Interannual variation of annual precipitation and urban effect on precipitation in the Beijing region

The large scale character of the interannual variation of precipitation and the urban effect on local annual precipitation anomaly are investigated in this paper based on the 1960-2000 annual precipitation observations at 20 stations in the Beijing region.The results show that:the annual precipitation in the Beijing region possesses the large scale variation character with the linear trend of-1.197/10 yr,which corresponds to a total reduction of 27.82 mm in annual precipitation in the 41 years;the local annual precipitation anomalies(percent of the normal 1960-2000)show a positive center near the urban area,i.e.urban precipitation island(UPI),whose intensity increases with the linear trend of 0.6621%/10 yr,opposite to the interannual trend of large scale precipitation over the Beijing region;changes in the UPI are also associated with the intensity of synoptic processes of precipitation,and when the synoptic processes are strong(wet years),the intensity of UPI strengthens,while the synoptic processes are weak(dry years),and the UPI disappears in the Beijing region.     

基于GIS的漳州市土地气候生产潜力分析

为充分利用漳州市的气候资源,合理布局农、林、牧、渔业生产,促进农业经济结构的调整,根据福建省漳州市的多年平均气候资料,运用桑斯维特纪念模型和迈阿密模型,对漳州市土地气候生产潜力进行估算,并用地理信息系统(GIS)软件ArcGIS进行可视化处理,得出土地气候生产潜力由西向东、由北向南高低变化的地域分异特征,其结果所反映的漳州市土地气候生产潜力的分布趋势与当地的农业生态气候的地域分布大体一致。     

Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling

To study Earth’s climate, scientists now use a variety of computer simulation models. These models disagree in some of their assumptions about the climate system, yet they are used together as complementary resources for investigating future climatic change. This paper examines and defends this use of incompatible models. I argue that climate model pluralism results both from uncertainty concerning how to best represent the climate system and from difficulties faced in evaluating the relative merits of complex models. I describe how incompatible climate models are used together in ‘multi-model ensembles’ and explain why this practice is reasonable, given scientists’ inability to identify a ‘best’ model for predicting future climate. Finally, I characterize climate model pluralism as involving both an ontic competitive pluralism and a pragmatic integrative pluralism.     

韶关旅游气候环境及其变化分析

气候环境是一个地区旅游业发展的基本因素,文章利用韶关多年的气象统计资料,通过对各气象要素的统计分析和对有效温度的计算,定量分析了韶关市旅游气候环境,得出该市旅游气候条件的特点.在此基础上分析近55年旅游气候环境变化及其成因,为全面合理地开发利用韶关旅游气候资源提供科学依据.     

中国东部地区土地利用和植被覆盖的历史演变

土地利用和植被覆盖变化研究,是当前国际科学研究的前沿领域之一,是研究气候变化的重要基础.特别是如何获得过去植被覆盖变化的定量信息对于进行气候模拟至关重要.在根据文献研究恢复出的近300年来中国东部部分省区的垦殖率分布的基础上,通过对清代、民国期间各地史志记载的分析以及现代土地利用类型分布图的比较,得出了空间分辨率为0.5°×0.5°的近300年来中国东部部分省区土地利用和植被覆盖变化分布图.结果显示,近300年来,长江中下游、华北地区的土地类型以耕地为主,其余省则主要为森林覆盖,并因地理因素等原因可分为不同的森林类型.此外,草地、交通居住用地等所占土地面积比例较低,因此在植被类型变化上尚处于次要地位.这一定量化结果为区域气候模拟提供了必需的植被场.     

ERT-VR:一种地震救援训练虚拟仿真系统

ERT-VR系统主要包括指挥员训练子系统与小组训练子系统两部分。指挥员训练子系统基于多通道立体显示系统构建沉浸环境,小组训练子系统以头盔显示器与数据手套等为主要交互设备。ERT-VR设计与实现了一个训练想定生成器,生成的想定数据类似于试题,管理人员分配给受训人员。受训过程被实时记录与评估。阐述了ERT-VR系统组成、功能结构、运行过程与运行实例。     

侦察信息融合处理仿真系统的设计与实现

介绍了一种侦察信息融合处理仿真系统的设计和实现方法，该系统由战场剧情仿真系统、数据融合处理系统和数据库系统构成。其中数据融合处理系统是整个系统的关键部分，由基于jerk模型的机动目标融合跟踪模块、基于模糊推理的目标识别模块以及态势感知模块组成。系统模拟了主动雷达，被动雷达，敌我识别器，通信侦察设备等多种传感器对海空战场态势进行综合感知的信息处理流程，构建了侦察信息融合处理仿真系统，并对一个典型的战场场景进行了仿真实验。     

青藏高原过去2000年来气候环境变化研究

以现代过程研究为先导，以冰芯记录为手段，进行气候环境信息的挖掘，将影响环境的自然与人为因素进行整体研究，对环境长期演变过程中的重大自然事件和人为事件，特别是灾害事件进行剖析，从而提示青藏高原过去2000年来气候环境的变化特征与机理；阐明极低温环境下的微生物演化特征；揭示历史时期青藏高原大气温室气体含量变化的原因及其与气候变化之间的关系，并评价人类活动对环境的影响。     

Signals of Antarctic Circum-polar Wave over the Southern Indian Ocean as recorded in an Antarctica ice core

Oxygen stable isotopic and ionic records, covering a period of 1745--1996, are recovered in DT001 ice core drilled in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica.Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the annually resolved glaciochemical time series, we find the first EOF (EOFI) represents sea-salt aerosols and is the proxy of sea level pressure (SLP) over a quasi-stationary low in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO). δ^18O represents the sea surface temperature (SST) of the same ocean area. In the past two decades, four climatic waves as represented by SLP and SST proxies are found in the DT001 ice core, which in coincident with four Antarctic Circum-polar Waves (ACW) as revealed by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The phase difference between SST and SLP in the ice core is also coincident with that in ACW. Both ice-core record and reanalysis suggestthat there were no signals of ACW during 1958--1980, none during the overall recording period between 1745--1996, as there is no regular phase difference between SST and SLP.The ACW signal after early 1980s is probably attributable to the climate shift occurring over Antarctic Peninsula-Drake Passage region.     

区域气候模式RegCM3产流方案的改进及数值试验

用改进的水文模型与详细陆面方案、大气模式耦合的区域气候模式模拟研究了夏季风气候陆面水文、气候特征．针对区域气候模式RegCM3中陆面方案BATS地表产流方案的不足，将更符合观测实际地考虑入渗和降水非均匀性的地表产流方案VXM并入BATS，利用改进后的区域气候模式模拟了我国1990、1991和1998年的夏季风气候，并采用我国160站的月降水资料及UNH-GRDC（University of New Hampshire，USA-Global Runoff Data Center）月径流资料对1990、1991模拟结果进行了验证．结果表明，地表产流方案的改进对区域气候模式RegCM3模拟降水的影响不大，但模拟的径流有较大提高目与实测更为一致．