21世纪高校图书馆的安全管理

从吉林市图书馆失火损失惨重谈起,阐述了高校图书馆安全管理的主要内容和具体措施。     

论大学图书馆读者权益及其保护

论述了大学图书馆读者权益的概念及内容,分析了读者权益保护的依据,提出大学图书馆读者权益保护的策略。     

基于预聚类主动半监督的作战体系效能评估

针对作战仿真实验中体系效能通常依靠专家评估、评估代价较大的问题,提出一种基于预聚类主动半监督学习的作战体系效能评估方法。明确了使用该方法进行作战体系效能评估的基本流程,以及自顶向下的评估模式和二值化的评估标准。重点构建了预聚类主动半监督学习算法,首先,结合作战仿真实验数据的特点,对未评估样本进行预聚类,选择最有价值的样本供专家标注;然后,使用已标注的样本训练主动学习算法和半监督学习算法的公用学习器;最后,利用主动学习算法挑选价值较高的样本交由专家评估,并利用新样本对学习器进行不断更新。作战仿真实验数据表明,该方法在达到预期评估准确度的同时降低了评估代价,能有效应用于大规模作战仿真实验的体系效能评估。     

水泥混凝土路面板底脱空的原因及防治措施

根据水泥混凝土路面破坏情况的调查,分析了混凝土路面产生板底脱空现象的原因及其防治措施,对预防早期破坏,延长水泥混凝土路面的使用寿命具有指导意义.     

汽车起步颤振动力学问题研究综述

归纳总结了汽车起步颤振动力学问题的研究现状和发展趋势.首先,以整车动力传动系统模型作为问题现象再现的仿真平台,着重论述与起步工况密切相关的部件,包括离合器操纵特性、摩擦特性和发动机瞬态扭矩等.然后,针对汽车起步颤振问题,从试验研究、产生机理、抑制措施3个方面讨论了起步颤振动力学问题研究内容和方法.最后,在已有研究成果及...     

稀浆封层路面层间黏结性能试验研究

为了对稀浆封层层间黏结性能进行评价,自行设计了以改进的剪切仪为基础的试验方法,能较好地模拟路面真实受力情况.试验结果说明,随着温度的升高,稀浆封层与沥青碎石下面层之间黏结强度在减小;不同的路面层间处理措施对黏结强度均有明显的影响;采用较大公称粒径的沥青混合料,或者对路面做凿毛处理均可以有效提高层间黏结强度.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations

This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

员工隐私泄漏途径、危害及保护对策

针对员工在应聘、聘用以及解聘后都有可能面临各种隐私泄漏问题,总结目前员工隐私泄露的各种途径,以及隐私泄露对员工和企业所带来的危害,并参考国内外该领域知名学者之前的研究,从四个角度提出员工隐私保护对策.     

溶剂型双组分重防腐涂料的制备及性能研究

采用可控阳离子聚合工艺制备含氟聚醚（fluoropolyether,FPO）,并以此FPO为软段、二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯（diphenyl methane diisocyannate,MDI）为硬段、三乙醇胺（triethanolamine,TEA）为扩链剂合成软硬段质量比为1：3的热固性含氟聚氨酯（thermosetting fluorined polyurethane,S-FPU）。进而将γ-氨丙基三乙氧基硅烷（γ-aminopropyl triethoxysilane,KH550）和MDI改性的凹凸棒土（palygorskite-KH550,AT-KH550和palygorskite-MDI,AT-MDI）引入S-FPU中获得两种新型的S-FPU/AT-KH550和S-FPU/AT-MDI。根据涂料配方的标准,选择合适的片层状填料、溶剂体系,分别制备了以S-FPU,S-FPU/AT-KH550和S-FPU/AT-MDI为基体树脂的溶剂型双组分重防腐涂料。对涂膜的耐腐蚀性能、耐老化性能、耐水性能及表面性能进行了研究。结果表明：在相同测试时间内,以复合材料为基体的涂膜（S-FPU/AT-KH550和S-FPU/AT-MDI）的耐电化学腐蚀性能更优,涂膜损坏程度低;水环境中涂膜能够对金属实现良好的保护,防止金属基材生锈,涂膜不起泡,不脱落,变色、失光现象不明显,其中S-FPU/AT-MDI涂膜的性能最好,涂膜表面疏水性更优。