Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

Shift-contagion in energy markets and global crisis

This paper presents an analysis of shift-contagion in energy markets, testing whether linkages between returns in energy markets increase during crisis periods. The research presented herein demonstrates how common movement between energy markets increases due to (i) shift-contagion across energy markets, reflected by structural transmission of shocks across markets and (ii) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-market interdependences. A regime-switching model was developed to detect shift-contagion across energy markets. In the approach adopted herein, the occurrence of shift-contagion is endogenously estimated rather than being exogenously assigned. The results show that shift-contagion has been a major feature of energy markets over the last decade. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the linkages between energy markets do not appear to be stable. These results are remarkably accurate for forecasting Brent and natural gas for horizons for up to 50 days. Conversely, for WTI (West Texas Intermediate oil) and coal, the model performs well only for forecasting very short horizons (up to 20 days). For all products, the model shows significant biases for long horizons.     

Design and validation of wireless acceleration sensor network for structural health monitoring

0IntroductionCivil engineeringstructures suffer damages caused byenvironmental loads,fatigue,caustic effect and materialaging;thus,their strength reduces inevitably during theservice time.In order to assess these damages and makeappropriate decisions to keep the structures in good ser-vice,itis essential toimplement a damage detectionstrat-egy,and the process is referred to as structural healthmonitoring(SHM)[1].In an SHMsystem,a set of sen-sors are mountedinstructuresto measurethe structure…     

马尾松种子园优良家系选择研究

对广西南宁地区林科所种子园,藤县大芒界种子园和贵港市覃塘种子园的440个马尾松(P inusm asson ianaL am b.)自由授粉子代进行年度和地点重复的半胞子代测定试验,以本地马尾松等11个对照来分析马尾松自由授粉子代的遗传变异规律,并根据遗传稳定性和材积生长快慢,采用性状表现水平分析法从中选择出优良家系。结果表明,440个参试家系中有20.0%~98.0%的家系树高比对照大8.3%~67.7%,有5.5%~99.0%的家系胸径比对照大11.4%~106.9%、有9.1%~99.0%的家系材积比对照大29.2%~484.6%。评选出适合在广西普遍推广的广普性优良家系64个,局部推广的局部性优良家系48个,需淘汰的家系83个;选择出的优良家系在11年生子代林中,材积生长量比对照大64.71%~94.51%。用子代林数据估算马尾松各性状的家系遗传力,树高遗传力为0.306~0.724,胸径为0.174~0.686,单株材积为0.286~0.677。     

接触爆炸作用下板的塑性变形分析与实验

为了研究接触爆炸作用下板的塑性变形的塑性区范围和最大塑性变形量的计算,利用能量理论处理爆炸荷载作用下的板最大变形量的计算问题,利用固体介质应力波理论分析板塑性变形范围的计算问题.推导出接触爆炸作用下线性硬化材料板的最大变形量计算式和塑性变形范围的计算式.实验验证了接触爆炸作用下板的塑性变形范围和最大塑性变形量的计算公式的可靠性.实验结果和计算分析结果比较吻合.     

产学研协同发展、知识积累与技术创新效率——基于动态面板门限机理实证分析

基于产学研耦合协调度测度模型、数据包络分析模型以及动态面板门限回归模型,运用2013～2017年中国30个省市的面板数据,研究以知识积累为门限变量时,产学研协同发展水平对区域技术创新效率产生的影响.实证结果表明:当以知识积累水平为门限变量时,产学研协同发展水平与技术创新效率间存在明显的双门限效应;随着知识积累水平的提升...     

塞曼效应实验的一个应用

由塞曼效应实验结果去确定原子的总角动量量子数J值和朗德因子g值,近而去确定原子总轨道角动量量子数L和总自旋量子数S的数值.此方法的运用,对知识巩固和加深的同时,训练学生由实验结果得到理论结论,实现物理学理论指导实践、实践反作用理论的宗旨.这无疑对增强学生的创新能力有巨大的帮助.     

去痴灵胶囊中挥发油的提取工艺

用水蒸气蒸馏法分别对广东海风藤、石菖蒲、五味子3味中药单独进行挥发油成分提取,然后将3味药以复方比例混合提取,比较它们在提取量、提取速度、提取成分方面的差异.并用正交设计法考察加水量、提取时间、药材粉碎度等因素对挥发油提取量的影响,优化了工艺参数.结果表明,广东海风藤、石菖蒲、五味子单独提取与以复方比例混合提取在提取量、提取速度、提取成分方面基本一致.正交试验中以提取量作为指标,提取时间和粉碎度的影响具显著性意义,加水量的影响无显著性意义.最终确定采用以复方比例混合形式提取挥发油的提取路线,最优工艺条件为A2B3C3,即加药材质量8倍量的水、提取7 h、使用药材细粉进行提取.     

哈特曼装置上粉尘浓度的测量

粉尘浓度和湍流速度对粉尘爆炸猛烈程度和粉尘云最小着火能的测试有很大影响.针对1.2 L哈特曼装置上的粉尘浓度进行了测量研究,并对测量数据进行了分析讨论,得到了1.2 L哈特曼管上不同位置高度的粉尘浓度随时间的变化曲线.粉尘浓度随哈特曼管高度位置分布很不均匀.对于哈特曼管电极位置高度,当点火延迟时间170 ms、计算浓度为500 g/m3时,其粉尘测量浓度近似等于计算浓度;当计算浓度低于500 g/m3时,其测量浓度高于计算浓度.当计算浓度大于500 g/m3时,测量浓度低于计算浓度.哈特曼管上粉尘浓度随高度分布的获得,为最小着火能在不同装置上的测试比较提供了数据,为粉尘爆炸数学模型的检验提供了...     

基于董事会治理因素的财务危机预警模型的构建

企业在经营过程中存在着越来越多的财务风险,为了防止这些风险演变为财务危机,及时进行财务危机预警分析,就需要理顺公司的治理结构,引入董事会治理因素来完善财务危机预警机制.以120家上市公司为研究对象,分别运用非参数检验、T检验以及主成分分析对财务变量和董事会治理变量进行筛选,进而运用Logistic回归分析构建预警模型.结果显示,未引入董事会治理变量的模型的预测正确率为92.5%,而引入董事会治理变量的模型预测正确率为94.15%,预警能力明显增强,也说明,董事会治理因素是影响公司财务危机的一个重要方面.