多专家集成式决策支持系统探讨

本文在文献[1]给出集成式决策支持系统(I—DSS)的基本概念及提出I—DSS的两种主要形式的基础上,对I—DSS的形式之一——多专家集成式决策支持系统(MEI—DSSS)作了较深入的探讨。本文阐述了MEI—DSS提出的原因,给出了MEI—DSS的基本概念,概述了MEI—DSS同相关学科和技术的关系,提出了MEI—DSS的基本结构框架,并从知识表示、推理机制以及多专家系统动态组合进行问题求解的算法实现等方面探讨了该系统在大型决策中的应用。本文最后提出了MEI—DSS今后有待深入研究的课题。     

Artificial Neural Network for Combining Forecasts

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Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

伸缩方程Lpc解的讨论

研究一般扩张矩阵伸缩方程L^pc解的性质，相同分形中的选代函数系统构造tile和tiling性质，克服了通用方法中的不足，得到了这类方程存在紧支撑解的充要条件，从而推广了有关的结果．     

渐近线性二阶Hamilton系统的非平凡周期解

利用极小极大方法得到了一类渐近线性二阶Hamilton系统的非平凡周期解的存在性结果。     

关于古典概率的几种解法

通过介绍古典概率的计算方法,使学生在解题过程中能正确分析题意,运用适当的方法获得准确的答案,从而提高分析问题和解决问题的能力.     

森林面积分布系统的最优控制存在性问题

本文研究森林面积分布系统的最优控制问题。本文将林木总和长消率作为控制变量，以“范数最小”来衡量其最优性，利用空间Ｌ＾２（０，Ｔ）Ｔ〉０的自反、光滑和严格凸性，给出了森林面积分布系统最优控制的一个存在性定理。     

Methodological foundations of systems methodologies

In social systems science generally, and in management science particularly, recent developments in the variety of types of specific problem-solving methodologies (under the rubric of hard and soft systems approaches) have given an impetus to a line of inquiry, as well as debate on the nature of those methodologies. On the one hand, there has been the view that what we are witnessing is a form of Kuhnian crisis. On the other hand, a complementarist view of developments has been argued and a contingency approach proposed. But one thing has been common among the competing views: a belief that the prospects for further advances in the design and application of those methodologies, and in resolving the current controversies, lie in serious attempts to reconsider and clarify the underlying metatheoretical assumptions and concerns. This paper is an attempt to contribute to such an endeavor. A brief exposition of three methodological foundations (namely, empiricism, hermeneutics, and critique) is made, not only with the purpose of highlighting the nature as well as the limits of their epistemological and ethical claims, but also as a basis for illuminating both the nature of contemporary work on systems inquiry, design, and problem solving and the ongoing debate on what constitutes appropriate criteria for choice of specific methodologies.     

“变截面管中跨声速气流”一文引理的证明

本文对T·P·Liu教授关于“变截面管中跨声速气流”一文的关键性引理给出一个清楚的证明,以使这篇有影响的开创性论文更加完美。     

A user designer-based systems methodology

This paper develops the argument that in organizational redesign it is desirable to utilize user-designers as the architects for the redesign. A methodology is developed which emphasizes the use of ideal systems models by user-designers to plan for the organization's future. The methodology involves the creation of an ideal system model, then an analysis of the present system through the creation of root definitions and process models of the existing system. Then root definitions and process models for the idealized system are created. Finally, the two are compared and desirable changes are generated which bring the existing system toward the idealized.