群体决策选择函数的强稳定性

对于群体决策的选优问题，引进了它的选择函数和强稳定性概念，并给出了判别选择函数强稳定性的条件。讨论了选择函数强稳定性与群体决策规则的Gibbard-Satterthwait防操纵性以及非独裁性间的关系。给出了几种典型群体决策规则的选择函数强稳定性的充分必要条件。     

浅议再就业培训

随着下岗人数的不断增加，再就业培训愈发显出其重要性。只有采取多种培训方式，转变下岗人员的观念，提高其自身的技能，再就业才能真正实现。     

Using the bootstrap to evaluate forecasting equations

The bootstrap, like the jack-knife, is a technique for estimating standard errors. The idea is to use Monte Carlo simulation, based on a non-parametric estimate of the underlying error distribution. The bootstrap will be applied to an econometric equation describing the demand for energy by industry, to determine multi-period forecasting error and choose among competing specifications. The delta method for estimating forecast errors turns out to be too optimistic by a factor of 2.     

The Researches on Path Independence Problem

1.INTroDUCTIONInArrow'sGeneralPOssibilityTheorem,Arrowproposedtheconsistencyorrationalityconditionswhicllhadnotpreviouslyappearedinthesocialchoiceliteratureti].Butthiscausedagreatdealofcritics.Inanswertothesecritics,Arrowgaveajustificationforimposinghisconsistencyorrationalitycollditionsandarguedthattherationalityconditionswerenecessaryinorderforsocialchoicetobeindependentofthepathofchoice[1,21.Hedidnotexplainwhatistheindependenceofpathofchoiceandhowtogiveitsmathematicaldefinition.Perha…     

从柳永《雨霖铃》看宋代的送别风俗

通过对柳永的《雨霖铃》文本分析,可知宋代饯别、赠言、摇装等送别风俗的内容,反映出宋代送别时间、地点、方式比较固定统一的文化现象;透露出人们重情重义、喜聚不喜散、渴求平安、安土重迁的文化心态;刻画出古人对外出远行的审慎态度、对异地文化的失落感以及厌倦羁旅漂泊生活的苦闷情绪。这些送别文化习俗对当今送别文化产生了深远影响。     

可编程序控制器系统设计的研究

介绍PLC控制系统设计中,型号选择、I／O模块选择、编程器与外部设备的选择以及控制系统的结构与控制方式的选择;系统达到费用低、可靠性高、维护、保养简单,满足自动控制系统需要．     

Neural networks and the multinomial logit for brand choice modelling: a hybrid approach

The study of brand choice decisions with multiple alternatives has been successfully modelled for more than a decade using the Multinomial Logit model. Recently, neural network modelling has received increasing attention and has been applied to an array of marketing problems such as market response or segmentation. We show that a Feedforward Neural Network with Softmax output units and shared weights can be viewed as a generalization of the Multinomial Logit model. The main difference between the two approaches lies in the ability of neural networks to model non‐linear preferences with few (if any) a priori assumptions about the nature of the underlying utility function, while the Multinomial Logit can suffer from a specification bias. Being complementary, these approaches are combined into a single framework. The neural network is used as a diagnostic and specification tool for the Logit model, which will provide interpretable coefficients and significance statistics. The method is illustrated on an artificial dataset where the market is heterogeneous. We then apply the approach to panel scanner data of purchase records, using the Logit to analyse the non‐linearities detected by the neural network. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

居住地、出行方式与出发时间联合选择的

为刻画居住地、出行方式与出发时间的联合选择行为,选取房价、出行耗时、出行费用及个人属性等作为效用变量,以居住地选择子集合、出行方式选择子集合和出发时间选择子集合的组合作为模型的选择项,构建基于广义极值(GEV)理论的交叉巢式Logit模型,为方便对比,同时构建3种结构的传统巢式模型.利用2005年北京市第3次居民出行调查数据,对模型参数进行估计和检验,并进行弹性分析,分析效用变量的改变引起的备选方案选择概率的改变.参数估计结果表明,交叉巢式Logit模型具有比NL(Nested logit)模型更优的统计学特征,当效用变量改变时,选择者最先变更其出发时间,然后是出行方式,最后才考虑改变其居住地.直接和交叉弹性分析表明,对于小汽车方式的远距离通勤者,即使额外收取费用亦难以降低其出行比例;当通勤距离小于5km时,一种方式出行时间的变化对另一种方式选择概率的影响微乎其微,而当通勤距离在10～20km时,这种影响最显著.     

轴材料的合理选择

轴材料的合理选择是设计、生产和维修中的一个重要环节,选择材料时要考虑轴的使用性能,材料要有较好的工艺性能和经济性,以便提高轴的寿命和生产率,减少消耗,从而降低综合成本。     

论网络赌球活动的危害及其现存的法律问题

运用文献资料法等研究方法,对我国网络赌球活动的特点、发展及其危害进行了分析,研究认为：相关法律法规的不完善是我国治理赌球活动所凸显出来的一个重要问题,主要表现在电子证据的合法性与易销毁问题、管辖权的归属问题与调查取证问题、网络赌球犯罪的主观认定等多个方面,建议：尽早制定和出台防控赌球活动的法律法规,完善法律体系,同时,一方面在国际上要加强司法合作,另一方面在国内要强化多部门协同执法意识,齐抓共管,才能够有效的遏制网络赌球行为。