基于粒计算的商业数据流概念漂移特征选择

商业数据流具有动态性、漂移性等特性,概念漂移特征选择是数据流挖掘的重要工作之一.本文从数据流的特点和概念漂移特性出发,提出了数据流的概念形式化分析流程和基于粒计算构建数据流的概念形式化描述模型;商业数据流的概念漂移实际上取决于其概念外延的变化,文中使用包括外延偶合度和内涵偶合度在内的概念偶合度来描述概念间的相似性;经过粒化的数据流由概念格来表示,进而通过概念格对的松弛偶合度来分析数据流特征;结合概念偶合分析和数据流变化特征,阐述了一种基于数据流概念格对的松弛匹配偶合度算法,并据此分析概念格对来选择数据流的漂移特征.通过实例验证、评价了特征选择,证明其有效性.     

政府引领全民创业对策研究

通过文献资料、总结归纳等研究方法,提出了地方政府在全民创业问题上的组织引领、政策引领、服务引领、观念引领、技能引领、环境引领六项对策。     

公务卡实际应用问题对策研究

公务卡报销制度是现代信息化的标志,是电子政务化的必然结果,近几年应用过程中出现的诸多问题影响公务卡的发展。因此,针对目前公务卡应用中存在的问题进行了详细剖析,并从扩大宣传、改善用卡环境,完善公务卡银行服务体系,推动公务卡制度发展等方面提出了一些应对措施。     

企业网格与网格使能的业务转型研究

企业网格具有巨大的潜在商业价值,它受到了企业界和学术界的重视,但仍存在一系列技术和应用的问题。从企业网格应用的视角出发,界定了企业网格及相关的几个概念,介绍了企业网格的应用现状和存在的问题,最后提出一个网格使能的业务转型框架模型,该模型说明了企业网格对企业业务的影响。研究成果对学术界和企业CIO都有所帮助。     

我国大型电子商务网站应建立配套物流

随着电子商务行业在中国的不断发展,众多的电子商务企业(网站)在国内的影响力日益增大,对我国经济生活的各个领域产生了深远影响。目前我国大型电子商务网站中,已经比较好地解决了信息流和资金流的问题,但还没有建立配套的物流,已经成为我国大型电子商务网站发展的瓶颈问题。就我国大型电子商务企业(网站)建立配套物流的必要性和可行性进行了分析,并对大型电子商务网站物流建立中的相关问题作了探讨。     

浅谈高校图书馆编目业务外包的实施

随着网络信息技术的快速发展,高校图书馆编目作业方式发生了根本改变。从编目外包的概念及发展状况出发,分析了高校图书馆实施编目外包的动因、优势及风险,提出了成功实施高校图书馆编目外包的策略。     

面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统研究

依据博弈论的思路并借助于人工神经网络的机理设计并实现了一个面向过程再造的企业战略模拟系统,该系统既为企业的战略制定与实施初步提供了一种无代价的实验手段,又验证了有关企业过程再造的主要理论假设,弥补了其实证研究的不足.并在一家企业得到了应用.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业模式创新分析——基于外部利益相关者视角

商业模式构成企业逻辑框架,同时也动态影响企业的整个运营流程,外部利益相关者作为情境变量,对商业模式价值的形成与创新有重要的影响作用。本研究将企业看作整体,通过分析政府机构、公众&社区、竞争性企业、互补性企业、供应商、消费者对企业的价值导向作用,并结合企业特征构建新的分析框架,从不同维度视角探索各类型企业在商业模式创新与外部利益相关者之间的作用关键点,为相关研究提供新的基础性研究框架。     

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.