基于变异系数的我国城市化地域差异演变研究

利用我国26个省会城市和4个直辖市的市辖区1998～2007年的非农人口和建成区面积统计数据,采用增长率和变异系数等指标对中国的城市化水平格局及地域差异变化进行研究.结果表明:研究期内我国东部城市化水平差异一直明显高于中、西部地区,但东中西部的差异有所缩小;城市化速率呈现明显的地域差异,2003年之前东部城市化速度最快...     

磁晶各向异性的高次项对纳米材料的磁滞回线的影响

在一般的磁滞回线计算中,磁晶各向异性能的高次项被忽略.运用一致转动的模型,在外磁场与易轴方向分别平行和垂直的情况下,通过分析磁晶各向异性能的四次方项对铁磁材料磁化过程的影响,得到磁滞回线的形状随磁晶各向异性能四次方和二次方项常数的比值λ的不同而发生变化,并给出不同λ时的矫顽力解析公式.结果对铁磁和铁电材料都适用.     

基于PCA和相位差校正法的风切变预警算法

为了提高相干激光雷达风切变预警算法的预警率,提出一种基于主成分分析（principal component analysis,PCA）和相位差校正法的风切变预警算法。首先,利用PCA对雷达回波信号进行低阶主成分向量提取以实现信号重构,提高信噪比。其次,采用基于快速傅里叶变换的相位差校正法对回波信号峰值频率进行校正,降低回波信号能量泄露。然后,分别利用旋转电机实验数据和小型飞机实验数据对所提算法进行性能评估。结果表明,采用所提算法估计相干激光雷达回波信号峰值频率的平均绝对误差为0.26 MHz,对实际低空风切变的预警率为92.31%。所提算法可以有效降低相干激光雷达回波信号频率估计误差,实现低空风切变预警。     

中国人口系统结构的灰色关联分析

根据1998～2003年中国人口数据,利用灰色系统理论和灰色关联分析模型法建立由总人口、城镇人口、乡村人口等17个影响人口增长的关联因素构成的指标体系及灰色关联分析模型,对中国人口系统结构进行关联分析,以期找出影响人口增长的主要因素,为我国人口系统的建模、预测、决策、规划、管理和控制提供了的依据,以便实现人口与资源、环境、经济和社会的可持续发展.运算和系统分析结果显示人口增长的主要影响因素为:女性人口、城乡人口、年龄结构、性别结构和人口自然增长率.其中,15～49岁的育龄妇女、农村人口和人口自然增长率3个因素对总人口和年净增人数影响最大.本文中国人口系统结构的灰色关联分析结果较符合中国人口的实际情况,为中国人口发展与控制的管理决策提供了一种新的有效方法.     

大涡结构在有压梯度边界层流中的演化机理

采用直接数值模拟方法,研究大涡结构在不同压力梯度作用下的非线性演化特征.计算结果表明:在逆压梯度条件下,大涡结构幅值快速增长,形成很强的流向涡结构,雷诺应力迅速增加,这可能导致猝发现象的产生;与此相反,在顺压梯度边界层流中,大涡结构很难被激发起来,易于流体流动趋于稳定状态.这些结论与某些理论和试验结果一致.     

湍流多尺度相干结构间歇性的PIV实验研究

利用粒子成像测速(PIV)系统测量了湍流边界层中流向速度平面,并对湍流多尺度相干结构统计特性进行了实验研究.利用连续子波变换,计算了不同尺度、不同法向位置的子波系数概率密度函数.结果发现缓冲区有着更强的间歇性.利用子波系数量化湍流间歇性的方法,应用推广的自相似律(ESS),计算了子波系数结构函数的标度指数.研究表明:当多尺度相干结构被提取出后,利用子波系数计算的ESS标度律就符合科尔莫戈罗夫提出的线性标度律,验证了多尺度相干结构是湍流边界层产生奇异标度律的原因.此外,利用PIV系统测量的数据,给出了流向平面内的以子波系数表达的能量分布.这种方法有利于进一步对多尺度相干结构在空间平面内的辨识与特性进行研究.     

赫哲人口的现状与发展态势

适度的人口数量,较高的人口素质和合理的人口结构会对民族的进步、社会的可持续发展具有积极的作用。新中国成立后,赫哲人口数量有了很大增加,人口质量也得到一定程度的提高,人口结构趋于合理。但从现状和发展态势看,还存在一定问题。掌握赫哲族人口现状,认清人口发展态势,可为赫哲族发展创造良好的环境,并为国家制定人口较少民族的人口政策以及和谐社会的构建提供相关依据。     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

Diet composition of an invasive population of Lithobates catesbeianus (American Bullfrog) from Argentina

The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus has been introduced around the world, with invasive populations reported from almost all South American countries. A population of this species was introduced in the Calingasta department of San Juan province, which is an arid environment in western Argentina. This work provides information on the dietary composition of an invasive population of L. catesbeianus, and compares the degree of dietary overlap between adults and juveniles. Stomach contents of 169 bullfrogs (82 adults and 87 juveniles) were analysed. Adults consumed 40 prey taxa and Hymenoptera (Insecta) was the most numerous prey item (41.8%), followed by Araneae (13.6%) and Aeglidae (13.4%). Juveniles consumed 29 prey taxa and Hymenoptera constituted the highest percentage in prey number (77.2%). The trophic overlap niche index at the same level shows a value of 0.64 overlap in dietary community between adults and juveniles of this bullfrog. Aeglidae was volumetrically the most important trophic item (25.4%), followed by Anura (25.02%). Our results showed that cannibalism in bullfrogs is more common than the consumption of native anurans, coinciding with that reported in other populations of introduced bullfrogs. The high similarity in the diets of both size classes and the association between the size of the predator and prey suggest that the impact caused by bullfrogs throughout their ontogeny is high and probably has an impact on their prey. Freshwater crabs are the main items in the diet of Lithobates catesbeianus in other introduced populations and are usually the most conspicuous at our study site. The crabs in freshwater ecosystems are part of the lowest trophic level in the food chain. The major threats to the southern region’s freshwater crabs include deforestation, farming and exotic species. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet and high overlap between adults and juveniles.     

Non-invasive genetic study and population monitoring of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) (Mammalia: Ursidae) in Kastoria region – Greece

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Greece is considered endangered but little is known about the genetic status and the exact size of local populations. Non-invasive genetic sampling was used in this study to investigate the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the brown bear population in the Kastoria region (northwest Macedonia, Greece) and to estimate its population size. Estimation of demographic parameters was based on innovative, well-evaluated methods that can provide estimates from a single sampling session. DNA was extracted from hairs, scat and blood samples and subsequent amplification of 10 microsatellite loci allowed the identification of a minimum number of 75 living bears in the study area while the mark–recapture-based analysis resulted in a point estimation of 219 individuals. Relatively high diversity values, lack of heterozygosity deficiency as well as estimated effective population size, support the Kastoria bear population having good conservation status.