基于UML的作战任务规划和推演控制算法研究

军事作战任务规划和态势推演的控制算法是实现军事作战仿真的重要条件.简洁的作战任务规划和高效的推演控制算法能够极大地提高作战仿真的效率.概述了作战任务规划系统的构成,提出了面向对象的实体模型建模方法和实体行为的描述规范,以此来创建概念模型.在此基础上提出了基于UML的作战任务两层规划方法和基于解析信息存储结构的推演控制算法.并且应用到作战想定编辑和推演工具的开发中.给出了作战任务的实例验证.     

Twenty-five years of change in scleractinian coral communities of Daya Bay （northern South China Sea） and its response to the 2008 AD extreme cold climate event

Coral reefs worldwide are becoming increasingly and detrimentally impacted upon by a variety of factors including significant climate changes, such as global warming and increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity. Generally, the persistence of coral reefs, especially at low-latitudes, is governed, in part, by sea surface temperatures not exceeding the critical limit （-30℃） at which mass mortality can occur. Thus, it is thought that corals living at high-latitudes （i.e., currently cooler sea surface temperatures） will likely respond more favourably to hypothesized future temperature increases than corals living at low-latitudes （i.e., currently warmer sea surface temperatures）. Consequently, high-latitude coral communities may have the potential to act as regions of refugia for many coral species in the face of potential future global warming. The Daya Bay （22°31′--22°50′N）, northern South China Sea, contains several high-latitude non-reefal coral communities and represents one of the most northerly distributions of scleractinian corals within the region. Significantly, Daya Bay has experienced dramatic warming in both air and sea surface temperatures throughout the past 50 years. In this paper, we analyze 25 years of change in the Daya Bay coral communities, based both on historic surveys and our latest 2006--2008 regional ecological surveys. Our results suggest that, contrary to predictions, there have been significant declines in coral cover within the Daya Bay during the past 25 years （i.e., 76.6% coral cover in 1983/1984 to only 15.3% coral cover by 2008）. Such changes also reflect a significant shift in the most abundant coral species, from Acropora pruinosa to Favites abdita. Most of the modern coral communities became established between 15 and 30 years ago, corresponding to a period of increased winter sea surface temperature. However, very few colonies have become established within the last 15 years, despite a more intense period of warming. By taking into account additional factors, we hypothesize that direct anthropogenic impacts, rather than climatic events, have both restricted the development, and drove the decline, of Daya Bay coral communities in the last 15 years. The Daya Bay has also been subjected to occasional extreme cold events during the past 50 years, with the most recent occurring in early 2008 （13 January-13 February）. During the 2008 cold event, the lowest air temperature reaches only 6.6℃, and the mean sea surface temperature for February fall to 〈 14℃, including six continuous days at 12.3℃. Significantly, the sea surface temperatures fall below the hypothesized critical lower temperature threshold （-13℃） that commonly leads to mass mortality in scleractinian coral communities. Surprisingly, our coral community surveys, conducted both before （August 2007） and after （late February 2008） the extreme 2008 cold event, demonstrate that the Daya Bay coral ecosystems are barely impacted upon during the cold period. Those observations suggest that the Daya Bay scleractinian coral communities have developed adaptations to low sea surface temperatures. Overall, our data support the hypothesis that high-latitude coral communities, such as Daya Bay, have the potential to act as areas of refugia for scleractinian corals in the advent of potential future global warming.     

Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and variation of East Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium

To study the long-term variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index （IAPO）, representing a zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, is reconstructed over the past millennium. During the Little Ice Age （LIA）, the variability of the reconstructed IAPO is closely linked to dry-wet anomalies in eastern China on the centennial scale. This correlation pattern is consistent with the observation during the current period, which suggests that the reconstructed IAPO may generally represent the centennial-scale variation of the EASM and rainfall anomalies over eastern China during the LIA.     

