给排水工程专家系统（WTPES）不精确推理策略

从知识和证据的不确定性，可信度值的更新及传播等方面进行分析，介绍专家系统不精确推理技术在给排水工程中的应用情况，以ＷＴＰＥＳ软件包为例，介绍知识库结构及不精确推理模型的建立方法。     

重磁震平面统计建模反演技术的理论探讨

目的 为重磁震的平面联合统计建模反演提供理论依据与方法基础,力图将国内目前占主导地位的重震、磁震剖面的单项理论建模反演推进到新的层次。方法 基于场论,以独立地质系统为控制单元,把重磁震共存的物性界面深度作为与其一一对应的极值重磁异常的二元复合逆函数,利用差值趋势面分析,按单元在空间(波数)域内逼近其逆函数的泰勒(傅立叶)级数分布,建立重磁震联合反演的随机地质模型。结果 重磁震平面统计建模反演技术,成功应用于胜利油田新区和潜山区的油气勘探实践,编绘出仅靠地震难以成图的深层构造图。结论 随着高分辨率重磁界面识别技术的不断提高,该项探索性研究成果有望推进综合地球物理联合建模反演技术的发展。     

Taxonomy Based Models for Reasoning: Making Inferences from Electronic Road Sign Information

Taxonomy Based modeling was applied to describe drivers’ mental models of variable message signs (VMS’s) displayed on expressways. Progress in road telematics has made it possible to introduce variable message signs (VMS’s). Sensors embedded in the carriageway every 500m record certain variables (speed, flow rate, etc.) that are transformed in real time into “driving times” to a given destination if road conditions do not change. VMS systems are auto-regulative Man-Machine (AMMI) systems which incorporate a model of the user: if the traffic flow is too high, then drivers should choose alternative routes. In so doing, the traffic flow should decrease. The model of the user is based on suppositions such as: people do not like to waste time, they fully understand the displayed messages, they trust the displayed values, they know of alternative routes. However, people also have a model of the way the system functions. And if they do not believe the contents of the message, they will not act as expected. We collected data through interviews with drivers using the critical incidents technique (Flanagan, 1985). Results show that the mental models that drivers have of the way the VMS system works are various but not numerous and that most of them differ from the“ideal expert” mental model. It is clear that users don’t have an adequate model of how the VMS system works and that VMS planners have a model of user behaviour that does not correspond to the behaviour of the drivers we interviewed. Finally, Taxonomy Based Modeling is discussed as a tool for mental model remediation.     

条件推理中不同前后件概率组合的实验效应

通过控制条件命题中前件与后件发生概率的高低，在直接提供和间接提供概率信息的情况下，考察了4种不同前后件概率组合（LL、LH、HL、HH）的条件命题对4种条件推理（MP、DA、AC、MT）的影响，结果表明：大学生对前后件的主观概率估计会影响他们的推理行为，表现出高概率结论效应，而客观概率信息对推理过程的影响却不明显；大学生对4种条件推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的条件概率值成正比。     

知识背景对归纳推理的影响

归纳推理研究领域出现了一些引人注目的实验研究：Heit和Rubinstein等的研究表明了知识背景对归纳推理存在不可忽视的影响；Medin等以“相关”，Loman等以“一致性”作为变量的研究，比较系统地探讨了知识背景对归纳推理的影响；对于这些实验研究结果，假设评价模型、贝叶斯模型、PPP模型以及相关理论都分别能够做出部分的解释；在对上述理论模型进行评价的基础上，提出了利用贝叶斯网络解释知识背景对归纳推理的影响的观点。     

从认知的角度浅谈汉语因果句的英译技巧

本文从认知的角度出发,主要以复句、单句以及介于两者之间的紧缩句为对象,对这些句子中的因果关系的表达法及实质作归类总结,试图从认知和句法学的角度找到分析因果关系的契合点,从而探索汉语因果句的英译技巧.     

扰动模糊集相似度限定推理方法

作为模糊控制理论基础的模糊推理，近年来得到广泛的研究和应用。结合模糊推理的Mamdani算法与J．EBaldwin的真值限定推理方法，在扰动模糊集上定义了一种模糊推理的新方法一扰动模糊集相似度限定推理(FMP和FMT)方法，提出了扰动模糊集相似度限定推理方法，该方法是满足关系再现的并对关系再现问题进行了讨论，给出了满足还原算法的条件。     

Incorporating Fuzzy Inference in Active Database Rules

Active databases react to stimulation, or event from inside or outside the system without user or application interference through Events Conditions Actions (ECA) rules (triggers). ECA rule is defined as: ON event IF condition THEN action, which means when an event happens, if the condition is satisfied then the corresponding action is executed. The nature of ECA rule makes it an appropriate means to model dynamic character of systems, as gained much studies during recent years. Traditional ECA rule is crisp, which means their events, condition(s) and action(s) are accurate. As indicate that ECA rules can only represent precise knowledge. But knowledge is usually fuzzy in engineering. A concept of fuzzy ECA rules characterized with fuzzy event, fuzzy condition and fuzzy action is proposed in this article. The realization avenues of fuzzy triggers are discussed. The work we have done blazes a way in representing approximate syntax in active database application systems. At last a case of " overheating al     

复杂过程建模的模糊集和神经网络方法

为了建立复杂生产过程的被仿真对象的模型,将系统的定性信息（语义规则）和定量信息相结合,提出了一种基于ｐ－范数的近似推理神经网络模型,并给出了一种将梯度方法和最小二乘方法结合起来的交互式学习算法,最后通过实例对算法进行了验证,取得了满意的仿真结果,为进一步科学决策提供了依据     

井下监控系统运行可靠性的一种监测方法研究

研究井下监控系统的可靠性运行状态的监测问题,给出了系统的完整性及完整度的定义,提出并研究基于多传感器信息融合技术的系统完整性监测与估计方法,建立了基于模糊推理方法的系统完整性信息融合监测模型,对于包括众多的,且要求高可靠性的井下分站的监控系统来说尤其重要。