基于构件行为的场景建模框架

采用系统理论术语形式定义构件行为框架,运用轨线集刻画构件行为,通过轨线迁移给出构件行为表示框架,其建模思想不再以输入／输出结构模式为出发点,而是以研究系统构件的布局为基本观点,利用构件之间的互联控制关系,反映出软件系统呈现一种柔性、多目标、连续反应式的动态特征,为构件式系统的场景建模提供了一种新的解决途径．     

Scenario simulation and forecast of land use/cover in northern China

Modeling land use/cover scenario changes and its potential impacts on structure and functions of ecosystem in typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and ecosystem. Based on the analysis of the existing land use/cover simulation and forecast models, a land use/cover scenario dynamics model by the integration of System Dynamics （SD） model, Back Propagation Neural Network （BPNN） and Cellular Automata （CA） model is developed with land use/cover scenario changes in northern China in the next 30 years and simulated in this paper. The model is to simulate the land use/cover scenario demands by using a SD model at first, and then allocating the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use/cover suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using BPNN-CA model to satisfy the balance between land use/cover scenario demands and supplies. It integrates the advantages of SD, BPNN and CA. Macro-driving factors and the micro-spatial pattern are also fully taken into account. The BPNN simplifies the identification of the factors＇ weights used in CA model and improves the reliability of the simulation results. The simulation accuracy of the model developed in this paper was found to be about 74%. It suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complexity of land use/cover system at different scales to some extent and it is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecosystem. The simulated results also indicate that the urban land, water area and forest will increase significantly, and farmland and unable land will decrease gradually. Obvious land use/cover changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone and the southeast area of northern China.     

Blowup rate of positive solution of a semilinear parabolic system

It is dealt with positive solutions to the systems: u-t-u- XX =v+p, v-t-v XX =u+q in Ω×(0, T) subject to either initial conditions or boundary_value conditions. The exact blowup rate estimates of solution are established under some monotonicity assumptions on the initial values.     

深圳市主要道路交通碳排放特征与低碳交通发展情景研究

应用国际机动车排放模型(IVE)和实地观测数据, 计算深圳市3种类型机动车的碳排放因子和主要道路的碳排放强度, 得到深圳市主要道路交通碳排放的时空特征, 并应用情景分析法, 定量化地比对各种低碳交通发展模式。结果表明: 1) 深圳市交通碳排放空间分布极不均衡, 市中心区主要干道的碳排放强度显著高于中心区外围路段, 连接城市组团干道的碳排放强度显著高于组团内道路; 2) 深圳市交通碳排放日变化趋势主要有4种类型(单峰型、双峰型、波动型和均衡型), 工作日早晚高峰碳排放量最高; 3) 对比高、中、低3种程度低碳交通模式, 发现中度严格的减碳模式符合深圳社会经济和交通发展的要求。     

化工过程安全评价中危险剧情的表达与识别

在现有各类安全评价方法的基础上,从信息展示及知识表示两方面着重对危险剧情的表达进行了阐述,提出一种图形化的基于知识本体的危险剧情表达方法,并在开发的软件平台实现了危险剧情的计算机自动识别与分析。工业实例应用结果表明,这种方法不但提高了分析的质量与效率,而且由于其标准化的信息表达方法,使得安全信息传递、审核与共享更加容易。     

一类非线性双曲方程解的空间爆破和衰减估计

主要应用能量方法研究一类非线性双曲方程的解的空间性质。结果表明:光滑解要么不存在,要么整体存在,当其存在时,解一定沿着柱形区域的长端z趋向无穷远时而趋于0。     

二维quasi-geostrophic方程的几何结构和非爆炸性

讨论了二维quasi-geostrophic方程中的主动标量θ的封闭水平集C的动态演变.当水平集具有某种指定几何性质,那么在水平集上▽⊥θ的大小与Ω(t)可比的假设下,证明了有限时间T内解爆炸的不存在性.最后给出了一个2D QG方程的Lax对表示.     

广州市至2020年城市客运交通发展情景分析

社会经济的发展带动了交通需求的迅速增长,由此导致了城市机动车保有量的迅速增加,同时也加重了能源安全和环境污染问题。应用IPAC-AIM/Local模型,采用情景分析方法,在确保广州市客运交通需求正常增长的前提下,研究了以个体交通为主导和以公共交通为主导的两种发展模式,对未来能源需求和大气污染物排放的影响。研究结果表明,通过调整交通出行模式,大力发展公共交通能够显著减少能源需求,是保障能源安全和降低大气污染物排放量的有力举措。     

Simulation-based automatic generation of risk scenarios

A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model "express itself" through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which:(i) manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;(ii) employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example(a holdup tank) is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

基于多场景和区间模糊数的输电网规划综合决策

为解决电网规划决策中不确定性及模糊性问题, 将情景分析法与区间隶属度相结合, 提出一种新的输电网规划决策方法. 根据电网规划特点, 选取影响规划场景发生的5个关键事件, 依次求取其初始概率、模拟概率, 并由此推算出情景概率. 针对情景分析法在应用中难以准确量化及场景过多问题, 定义综合考虑情景概率及影响程度的评价因子指标实现对典型场景的筛选. 决策过程中, 采用基于梯形隶属函数的区间数模糊决策方法求取方案隶属度, 克服了规划指标难以精确计算问题. 并根据最大隶属度进行方案排序, 最终求得各方案优劣比较结果. 最后通过算例验证了该方法的有效性.