On the interannual variation in spring atmospheric inter-hemispheric oscillation linked to synchronous climate in China

Based on NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data and surface observations of Chinese stations, inter-hemispheric oscillations (IHO) of spring atmospheric mass on an interannual basis in conjunction with the linkage to the synchronous climate over China are studied. Results suggest that the spring IHO exhibits a significant seesaw pattern for air mass at bi-hemispheric mid-high latitudes, with a consistent vertical circulation structure. The EOF decomposition of zonally mean surface pressures without signals of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) indicates that the EOF1 IHO feature is remarkable, with the corresponding time coefficients correlated with the spring IHO index (I_IHO) at 0.93; the spring IHO bears a close relation to the synchronous climate in China, showing the surface pressure, temperature and relative humidity over the country to be in good correlation with I_IHO; the spring duststorms in Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have bearing on IHO. Positive-phase I_IHO promotes the strengthening of the Siberian high, during which zonal winds between 60°E and 150°W show a longitudinal teleconnection structure extending from the Arctic to Antarctica, leading to positive westerly wind anomalies over Asia, affecting the spring climate of China.     

植物功能群及其在生态学研究中的应用

植物功能群是研究复杂生态系统结构和功能的有效途径,有别于spec ies-spec ies方法。该方法被提出后受到广泛重视,并用于生态系统研究的各个领域。介绍了植物功能群的概念、划分标准,总结了目前功能群在实践研究中的应用,包括在生物多样性研究、干扰因素存在下草地生态系统变化研究以及全球气候变化模型建立方面的应用,分析了在植物功能群定义和划分标准中存在的分歧,认为对功能群定义及划分标准的完善是今后功能群研究的关键。     

聊城市区土地生产潜力初探

为聊城市区土地生产潜力的估算方法作了阐述,并对结果进行了分析,提出提高土地生产潜力的主要途径。     

Joint Implementation Analysis: A Case Study of the Japan-China Coke Dry Quenching (CDQ) Project

Introduction“Joint Implementation” (JI) ,in this paperdefined broadly to include a number of relatedmechanisms such as Activities Implemented Jointly(AIJ) and the flexible mechanisms defined byKyoto Protocol:Joint Implementation betweenAnnex I Parties and the Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) ,has recently attractedincreasing attention.The experience in real JIassessment,however,is very limited.Despite thedifferent forms of JI mechanisms,a wide range ofgeneral problems need to be re…     

气候变化背景下全球极端天气事件GDP损失率评估

本文通过研究不同碳排放情景下未来70年全球气温上升的可能性,量化了极端天气事件对全球GDP可能造成的损失.首先,本文采用DICE模型评估了未来每十年全球GDP年损失率的离散概率分布;然后利用本文提出的一种新的广义对数正态分布函数,对未来每十年全球GDP年损失率的概率分布进行了拟合;最后,通过计算极端天气事件发生频率分别小于0.5%, 1%, 5%情形时GDP损失率的范围,讨论了不同碳排放情景下GDP损失率尾部分布的差异,分析了温度变化对损失率的影响.结果表明:在不同碳排放情景下,全球年GDP损失率的概率密度曲线尾部均表现出小概率大损失的特征,本研究可为有关机构做好气候变化背景下巨灾风险损失的量化分析提供依据.     

需求不确定电子供应链的鲁棒运作模型

建立了由多个供应商、多个顾客构成的电子供应链在顾客需求不确定情况下的单目标鲁棒运作模型.供应链中,每个供应商均可以通过电子市场或直接将自己生产的多个产品供应给具有不确定需求的多个顾客,供应链追求整体运作成本最小化.采用已知概率的情景集合描述顾客的不确定需求,利用基于情景分析的鲁棒优化方法建立供应链的运作模型.为了检验所建模型的鲁棒性及运作目标的数目对建模方法有效性的影响,利用已有文献的相关数据进行了仿真计算,并对两者的计算结果进行了比较.结果表明,在不确定需求的扰动下,供应链的运作模型确实具有鲁棒性,而且运作目标的多少对建模方法的有效性没有影响.     

贵阳二环林带的城市生态建设

本文介绍城市园林绿地对改善生态环境,提高居民生活环境质量和精神文明建设有着重要作用,并进一步提出了贵阳市城市绿化环境建设对策和绿地生态建设的战略措施来加深对城市建设的认识.