2000—2015年黑河流域中上游NDVI时空变化及其与气候的关系

选择西北第二大内陆河黑河流域中上游为研究区, 以2000—2015年逐月NDVI数据、月均温和月降水数据、DEM数据和基础地理信息数据为数据源, 采用RS, GIS 和数理统计分析等方法, 从区域尺度和像元尺度揭示区域NDVI时空变化格局及其与气候的关系。结果显示: 1) 2000—2015年, 黑河流域中上游NDVI总体上呈现增长趋势, 其中夏季的增长速率最大, 明显高于春季和秋季; NDVI快速增长区主要位于中游地区黑河干流两侧的绿洲地带; NDVI显著下降区位于张掖市市辖区、酒泉市市辖区以及其他县城所在地; 2) 夏季NDVI与降水相关性较高, 而春、秋季NDVI与气温相关性较高; 夏季NDVI与夏季降水的显著相关性主要体现在远离黑河干流的大片低覆被草地、戈壁以及荒漠, 而邻近黑河的人工绿洲地带NDVI与降水没有显著相关性; 3) NDVI响应降水的时滞效应较明显, 夏季NDVI对降水的响应普遍存在1个月的时间滞后, 最长能滞后2个月。研究结果可以为区域植被恢复和生态系统管理提供参考。     

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction, a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction (PREC) is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical prediction. Analyses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction model. Besides, the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of China Meteorological Administration/ National Climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Niño3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate system. It is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some extent. Thus the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.     

信阳油菜农业气候资源与产量形成的关系研究

通过对信阳市近8年油菜生长发育期间的农业气候资源及其与产量形成之间的关系进行分析研究,发现信阳市的气候条件是适合油菜生产的.     

Mechanisms for the hiatus in global warming

The observed global mean temperature is the highest on record for the past decade but has plateaued to form an apparent ＂hiatus＂ in global temperature rise, with an almost zero short-term trend. Several speakers presented results on the hiatus and suggested possible mechanisms.     

近百年来长江洪水变化的初步分析

采用水文时间系列的逐项分析法,统计分析了近百年来长江洪水变化的总体趋势与主要周期,发现近百年来长江洪水变化存在增大的总体趋势,并有４０ａ,３５ａ等主要周期变化。这与近百年气候的趋暖性变化及太阳活动的周期性强弱变化有关。     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

湍流动能闭合对区域气候模拟效果影响的机理研究

利用湍流动能(TKE)闭合改进了RegCM2中原高分辨的边界层参数化方案,并用1998年夏的NCEP/NCAR气候资料对TKE闭合方案影响区域气候模拟效果的机理作了探讨.研究表明,在区域气候模式中采用TKE闭合的边界层方案可以将垂直扩散直接与湍流变化联系起来,改善地表通量及各层垂直扩散项的计算,使地表通量和垂直扩散的日变化及各层分布更为合理,从而改进模式对各预报量及降水的模拟,提高模式的模拟能力     

中国林业政策和森林变化对气候变化的影响及对策研究

林业政策对森林及相关行业的影响是非常明显的,《森林法》从宏观上确定了我国林业２发展的基本方向,有关林业科学的政策则对技术在林业中的作用具有决定性意义。国家对林业生产进行的总体布局和重点 建设使中国的林业建设步入一个新的发展时期森林是陆地上最重要的生态系统。森林对地球生的作用是重要的,同时生境的变化必然导致森林的变化,二者之间必然发生相互影响。在气候变化情景下,中国森林和农林业用地面积将发生变化,森     

短期气候预测的预报集成方法试验研究

依据武汉市 ６ 月、７ 月降水距平百分率 ３ 种预测模型的１１ 年独立样本试验资料,进行了预报集成方法的试验研究．通过 ４ 种方案共 ６ 种集成方法的试验比较得出：集成预报模式比原预报模式总体误差得到改善,采用不同的集成方法,同一原始模式的权重系数可以不同,并且只有提供好的原预报模式才能得到好的集成模式     

中国历史时期海面变化(Ⅱ)——潮灾强弱与海面波动

在分析海面波动对潮灾强弱影响机制的基础上,对近２０００年来我国沿海地区２０００多条潮迷史料进行了统计分析,从潮灾相对强度变化曲线来看,近２０００年来,唐代前期和中期以及两宋时期为两个明显的潮灾高潮期。