山东泰安近53年的气候变化及其对果品生产的影响

文章对泰安市近53年的气候变化规律作了分析．发现谊地区气温上升．降水减少，日照降低,对全球变化响应显著．运用近53年的气候特征值重点对苹果作了气候适宜性评价．表明苹果的主要限制性因素是高温．水果产量和气候特征值的相关分析发现．高温已经对苹果和梨的产量产生了负面影响．果品结构正在调整中．苹果的比例在下降．其他优质高产品种桃子、葡萄、樱桃等的比重在增加．     

A local positive feedback of the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system on interdecadal timescales

SINCE THE 1990S, THE CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INTERDE- CADAL TIME SCALES BECAME THE FOCUS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH MISSIONS[1―3]. ON TIME SCALES OF A DECADE OR MORE, THE OCEAN CIRCULATION PREDOMINATEDHEAT BALANCE AND HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE, S…     

Variability of surface circulation in the South China Sea from satellite altimeter data

11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height （SSH） anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea （SCS） surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.     

土壤有机质空间变异特征研究

以面积4．7hm^2的农田为研究区，采用网格法选取了92个观测点取样，测定0～15cm耕层土壤的有机质含量。结果表明，土壤有机质表现为强烈的空间自相关，有机质的空间变异性主要由结构性因素引起，其变异函数符合指数模型。     

青藏高原地表0cm温度的时空变化特征

利用青藏高原86个气象观测站从建站到2001年历年各月地面0cm温度资料，在分析高原冬季，夏季和平均地表温度基本气候特征的基础上，通过主成分分析、主值函数和功率谱分析等方法，对高原地表温度异常变化的空间结构和时间演变趋势作了诊断研究。结果表明：高原地表温度总体表现为海拔高度与纬度的函数，海拔越高温度越低，纬度越高温度越低；高原地表温度第一载荷向量除南部小范围的负值外大部分地方为一致的正值，即第一空间尺度表现为整体的一致性，而第二载荷向量为南正（负）北负（正），即第二空间尺度表现为南北差异；第一主分量在近30年的变化中表现为明显的上升趋势，即主要反映了高原主体偏北和东北部地区地表温度有显著升高趋势；而第二主分量的缓慢下降说明高原中部和东南部地表温度呈减小趋势。代表站温度变化表现出7～9年的周期震荡。     

1998年以来中国气温持续极端偏暖的事实

利用国内地面气温观测资料,首先对数据进行了质量控制,考虑了序列的均一性和空间抽样误差问题,计算了近55年来(1951-2005)中国地面平均气温的变化幅度。结果显示,1998年为中国气温近55年之最暖年份,大约偏暖1.10℃(相对于1971-2000年间30年气候平均状况);自1998-2005年8年间,除2000年全国平均气温距平约在0.29℃外,其余7年相对于1971-2000年气候标准值均高出0.60℃以上,从最热年1998年开始依次排列为:1998年(1.10℃)、2002年(0.88℃)、1999年(0.86℃)、2004年(0.86℃)、2005年(0.72℃)、2003年(0.68℃)、2001年(0.63℃),这一事实值得引起人们深入关注。     

Palaeoclimatic distribution models predict Pleistocene refuges for the Neotropical harvestman Geraeocormobius sylvarum (Arachnida: Opiliones: Gonyleptidae)

This paper primarily aims to test a Pleistocene refuge-type scenario, as previously proposed for the gonyleptid Geraeocormobius sylvarum, a semi-deciduous forests dweller in subtropical Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Palaeodistributional models of this species were built using MaxEnt for two Last Glacial Maximum (LGM = 21,000 years ago) simulations – Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) – and for 6000 years ago (?6k = HCO, the Holocene climatic optimum). Both LGM models retrieved a fragmented pattern. For CCSM, range was split into multiple, scattered fragments. MIROC resulted in very few patches, with a decided range reduction because of a strong humidity drop. Models for ?6k recovered a moderate range expansion. No past connection between the core area and the yungas was predicted. Analysis of variables importance showed that two precipitation predictors (bc18, precipitation warmest quarter; bc14, precipitation driest month) and two temperature predictors (bc7, temperature annual range; bc9, mean temperature driest quarter) scored as the most influencing overall. The Limiting Factor analysis recognized them as limiting too, in different parts of the species range. LGM palaeomodels of G. sylvarum are compatible with the refuge hypothesis invoked in previous molecular analyses, to explain the high genetic diversity found in the core area. Additionally, the results reinforced the hypothesis of the recent anthropogenic origin of the yungas disjunct populations.     

汾河流域降水量及蒸发量的空间变异性分析研究

借助于地质统计学方法对汾河流域的多年平均降雨量和蒸发量的空间变异性进行了分析,揭示了多年平均降水量和蒸发量的空间变异特征,并应用Kriging方法进行空间插值.分析结果表明,汾河流域多年平均降水量和蒸发量在不同的分割距离范围内有不同的空间相关性,多年平均降水量具有比较明显的地带性,蒸发量分布变化地带性不强.     

区域农业气候系统功能的数值分析

由热、水、光诸要素所构成的区域农业气候资源是一个复杂的多层次结构系统。本文针对福建省南亚热带地域所建立的数学模型,分别从单项资源、总资源、资源效能、资源利用率等角度对农业气候系统的功能进行分析评价。