The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Structural Modeling and Forecasting During the Recent Financial Crises

The paper investigates the determinants of the US dollar/euro within the framework of the asset pricing theory of exchange rate determination, which posits that current exchange rate fluctuations are determined by the entire path of current and future revisions in expectations about fundamentals. In this perspective, we innovate by conditioning on Fama–French and Carhart risk factors, which directly measures changing market expectations about the economic outlook, on new financial condition indexes and macroeconomic variables. The macro‐finance augmented econometric model has a remarkable in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability, largely outperforming a standard autoregressive specification. We also document a stable relationship between the US dollar/euro Carhart momentum conditional correlation (CCW) and the euro area business cycle. CCW signals a progressive weakening in economic conditions since June 2014, consistent with the scattered recovery from the sovereign debt crisis and the new Greek solvency crisis exploded in late spring/early summer 2015. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于模糊综合理论的铁路建设项目综合后评价研究

进入21世纪以来,铁路作为人类社会赖以生存的基础设施,一直在国家固定资产投资中占据着主导地位,因此,如何提高铁路建设项目的质量就显得尤为关键。本文提出铁路建设项目综合后评价的概念,并将铁路建设项目综合后评价的内容概括为工程管理水平、投融资管理水平和财务效益水平三个部分。在此基础上,建立了基于模糊综合理论的铁路建设项目综合后评价的模糊综合评价模型,并通过实例验证了该模型的实用性。     

Museums and scientific material culture at the University of Toronto

Since its foundation in the mid-nineteenth century, the University of Toronto has accumulated a substantial number of historically-significant scientific objects. As Canada’s largest research university, much of this material is of national significance. Despite numerous attempts since the late 1970s to establish a universal policy for the preservation and safeguarding of scientific apparatus, the survival of Toronto’s scientific material heritage has depended partly on the initiatives of dedicated individuals, partly on luck.The following examination seeks a comprehensive history of the material culture of science at the University, focussing on scientific instrumentation and natural history collections. It examines the circumstances under which some material survives and traces efforts to develop a curated collection, concluding with some recent progress in acquiring storage and developing an online catalogue. It argues that early university science museums formed an important venue through which the University fulfilled its public function of studying the frontier and assisting the expansion of the colonies. The display and interpretation of scientific material culture had an important impact on the University’s early history.     

The silence of the norms: The missing historiography of The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

History has been disparaged since the late 19th century for not conforming to norms of scientific explanation. Nonetheless, as a matter of fact a work of history upends the regnant philosophical conception of science in the second part of the 20th century. Yet despite its impact, Kuhn’s Structure has failed to motivate philosophers to ponder why works of history should be capable of exerting rational influence on an understanding of philosophy of science. But all this constitutes a great irony and a mystery. The mystery consists of the persistence of a complete lack of interest in efforts to theorize historical explanation. Fundamental questions regarding why an historical account could have any rational influence remain not merely unanswered, but unasked. The irony arises from the fact that analytic philosophy of history went into an eclipse where it remains until this day just around the time that the influence of Kuhn’s great work began to make itself felt. This paper highlights puzzles long ignored regarding the challenges a work of history managed to pose to the epistemic authority of science, and what this might imply generally for the place of philosophy of history vis-à-vis the problems of philosophy.     

Scientists and their cultural heritage: Knowledge,politics and ambivalent relationships

For many years, scientific heritage has received attention from multiple actors from different spheres of activity—archives, museums, scientific institutions. Beyond the heterogeneity revealed when examining the place of scientific heritage in different places, an authentic patrimonial configuration emerges and takes the form of a nebula of claims and of accomplishments that result, in some cases, in institutional and political recognition at the national level, in various country all around the world. At the international level, the creation of the international committee dedicated to University Museums and Collections (UMAC) within the International Council of Museums (ICOM) certainly testified from this raising interest in academic heritage and the existence of a specific community concern with it.This article presents numerous initiatives for the preservation of scientific heritage in France, with the goal of analysing the relationship scientists have with their heritage. We argue that scientific communities have a special relationship with heritage, which is characterized by a number of ambiguities. We show that such ambivalences allow analysis of identity, discipline, professional, and social issues operative in defining heritage and being redefined by heritage. To explore these dimensions, we have chosen to present three different case studies. The first traces the institutional uses of heritage by a scientific institution, the Commissariat à l’énergie atomique (CEA), through the transformation of the first French atomic reactor (ZOE) into a museum. The second example describes the initiatives of French astronomers from the mid-1990s to construct a national programme for the protection of astronomy heritage. Lastly, we recount the case of universities, with the example of the Université de Strasbourg.     

基于能力分析的空间对抗装备体系效能评估方法

首先研究了空间对抗的核心能力要素;然后研究了空间对抗装备体系的构成,即将核心能力要素细化为基本能力要素并映射到空间对抗装备子系统;最后构建由作战能力指标→核心能力指标及权重赋值→基本能力指标及权重赋值→单项效能指标及权重赋值组成的指标体系,并提出基于该指标体系的单项效能评价→系统综合评价→体系综合评价→作战效能评价→结果验证的综合评估途径.     

相控阵多址系统中通道间群时延不一致性分析

首先从数学公式分析了多用户相控阵通信系统的通道时延将会引起调制数据过零点出现偏移;再针对多通道时延不一致的情况,通过理论和仿真分析发现,如果空分处理前不进行通道间时延均衡而直接进行数字波束形成处理,会使得输出信号失真,系统误码性能恶化.     

国内外物联网研究现状及展望

物联网以互联网为基础,通过多种信息传感装置实现物物互联,是信息科技领域发展的必然趋势.本文就物联网的基本概念、技术体系、关键技术等方面对物联网进行介绍,并根据一些事实对近年来国内外物联网的发展现状进行阐述,提出现阶段物联网发展存在的问题,最后对其未来发展进行了展望.     

基于主成分回归分析的瓦斯含量预测

为了增加多元回归模型预测的精度,将主成分分析与多元回归分析相结合提出了PCA—MRA模型,并将该模型用于实际瓦斯含量预测。结果表明,PCA—MRA模型消除了输入变量之间的相关性,减少了输入变量值个数,提高了预测精度,便于实际推广和应用,为瓦斯含量预测提供一种新的途径。