徐州近百年来冷暖变化的特点

本文分析了一九零五至一九八五年徐州气温观测资料,认为本世纪四十年代是徐州气候变化的转折点,气候由暖逐渐变冷的特点十分明显。据专家们估计,未来气候将由冷再向暖方向发展。在讨论冷暖变化时,城市环境的改变对气候影响是一个不可忽视的问题。     

确定架空线路控制气象条件的多目标优化法

架空线路应力控制气象条件的判定,需要考虑控制气象条件及弧垂限制等条件,一般采用临界档距判定法或试推比较法处理.本文建立了解决该问题的多目标优化数学模型,并采用罚函数法求解模型,算例证明了相对于传统方法的优越性.     

地方气候环境下氯离子扩散系数的研究

介绍氯离子对混凝土耐久性的影响及氯离子扩散模型,分析混凝土中氯离子来源、氯离子扩散机理,指出了确定氯离子扩散系数时所遇到的问题.结合地方气候环境,建立水灰比、温度、湿度、时间对扩散系数影响的四维扩散系数模型,并将四维模型改进为有利于工程应用的二维模型,通过实例说明模型的有效性.     

明清时期广东地区气候变冷对社会经济发展的影响

通过对比广东15世纪末至19世纪末即LIA期间的气象灾害、战乱、人口发展等几方面的数据,研究了明清时期气候变冷对广东地区社会经济发展的影响,发现这一时期农业生产的衰退、生态环境的恶化、战乱和农民起义的增多、人口发展的减缓以及瘟疫次数的增加,都与气候变冷有明显的相关性.同时指出,气候变冷的各个可能的影响结果之间,又有着密切的联系,它们相互影响,相互作用,严重阻碍了明清时期广东社会经济的正常发展.     

基于气候灾害影响下的韧性社区评价及建设研究进展

社区作为城市系统中的主要组成单元,在提高城市韧性表现方面,扮演着十分重要的角色。从韧性概念在社区维度的特殊性和表达机制、韧性评价相关政策与方法、社区韧性建设实践等角度,梳理了国内外社区韧性研究进展,总结了社区气候灾害韧性的关键科学问题,提出了中国建设韧性社区的政策建议。     

气候因素对病毒流行的影响

综述了SARS病毒、登革热病毒、流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒流行与气候的关系,认为病毒产生于一定的自然条件和环境,特定的气候因素是病毒流行的推手,相同的气候更有利于病毒的流行。超出域值之外,气候因素则会限制甚至阻断病毒传播。探讨了不同气候因素的作用,可完善病毒性疾病的预警机制,有助于对可能产生的疫病暴发提前做好防治准备。     

Sea surface temperature records of core ZY2 from the central mud area in the South Yellow Sea during last 6200 years and related effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current

Sea surface temperature (SST) records in the South Yellow Sea during the last 6200 years are reconstructed by the unsaturation index of long-chain alkenones (K 37 U ’) in sediment core ZY2 from the central mud area.The SST records varied between 14.1 and 16.5°C (15.6°C on average),with 3 phases:(1) A high SST phase at 6.2-5.9 cal ka BP;(2) A low and intensely fluctuating SST phase at 5.9-2.3 cal ka BP;and (3) A high and stable SST phase since 2.3 cal ka BP.Variation of the SST records is similar to intensity of the Kuroshio Current (KC),and corresponds well in time to global cold climate events.However,the amplitude of the SST response to cooling events was significantly different in different phases.The SST response to global cooling event was weak while the KC was strong;and the SST response was strong while the KC was weak.The difference in amplitude of the SST response is possibly caused by the modulation effect of the Yellow Sea Warm Current which acts as a shelf branch of the KC and a compensating current induced by the East Asia winter monsoon.The warm waters brought by the Yellow Sea Warm Current cushion the SST decrease induced by climate cooling,and both the Kuroshio and East Asian winter monsoon play important roles in the modulation mechanism.The SST records display a periodicity of 1482 years.The same period was found in the KC records,indicating that variation of the SST records in the central South Yellow Sea is strongly affected by KC intensity.The same period was also found in Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic and Arabian Sea sediment cores,showing a regional response of marine environmental variability in the East China Seas to that in the global oceans.     

Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model

Variations in global atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium are simulated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The model was driven by reconstructions of both natural forcing (solar variability and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol). The model results are compared against proxy reconstruction data. The reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was out of phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the last millennium. During the ...     

The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change

A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy. The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data, and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model. A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000. The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.     

温室气体稳定目标下部门减排责任分解方法

为了探讨气候变化背景下温室气体排放权分摊机制这一研究难点,综述了温室气体减排责任分解方法的研究现状,遵循"共同但有区别的责任"思想并利用WRE稳定性廓线和IEA/SMP交通模型,开发了SMP-WRE模型。应用该模型建立了一种产业部门具体减排责任的分解方法,并以中国轻型车部门为例,展示了该方法的实现过程。结果表明:全球轻型车的基准排放是目标排放的2~4倍,说明轻型车部门实现450×10-6和550×10-6的CO2稳定水平难度很大。目标分解后的地区排放变化率欧美国家较小、中国较大,原因是欧美汽车市场规模饱和,而中国汽车正爆发式增加,排放增加不可避免。