Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

通信公司社区综合业务管理系统的设计与实现

主要是利用VPN技术进行计算机网络组建.独立开发针对通信企业业务管理软件,来解决通信公司的社区业务管理.即用户装、移电话,112电话障碍、数据业务等,以解决《电信服务网》与《10060客户业务受理系统》相互独立所造成的业务脱节,提升企业管理水平.     

业务过程重组若干问题之探讨

业务过程重组是创造性地应用信息技术,以业务过程为导向,调整企业的各种业务流、组织结构,进行企业组织管理的全面创新．本文就业务过程重组的内涵、认识误区、与信息技术的关系和实施中的问题与发展前景进行探讨     

基于双值设计结构矩阵的流程优化方法

DSM为系统设计提供了简单、精炼、可视化的表示的方法.业务流程的评价和优化与系统设计有相似之处.但由于业务流程涉及的参数更加复杂，因此原有的DSM不能直接应用于业务流程的优化.本文针对业务流程的特点，在设计结构矩阵（DSM）的基础上提出了基于双值设计结构矩阵（double value design structure matrix，DVDSM）算法，将DSM中的单值元素拓展为双值元素，扩展了元素所代表的信息量.文中以距离、路径值为例，设计了其详细的算法和规则及实现过程，并将算法应用于仓储物流管理系统的优化设计问题中.通过一系列仿真实验表明了算法的有效性.     

锦州市区经营性健身俱乐部发展现状及对策研究

采用问卷调查法、数理统计法、文献资料法,对锦州市区经营性健身俱乐部进行实证研究,分析其发展状况,从而根据实际情况提出参考性对策与建议.     

浅谈商法中不实商事登记的效力

探讨了不实商事登记的类别及效力，并针对不同的不实商事登记提出相应的救济建议。     

上市公司家族控制对代理成本影响的实证分析

以沪深300家家族控股上市公司为研究样本,建立家族控制对代理成本影响的分析模型,实证分析结果表明:家族持股比例与代理成本呈显著的负相关关系;家族成员担任董事长或总经理有利于降低代理成本;家族董事对代理成本的影响不明显。     

Business failure prediction using decision trees

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models is emphasised by the extremely costly failure of high‐profile companies in the recent past. Consequently, a significant interest has been generated in business failure prediction within academia as well as in the finance industry. Statistical business failure prediction models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business. Discriminant and logit analyses have traditionally been the most popular approaches, but there are also a range of promising non‐parametric techniques that can alternatively be applied. In this paper, the relatively new technique of decision trees is applied to business failure prediction. The numerical results suggest that decision trees could be superior predictors of business failure as compared to discriminant analysis. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅析企业人力资源管理机制的创新

随着市场经济的发展,企业间的竞争越来越激烈,高素质的人力资源成为企业生存发展的根本保证。有效的人力资源管理机制将为企业获得更多的人才,以提高企业的核心竞争力。笔者针对目前企业人力资源管理机制中存在的一些问题,探寻出几点新的对策。     

铁路营业线施工安全惯性问题及对策

铁路营业线施工的特点是时间紧、涉及部门多、对运输生产干扰大。文章通过对施工前预备工作超量、损坏运营设备、营业线附近作业侵限、作业方式不当,造成红光带、封锁施工不能按计划完成、应急预案研究不细等惯性问题进行分析,找出了产生这些问题的原因,提出了针对性的对策。