What do numerical (climate) models really represent?

The translation of a mathematical model into a numerical one employs various modifications in order to make the model accessible for computation. Such modifications include discretizations, approximations, heuristic assumptions, and other methods. The paper investigates the divergent styles of mathematical and numerical models in the case of a specific piece of code in a current atmospheric model. Cognizance of these modifications means that the question of the role and function of scientific models has to be reworked. Neither are numerical models pure intermediaries between theory and data, nor are they autonomous tools of inquiry. Instead, theory and data are transformed into a new symbolic form of research due to the fact that computation has become an essential requirement for every scientific practice. Therefore the question is posed: What do numerical (climate) models really represent?     

基于信用评级的商业银行贷款风险定价模型

建立了一个基于信用评级体系的风险定价模型.通过模型证明一笔贷款的价格不仅与借款人的预期违约率和贷款回收率有关,而且与借款人在贷款期间信用等级的变化有关.贷款的价格(利率)与借款人信用恶化的程度和发生的概率正相关.利用实际数据求出了各信用等级借款人的利率、风险价值和经济资本等参数.     

关注房屋预售制度慎防房贷风险

房屋预售制度是一项给予房地产开发商的扶持政策,但从实践来看,它在推动房地产市场繁荣的同时,也为房地产开发商利用其制度缺陷掠夺财富提供了便利,从而给提供房贷的银行带来了金融风险,进而威胁社会的金融稳定。阐述了我国房屋预售制度的历史与现状,讨论了房屋预售制度的负效应及取消之后可能造成的影响,提出了加大监管力度、完善房屋预售制度、防范房贷风险的建议。     

基于有序Logistic回归模型的北京高校男生有氧能力

为探索北京高校男生有氧能力的影响因素,通过随机抽样法抽取134名18~25岁北京高校男生,空腹抽静脉血测血液指标,用德国MetaMax 3B系统实时监测气体代谢,通过线性递增方案测得VO2max相对值。基于Spearman相关、有序Logistic回归等分析方法进行分析处理。结果表明：北京高校男生有序Logistic回归方程：Ln{P(Y≤1|x)/1-P(Y≤1|x)}=-2.757-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5;Ln{P(Y≤2|x)/1-P(Y≤2|x)}=-0.771-0.067*X1-0.025*X2+0.066*X3+0.018*X4-0.009*X5（X1=体重、X2=心率(heart rate, HR)、X3=每搏输出量(stroke volume, SVI)、X4=心室射血时间(ventricular ejection time, VET)、X5=血红蛋白(hemoglobin, HGB)）。回归方程模型系数综合检验步(step)、块(block)、模型(model)检验的P值均小于0.01;拟合优度检验的-2对数似然值(-2LL)为159.374,Cox&SnellR2为0.331,NagelkerkeR2为0.373;预测等级1准确率为45.5%,等级2准确率为100%,等级3准确率为100%,综合为81.8%,说明Logistic回归模型性能良好。Hosmer和Lemeshow检验预测值与观望值无显著性差异（P>0.05）。可见北京高校男生定量负荷心功能、血液指标与有氧能力的多元Logistic回归模型拟合度较好,且HR、SVI、VET、HGB是有氧运动能力的重要预测因素。     

虚拟现实城市模型的快速生成算法研究

在城市规划方面应用虚拟现实方法，首先要建立三维城市模型。在本文所提供的方法中，建筑物的几何特征由很精确的CAD图表示。并且有手工的纹理或真实图像贴在面上和建筑物的屋顶。高度数据是通过航空激光扫描和已有的地面建筑规划合成，通过集成这些不同类型的信息来自动地获取数据。通过纹理处理来生成虚拟现实城市模型，从而获得真实感图像。因此，快速获取三维城市GIS是可行的。     

向量自回归模型参数估计矩阵的渐近分布

讨论了向量自回归模型参数的估计矩阵П^、Ω^的渐近分布，给出并证明了两个相应的结论．     

Optimization of strand and final electromagnetic stirrers of round bloom casters with multiple sections

Strand electromagnetic stirring (S-EMS) and final electromagnetic stirring (F-EMS) are the main methods used to improve the center porosity and segregation for round blooms. To optimize the stirring conditions, nail shooting tests were conducted for three sections of large round blooms with diameters of ?380 mm, ?450 mm, and ?600 mm. Acid leaching and sulfur print tests were used to investigate the shell thickness. Based on the results of nail shooting tests, a mathematical model of solidification was established, and the variation of shell thickness and the central solid fraction were exactly calculated by the model. By taking all sections into account, the locations of S-EMS and F-EMS were optimized for each section. In the results, the macro-segregation of various sections is improved after the locations of S-EMS and F-EMS systems are changed.     

螺旋槽盘形铣刀数学模型的建立

采用分析计算法详细分析并建立了螺旋槽盘形铣刀的数学模型 ,并在此基础上用 Visual Basic语言编写了螺旋槽盘形铣刀刃形参数化设计及绘图软件 ,大大提高了螺旋槽盘形铣刀的参数化计算精度和设计效率。     

战后初期美国联邦政府高等教育助学贷款政策探析

经历了30年代大萧条和第二次世界大战,美国开始和平时期的建设。为了在冷战中处于优势地位,联邦政府十分关注高等教育的发展。其助学贷款政策正式确立于1958年,1965年又设立了"担保学生贷款"。作为战后初期的两项主要的助学贷款政策,它们为国家培养各类专业人才,实现高等教育机会平等做出了重大的贡献。     

浅议我国银团贷款发展的制约因素及对策

分析了银团贷款的特点和优势,概述了我国银团贷款发展现状及制约因素,阐述了大力推进我国银团贷款发展的对策建议。