X100直缝埋弧焊管断裂韧性的裂纹尖端张开位移试验研究

为了检验X100直缝埋弧焊管的断裂韧性,采用三点弯曲多试样法,在室温、-10℃和-30℃下对该焊管的母材、热影响区和焊缝部位进行了裂纹尖端张开位移(CTOD)试验.测试结果表明:在同一温度下,CTOD试验的表观启裂值δ0.05、条件启裂值δi和最大载荷值δm的分布规律为母材最好,焊缝次之,热影响区最差;采用裂纹扩展阻力和撕裂模量表征的分布规律为母材最好,热影响区次之,焊缝最差;焊接热影响区组织中含有大量呈块状分布的铁素体,而粒状贝氏体等增强相的含量较少,这会造成其韧性下降,使焊管出现局部失稳现象.     

曹妃甸海域磷酸盐容量控制

首先,建立曹妃甸海域潮流和污染物输运数学模型,并用实测资料对模型进行验证;然后,应用验证好的数学模型,计算六种典型水文条件(洪季大、中、小潮,枯季大、中、小潮)下该海域8个河流排污口和曹妃甸围填区混合区半径上的磷酸盐浓度,并与功能区要求的水质标准进行比较分析;最后,计算出磷酸盐的允许排放量和削减率.结果表明:磷酸盐超标的枯季为陡河和沙河,洪季为双龙河和围填区,应加强对这些河流相应季节磷酸盐排放量的控制.     

基于托达罗模型的辽宁沿海经济带农村人力资源转移模式

运用托达罗基本分析模型分别从宏观和微观两个层面研究辽宁沿海经济带农村人力资源转移问题,分析农村人力资源状况、城乡收入差距、总体就业形势等因素以及教育水平、文化差异、心里舒适度等个人心理成本因素的影响.在托达罗分析模型的基础上,结合辽宁沿海经济带整体开发背景,提出坚持政府推动和市场主导相结合、增强城市吸纳能力和扩大在农业(农村)内部就业相结合的人力资源转移方向,构建辽宁沿海经济带农村人力资源转移的基本模式.     

坡度对入渗河岸带表土层氮素截留效果的影响

利用自制的土槽装置,室内模拟入渗氮素在不同坡度河岸带表土层中的运移过程.通过观测取样点在不同坡度条件下渗流水体出流时间以及水体中TN,NH4+-N浓度,探讨不同坡度河岸带土壤水分运移特性以及坡度对入渗河岸带表土层氮素截留效果的影响.试验结果表明:河岸带坡度越小,入渗水流在表土层中的停留时间越长,河岸带表土层对氮素的截留效果越好,但土层深度不同,截留效果差别较大;坡度越大,河岸带表土层对氮素的截留效果越差,但土层深度不同,净化效果差别不大;坡度大小与NH4+-N,TN截留率之间存在极其显著的指数相关关系.     

日本东北大地震——大自然给人类上的又一课

作者介绍了2011年3月11日日本东北地区太平洋沿岸近海的M9.0特大地震的震后研究情况,日本列岛M8.0以上大地震发生的地球动力学背景、地理环境,大地震在东北太平洋沿岸地区、关东地区、东海道地区的活动历史以及对下一次东海地震发生时间的最新研究进展。最后总结了地震中长期预测的现状及相关基础研究应努力的方向,提出了在工程应用研究中应该避免的错误工作思路。     

