美国在合成生物学领域起主导作用,2014年开始中国在该领域的贡献度和影响力超过英国,成为第二大贡献国;合成生物学的基础研究、代谢工程、线路工程以及技术应用均取得重要进展,并形成较为完整的学科体系;理论与应用研究协同发展将是合成生物学未来发展的主线.     

海河流域50年来参考腾发量的时空变化规律及其影响原因

根据海河流域34个站点1957—2007年逐日实测气象资料,结合旋转正交函数(REOF)、参数t检验法和Mann-Kendall检验方法对海河流域参考腾发量(RET)及其相关的4个气象变量(平均气温、风速、相对湿度和日照时数)的时空演变特征进行了分析,在此基础上,分析了RET对气象变量的敏感性,定量评估了气象变量对RET变化的贡献程度,探讨了影响RET变化的可能原因.结果表明,过去50年,海河流域59%的站点RET呈现显著下降趋势,主要分布在东部平原区,呈现显著上升趋势的站点主要分布在西部山地区.依据REOF分析结果,海河流域可以划分为3个区域:西部区、北部区和东部区;北部区和东部区的RET都呈现出显著的减少趋势,而西部区则呈现出显著的增加趋势;相对湿度是对RET最敏感的气象变量,风速和日照时数次之,平均气温对RET的敏感性最小;海河流域西部区RET的增加主要是由该区域显著减少的相对湿度所引起的,而北部区和东部区显著下降的风速和日照时数是导致这两个区域RET减少的主要原因.     

基于薄板理论的空区顶板稳定性分析

考虑作用于顶板上的均布载荷及作用于顶板上方中心处的集中载荷情况下,基于四边固支矩形薄板的纳维叶解法,分别导出了均布载荷与集中载荷作用下矩形顶板的挠度方程与应力表达式.分析得到四边固支矩形板在均布载荷和集中载荷作用下的高应力主要出现在板的中心以及长边的中点处,影响应力的因素主要包括厚度、载荷大小、板的尺寸以及泊松比.依据第一强度理论建立均布载荷和集中载荷共同作用下的顶板安全性控制方程,并求解得到其安全临界顶板厚度,并通过工程实例验证了该控制方程的正确性.     

Change of surface cover greenness in China between 2000 and 2010

Surface greenness reflects the situation of vegetation cover.Vegetation index calculated from the Red and Near Infrared bands of remote sensing images,whose values indicate the level of photosynthetic activity,is monotonically related to surface greenness when vegetation canopy does not fully cover the background soil.Especially for desert regions,vegetation index is positively correlated with vegetation coverage.Therefore,vegetation index can be used to study the change in greenness of desert areas.This study collected MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2000 to 2010 and analyzed their change over China in this period.The results showed that an increasing trend of NDVI occurred over 66.84% (OLS fitting) or 64.27% (LAD fitting) of China,indicating that China’s greenness is increasing overall.Meanwhile,desertification of China decreased.Areas showing large increase in greenness are found in Shaanxi,Shanxi,Ningxia,Henan,Shandong,Qinghai,and Gansu while regions with large decrease in greenness are found in Northeast Inner Mongolia,South Tibet,Jiangsu,and Shanghai.Changes of Qinghai,Gansu,Xinjiang and South Tibet could probably be driven by climate factors.Decrease of greenness in Northeast Inner Mongolia was related to agricultural reclamation.Decrease of greenness in Jiangsu and Shanghai was related to rapid urbanization.Climate factors did not exhibit obvious correspondence to the large increase in greenness in Shaanxi,Shanxi,Ningxia and Gansu,indicating that the changes might have been caused by human factors.The reduction of desert areas in China could probably have been caused by human management and protection at the national scale.