Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

商业模式创新分析——基于外部利益相关者视角

商业模式构成企业逻辑框架,同时也动态影响企业的整个运营流程,外部利益相关者作为情境变量,对商业模式价值的形成与创新有重要的影响作用。本研究将企业看作整体,通过分析政府机构、公众&社区、竞争性企业、互补性企业、供应商、消费者对企业的价值导向作用,并结合企业特征构建新的分析框架,从不同维度视角探索各类型企业在商业模式创新与外部利益相关者之间的作用关键点,为相关研究提供新的基础性研究框架。     

Land potential appraisal for urban land reserve based on GIS：

With the rapid urbanization, land banking has become an important means for rational land use and land configuration optimizing. Rational urban land reserve and supply plan are keys for an urban land banking. GIS has been used to model urban growth, growth at the ruralurban fringe specifically. This paper identifies that the urban land banking potential can be evaluated based on RS and GIS technology. 10 indicators were chosen in the integrated index system. As a case of Metropolitan area in Chongqing, urban land banking potential was evaluated based on RS and GIS technology. With GIS, two steps can help to finish potential analysis of land banking. One is goal driven process, such as the process of planning and definition; the other step is datadriven process, such as the process of Manipulating. The results are used to establish the current land banking plan.      

Enhancing survey‐based investment forecasts

We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.     

Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

通信公司社区综合业务管理系统的设计与实现

主要是利用VPN技术进行计算机网络组建.独立开发针对通信企业业务管理软件,来解决通信公司的社区业务管理.即用户装、移电话,112电话障碍、数据业务等,以解决《电信服务网》与《10060客户业务受理系统》相互独立所造成的业务脱节,提升企业管理水平.     

业务过程重组若干问题之探讨

业务过程重组是创造性地应用信息技术,以业务过程为导向,调整企业的各种业务流、组织结构,进行企业组织管理的全面创新．本文就业务过程重组的内涵、认识误区、与信息技术的关系和实施中的问题与发展前景进行探讨     

基于双值设计结构矩阵的流程优化方法

DSM为系统设计提供了简单、精炼、可视化的表示的方法.业务流程的评价和优化与系统设计有相似之处.但由于业务流程涉及的参数更加复杂，因此原有的DSM不能直接应用于业务流程的优化.本文针对业务流程的特点，在设计结构矩阵（DSM）的基础上提出了基于双值设计结构矩阵（double value design structure matrix，DVDSM）算法，将DSM中的单值元素拓展为双值元素，扩展了元素所代表的信息量.文中以距离、路径值为例，设计了其详细的算法和规则及实现过程，并将算法应用于仓储物流管理系统的优化设计问题中.通过一系列仿真实验表明了算法的有效性.     

锦州市区经营性健身俱乐部发展现状及对策研究

采用问卷调查法、数理统计法、文献资料法,对锦州市区经营性健身俱乐部进行实证研究,分析其发展状况,从而根据实际情况提出参考性对策与建议.     

浅谈商法中不实商事登记的效力

探讨了不实商事登记的类别及效力，并针对不同的不实商事登记提出相应的救济建议。