汉英构词新趋势比较

随着社会的发展和文明的进步,语言中最活跃的部分——词汇也反映出这一变化。英语和汉语中新造词、仿造词、外来词这三种构词方式由来已久,但在最近一段时间内出现一些新的趋势。本文拟从这三方面就汉英构词新趋势进行探讨。     

Bioaccumulation processes in ecosystems

The fate of environmental pollutants — the various isotopes of elements, and inorganic or organic compounds — is a fundamental aspect of ecology and ecotoxicology, and bioaccumulation is a phenomenon often discussed in this context. Human activities have drastically altered natural concentrations of many substances in the environment and added numerous new chemicals. An understanding of the processes of bioaccumulation is important for several reasons. 1) Bioaccumulation in organisms may enhance the persistence of industrial chemicals in the ecosystem as a whole, since they can be fixed in the tissues of organisms. 2) Stored chemicals are not exposed to direct physical, chemical, or biochemical degradation. 3) Stored chemicals can directly affect an individual's health. 4) Predators of those organisms that have bioaccumulated harmful substances may be endangered by food chain effects. While former theories on the processes of bioaccumulation focused on single aspects that affect the extent of accumulation (such as the trophic level within the food chain or the lipophilicity of the chemical), modern theories are based on compartmental kinetics and the integration of various environmental interactions. Concepts include results from quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR), pharmacokinetics, ecophysiology and general biology, molecular genetic aspects and selection, and finally the structure of communities and man-made alterations in them.     

Multiple time-series modelling: Another look at the canadian money and income data

The practice of modelling the components of a vector time series to arrive at a joint model for the vector is considered. It is shown that in some cases this is not unreasonable. A vector ARMA model is used to model the Canadian money and income data. We also use these data to discuss the issue of differencing a multiple time series. Finally, models based on first and second differences are compared using forecasts.     

从汉语"时髦词"分析源于英语的外来语

随着社会、经济的发展,大量的外来语进入汉语,成为时髦词.在这些时髦词中,很多是源于英语的外来语.外来语的存在形式共有七种.源于英语的外来语大量进入,反映了社会的进步,人的素质的提高及人们对新事物的心态.     

The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

非线性贝叶斯动态模型的一种处理方法

对一类非线性贝叶斯动态模型进行了处理。用筛选算法进行抽样，利用得到的样本进行各种推断和预测。     

The impact of parameter and model uncertainty on market risk predictions from GARCH‐type models

We study the effect of parameter and model uncertainty on the left‐tail of predictive densities and in particular on VaR forecasts. To this end, we evaluate the predictive performance of several GARCH‐type models estimated via Bayesian and maximum likelihood techniques. In addition to individual models, several combination methods are considered, such as Bayesian model averaging and (censored) optimal pooling for linear, log or beta linear pools. Daily returns for a set of stock market indexes are predicted over about 13 years from the early 2000s. We find that Bayesian predictive densities improve the VaR backtest at the 1% risk level for single models and for linear and log pools. We also find that the robust VaR backtest exhibited by linear and log pools is better than the backtest of single models at the 5% risk level. Finally, the equally weighted linear pool of Bayesian predictives tends to be the best VaR forecaster in a set of 42 forecasting techniques.     

中国古典诗歌对美国现代诗歌的影响

中国古典诗歌对美国现代诗的影响，是中国文化西传产生的重要成果之一，是中西比较文学研究中一个重要的课题，它足足影响了欧美三代诗人的诗歌创作，本文试举例说明这些跨越时空的对话的主要模式和媒介，以及这种双向文化交流的现实意义。     

韶关市加快发展住房金融的几点思考

住房金融业已成为直接影响韶关市房地产业发展的重要因素，阐述韶关住房金融业务发展的现状，分析韶关市发展住房金融的有利条件和存在的主要问题，并结合韶关市的实际情况提出相应的对策。