长距离干道混合车流路径分割与绿波协调同步优化

城市长距离交通干道中,小汽车和公交车的运行轨迹存在显著差异,合理的信号协调控制策略应统筹考虑两类车型的需求.针对包含大流量公交车的长距离干线绿波协调路口传统分组片面化的问题,分析了带有公交站台的长距离干道上小汽车和公交车时空轨迹特征,提出了差异化路口分组的信号协调方法.该方法将小汽车和公交车的协调路径分割点分别设置在路...     

一种分布式实时内存数据库的系统故障恢复模式

提出了一种适合分布式实时内存数据库的、基于日志的故障恢复模式.在该恢复模式中,日志记录被存储在非易失高速存储设备中,非易失日志存储区依据事务类型被分成四个不同的日志分区,不同类型事务的日志被存储在不同的日志分区;采用了执行频率动态可调的模糊检验点模式,在检验点执行过程中,一些无用的日志记录被删除;故障发生后,系统重启、恢复时,分区重装策略被采用;恢复算法结合相关恢复协议,确保了全局事务故障的原子性.实验显示,该故障恢复模式明显地改进了系统性能,提高了实时事务满足截止期的比率.     

Application of Disaggregated Logit Modeling with Stated Preference Method in Park and Ride Behavior for Non-local Private Car Travelers in Big Events

During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.     

Side Structure Sensitivity to Passenger Car Crashworthiness During Pole Side Impact

Side impact accidents of passenger cars with fixed poles may result in severe injuries to the vehi-cle occupants. In this paper, side structure intrusion was considered as the criterion for passenger cars crashworthiness during side impact with a pole. The relationship between side intrusions and the side struc-ture stiffness was analyzed. The acceleration of the unstruck side vehicle body was selected as the criterion for studying the influence of different side structure components on the side structure stiffness during pas-senger car pole side impacts. The behavior was analyzed using finite element simulations. The results show that the rocker and the lower part of the B-pillar are the key parts of the side structures in determining the passenger car side stiffness. Passenger car pole side impact crashworthiness is, therefore, most sensitive to these two components.     

乘用车风噪声模拟研究

对某乘用车风噪声进行了模拟研究.首先,采用大涡模拟模型（LES）计算了乘用车的瞬态外流场,然后,应用Lighthill-Curle声学模拟理论,以后视镜及A柱区域为噪声源,预测了车外场点的噪声特性,模拟值与测量值在高频范围内比较符合.根据流场和声学模拟结果,分析了后视镜的声学缺陷.通过取消原后视镜上的凹槽,增加后视镜与A柱之间的连接距离,减小后视镜迎风面积和构形等手段,对后视镜的声学敏感区域进行了修改.最后,对修改后的模型进行了噪声测量,试验结果显示,模型修改后风噪声有显著降低.     

Claims provisions in liability insurance

The settlement delay for very large claims in liability insurance may extend to quite a few years; a delay often years in automobile third-party liability is by no means an exception. The companies consequently have to set aside huge amounts as provisions for outstanding claims. As the total provision may attain 100 times the underwriting profit, an underestimation of this provision of a few per cent could mean short-term bankruptcy for the company. A precise forecast of those outstanding liabilities is therefore of crucial importance Owing to the special nature of the information set (a triangular array of cumulative payments, called the‘run-off triangle’), actuaries have in the past neglected the time series analysis approach and devised their own forecasting models. Those methods are reviewed, and illustrated by a real-life example. Two new autoregressive methods are proposed.     

基于贝叶斯网络的网约车交通事故致因机理分析

为了缓解网约车交通事故,以网约车驾驶员为研究对象,探究网约车交通事故致因机理.通过调查问卷收集了2 458名网约车驾驶员个体属性、工作强度、工作压力、不良驾驶行为和交通事故经历的相关信息.对数据进行分类处理后,通过贝叶斯网络建立网约车事故频率预测模型.基于十折交叉验证法,使用混淆矩阵与接收者操作特征曲线校验模型精度.结果表明,模型预测能力较好,模型分析了11种与事故频率直接相关的影响因素,识别了16类导致高频率事故发生概率增加的不利状态,且发现多种不利状态组合对事故频率产生的非线性扩增效应和叠加效应.研究结论有助于管理部门制定相应预防对策以减少网约车交通事故频率.     

燃料电池轿车模型预测实时优化控制

针对面向示范的燃料电池轿车,以提高能量经济性为目标,采用模型预测控制(MPC)对能量管理策略进行实时动态优化.仿真结果表明:所设计的MPC策略能够有效改善燃料电池轿车的能量经济性,并能满足实时控制的需要.     

基于自然驾驶数据的避撞预警对跟车行为影响

基于60 689 km车辆运行数据提取了1 613个跟车行为片段,并分析了前向避撞预警(FCW)系统对跟车行为2个重要参数——车头时距和反应时间的影响.结果表明,FCW系统对跟车车头时距影响不显著,但显著降低了跟车中的反应时间.白天状态下,反应时间减少了0.13 s;后车逼近前车时,反应时间减少了0.09 s.     

欺诈识别聚类算法在分析型车险CRM中的应用

对于车辆保险业务欺诈行为的识别,采用基于数据挖掘技术对于孤立点的分析,提出一种基于距离的欺诈风险分析方法。在此基础上,应用数据挖掘技术进行保险欺诈分析,对于异常索赔行为加以识别,从而在可能的欺诈行为发生时发出预警。