基于破产理论的省属高校招生计划分配方法

针对属地高校招生计划分配的主观性和复杂性等问题,研究高校诚信申报计划前提下的破产模型及分配规则,进而重点研究高校出于利益需求,可能出现虚假申报其可承载的最大招生规模的现象,结合诚信申报招生计划模型得到的非整数分配解,建立虚报招生计划前提下的二次规划修正模型.实例分析说明,提出的分配方法能在不同前提下高效地实现招生计划分配,分配结果有效地避免主观因素干扰,符合实际分配规律.研究结果可为省级教育行政部门招生计划编制工作提供参考依据.     

不确定环境下企业资本结构的优化模型

研究了在初始企业价值固定的情况下，当企业破产成本和企业债务及免税价值存在时的企业总价值模型，该模型给出了债务免税价值与财务危机成本的数学表达式．通过模型的优化，求得了企业价值最大化条件下固定的债务与权益的比例关系，并获得了优化企业资本结构的途径与方法。     

香港地区破产法述评及其借鉴意义

香港地区破产法不仅设计了一套严密完整的体现保护债权人利益的制度,如债权人自治制度、破产管理人制度等,而且设计了一套体现现代破产立法趋势的保护债务人利益的制度,如破产免责与复权制度、自由财产制度等.上述破产制度正是大陆破产法不完善甚至尚且阙如的地方.因此,系统研究、借鉴香港地区破产法律制度,对于正在修订中的大陆破产法有着重要的理论和实践意义.     

有限时间水平保险债务分析

利用公司金融期权博弈理论,讨论了有限到期日保险债券的价值,分析了公司最优资本结构;在破产首次到达时的概率分布已知时,获得了股东内生破产阈值和担保人最优保险费率的解析表达式,为保险债券的设计提供了理论依据．     

随机利率下带干扰的双复合Poisson-Geometric过程双险种风险模型的破产概率研究

随着保险公司业务不断扩张和实际情况的日益复杂化,经典风险模型已经不能准确描述保险营运的实际过程;本文在已有模型的基础上将随机利率和干扰因素融入模型中,将模型推广为保费过程和索赔过程均为复合Poisson-Geometric风险模型,利用期望方法和切比雪夫不等式得到该风险模型的调节系数、破产概率表达式和Lundberg上界。     

评龙夏·多吉次杰的“吉却贡吞”组织及其遭破产的原因

二十世纪三十年代,龙夏·多吉次杰在拉萨秘密组织了旨在改革旧地方政权的“吉却贡吞”（意为“求幸福者同盟”）组织,成为西藏地方近代史上重要的历史事件。文章对“吉却贡吞”组织的形成背景、破产经过及历史原因做了分析和评述。     

我国市场退出法律制度初探

国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划纲要明确提出要完善市场退出机制。从分析市场退出法律制度的理论入手,结合我国现有的立法状况,全面总结了市场退出法的规制方式、程序和我国市场退出法需要克服的困难和改进措施,以期对我国市场退出法律制度的立法完善有所裨益。     

Predicting multistage financial distress: Reflections on sampling,feature and model selection criteria

This research proposes a prediction model of multistage financial distress (MSFD) after considering contextual and methodological issues regarding sampling, feature and model selection criteria. Financial distress is defined as a three‐stage process showing different nature and intensity of financial problems. It is argued that applied definition of distress is independent of legal framework and its predictability would provide more practical solutions. The final sample is selected after industry adjustments and oversampling the data. A wrapper subset data mining approach is applied to extract the most relevant features from financial statement and stock market indicators. An ensemble approach using a combination of DTNB (decision table and naïve base hybrid model), LMT (logistic model tree) and A2DE (alternative N dependence estimator) Bayesian models is used to develop the final prediction model. The performance of all the models is evaluated using a 10‐fold cross‐validation method. Results showed that the proposed model predicted MSFD with 84.06% accuracy. This accuracy increased to 89.57% when a 33.33% cut‐off value was considered. Hence the proposed model is accurate and reliable to identify the true nature and intensity of financial problems regardless of the contextual legal framework.     

企业破产案件中银行抵押权效力的认定及风险防范

文章对企业破产案件中银行抵押权效力的认定进行了探讨，提出了抵押风险防范的措施。     

Bankruptcy prediction using a discrete‐time duration model incorporating temporal and macroeconomic dependencies

The purpose of this paper is to build an alternative method of bankruptcy prediction that accounts for some deficiencies in previous approaches that resulted in poor out‐of‐sample performances. Most of the traditional approaches suffer from restrictive presumptions and structural limitations and fail to reflect the panel properties of financial statements and/or the common macroeconomic influence. Extending the work of Shumway (2001), we present a duration model with time‐varying covariates and a baseline hazard function incorporating macroeconomic dependencies. Using the proposed model, we investigate how the hazard rates of listed companies in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) are affected by changes in the macroeconomic environment and by time‐varying covariate vectors that show unique financial characteristics of each company. We also investigate out‐of‐sample forecasting performances of the suggested model and demonstrate improvements produced by allowing temporal and macroeconomic dependencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.