Neural network structure identification in inflation forecasting

Neural networks (NNs) are appropriate to use in time series analysis under conditions of unfulfilled assumptions, i.e., non‐normality and nonlinearity. The aim of this paper is to propose means of addressing identified shortcomings with the objective of identifying the NN structure for inflation forecasting. The research is based on a theoretical model that includes the characteristics of demand‐pull and cost‐push inflation; i.e., it uses the labor market, financial and external factors, and lagged inflation variables. It is conducted at the aggregate level of euro area countries from January 1999 to January 2017. Based on the estimated 90 feedforward NNs (FNNs) and 450 Jordan NNs (JNNs), which differ in variable parameters (number of iterations, learning rate, initial weight value intervals, number of hidden neurons, and weight value of the context unit), the mean square error (MSE), and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are calculated for two periods: in‐the‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Ranking NNs simultaneously on both periods according to either MSE or AIC does not lead to the selection of the ‘best’ NN because the optimal NN in‐the‐sample, based on MSE and/or AIC criteria, often has high out‐of‐sample values of both indicators. To achieve the best compromise solution, i.e., to select an optimal NN, the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used. Comparing the optimal FNN and JNN, i.e., FNN(4,5,1) and JNN(4,3,1), it is concluded that under approximately equal conditions, fewer hidden layer neurons are required in JNN than in FNN, confirming that JNN is parsimonious compared to FNN. Moreover, JNN has a better forecasting performance than FNN.     

热镀5%铝-锌钢板在青岛不同海水区带的腐蚀行为

开展了热镀5%铝-锌钢板在青岛不同海水区带的实海腐蚀测试,并利用电化学测试、失重腐蚀测试和扫描电镜首次研究了镀层的海水腐蚀行为.结果表明,由于腐蚀电流密度小,腐蚀产物具有保护性,镀层在全浸区表现出较好的耐蚀性能;镀层在潮差区出现不同程度的生物污损,而比较充分的充气条件又促进了镀层的氧化,其腐蚀速度比全浸区明显降低;镀层在飞溅区未出现生物污损,耐蚀性能最好,可能与良好的充气条件和腐蚀产物层的阻挡作用有关.镀层在飞溅区和潮差区的耐蚀性比全浸区分别提高197%和183%;但在全浸区和潮差区,镀层有局部腐蚀倾向.     

The landing zone – Ground for model transfer in chemistry

This essay proposes a new notion - the landing zone - in order to identify conceptual features that allow modelers to transfer mathematical tools across disciplinary borders. This discussion refers to the transferable models as ‘templates’. Templates are functions, equations, or computational methods that are capable of being generalized from a particular subject matter. There are formal and conceptual prerequisites for the transfer of a template to a new domain. A landing zone is an ontology that contributes to the satisfaction of these conditions for successful transfer. This paper presents a case study on a model in chemistry - the Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM) - that makes use of transferred templates from physics - the virial theorem and the wave function. The landing zone in this case is a new ontological notion, that of the topological atom, which prepares ground for the use of the virial theorem and the wave function in chemistry. The virial theorem requires that there exists in-principle stability to the system that it represents, and the wave function requires transformation in its representation that is justified. The ontology of QTAIM - the landing zone for these templates - grounds the scientific use of these templates in the context of chemistry.     

基于背景插值的空空导弹攻击区在线模拟方法

针对空战态势迅速变化对空空导弹攻击区模拟实时性的需求,提出基于背景插值的攻击区在线模拟方法。首先预测下一采样时刻态势,并针对预测态势模拟解算攻击区信息;当下一采样时刻到来时,利用攻击区预测值和先前两次攻击区模拟信息及相应的态势记录插值估计攻击区真实值。背景插值方法将攻击区模拟解算放到先前计算周期中,实时性高。理论分析证明了背景插值误差随着采样时间的减小收敛于零。仿真结果表明,背景插值模拟方法的误差与传统攻击区模拟方法相当,而前者平均可在7.16×10^-6s内给出结果,后者平均计算耗时为0.290 s。     

冰箱回热毛细管计算模型

在分析现有的冰箱毛细管主要计算模型的基础上,针对冰箱毛细管实际应用情况,建立了冰箱回热毛细管六段流阻模型.该模型充分考虑了回气管与毛细管回热长度以及毛细管进出口截面突变的影响,并对冰箱回热毛细管在三种不同工况下的性能进行了模拟,研究了冷凝温度、蒸发温度、以及毛细管相对位置对毛细管工作性能的影响,结果显示冷凝温度对回热毛细管内的制冷剂流动特性影响最大.