Forecasting the business cycle without using minimum autocorrelation factors

We introduce a forecasting technique based on multivariate ideas previously applied in remote sensing. The approach has the trivial but nonetheless fundamental purpose of dividing the information inherent in the time series into important and unimportant. Important information is used for forecasting purposes while the unimportant is discarded. Although related to vector autoregression, giving asymptotically the same estimates, there are reasons to believe that the approach gives better precision of parameter estimates for finite samples as well as more precise predictions.     

城市水环境质量评价图的表示法探讨

本文以城市水环境图的编制原则为指导,集中探讨了城市水环境质量评价图上的几类新颖实用的表示方法,即点状、线状、面状和三维符号法,综合图型法(单项符号的配合使用),以及系列图表示法.     

带扭结的广义幂级数环的特殊性质

考虑带扭结的广义幂级数环[[R^s,≤,λ]]的一些特殊性质.证明了[[R^s,≤,λ]]是reduced左PP-环当且仅当R是reduced左PP-环,且B（R）的每个S可标子集C在B（R）中有最小上界;若环R无非零零因子,则[[R^s,≤,λ]]是Dedekind有限环当且仅当R是Dedeking有限环.     

Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time-series will be below,or above,a given value

We presented people with trended and untrended time series and asked them to estimate the probability that the next point would be below each of seven different reference values. The true probabilities that the point would be below these values were 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90 and 0.99. People overestimated probabilities of less than 0.50 and underestimated those of more than 0.50. Consequently, their subjective probability distributions were flatter than they should have been: people appeared to be under confident in their estimates of where the next point would lie. This bias was greater for the trended series. It was also greater in a second experiment in which people estimated the probability that the next item would be above the reference values. We discuss reasons for these effects and consider their implications for decision making.     

一个概率问题的级数解法

文中提出的概率问题，如果单凭概率论本身的知识很难解决，本文借助高等数学中的几何级数巧解这个概率问题，因而显得独特新颖。     

时间序列的谱分析法在叉车振动分析中的应用

本文用时间序列分析理论对叉车的振动进行了分析，提出了结构修改方案．对结构修改后的叉车进行测量，证明性能有所改善．     

大系统递阶控制问题求解

利用Ｔａｙｌｏｒ级数性质将大系统递阶控制问题转化为代数方程的求解问题，并以算例表明了方法的有效性．     

随机转移矩阵与双无限环境中马氏链的构造及互通性

利用随机环境中的转移矩阵,解决了双无限环境中马氏链的构造问题,引入了互通和强互通概念,并在平稳环境的条件下,研究了互通和强互通的关系。     

基于序列LP的不等式组的解法及Matlab软件实现

给出了一个求解线性不等式组的序列LP方法，且当不等式组矛盾时，可找出不相容的不等式．文中阐述了序列LP的构造以及应用Madab软件予以实现的实例，     

N个不同部件串联而成的M/G/1可修排队系统

考虑服务台由N个不同部件串联而成的M/G/1可修排队系统,其中服务台正常当且仅当N个部件都正常.在假定每个部件的寿命服从指数分布,而故障部件的修理时间服从一般分布下,通过引入服务台的"广义忙期",提出了分析服务台有关可靠性指标的一种新方法,用该方法更加简洁的讨论了服务台的许多感性趣的可靠性指标,得到了一些重要的可靠性结果,推广了已有的结论.