Cladocera and Copepoda of Shokalsky Island: new data from northwest Siberia

Information on the freshwater fauna of the remote Arctic territories is very patchy, and most of the isolated islands of the Arctic Ocean remain absolutely unexplored. The pioneer data on the species composition of microcrustaceans of Shokalsky Island (northwest Siberia, Russia) is reported here. The initial three-year research revealed a total of 31 new for the area species of Cladocera and Copepoda, including new records for the whole of northwestern Siberia. Comparing the interannual differences in faunal composition, we suggested the hypothesis of the existence of a cryptic pool of species’ resting stages, which can invade the community in the event of favourable environmental conditions in the Arctic freshwaters. We also compiled all the available data from different parts of northern Siberia and compared them with the fauna of Shokalsky Island to analyse the connection between the diversity and distributional patterns of copepods and cladoceran species and the climate conditions of different territories.     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

Global vegetation change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years①

Vegetation cover change is critical for understanding impacts and responses of vegetation to climate change. A study found that vegetation in the regions between 45°N-70°N was increasing using normalized difference vegetation index( NDVI) from 1981 to 1991 ten years ago. The global vegetation growth has changed because of climate change in recent twelve years( 2001- 2012). After thorough analysis based on satellite data,it is found that it is evident that the global vegetation changed( NDVI) little,and it is increasing slightly in Northern hemisphere while it is decreasing slightly in Southern Hemisphere. For different latitudes,vegetation is increasing 0.17% every year from 60°N to 70 °N( R~2= 0.47,P 0.013),while the vegetation is decreasing 0.11% every year from 10°N to 10° S( R~2= 0.54,P 0.004). For different continents,the vegetation in South America is decreasing 0.16% every year( R~2= 0.78,P 0.0001) and it is increasing 0.05% every year in Asia( R~2= 0.28,P 0.072) and 0.25% every year in Oceania( R~2= 0.24,P 0.1). The analysis of global vegetation in different seasons indicates that spatial distribution of global temperature and water vapor will affect the spatial distribution of vegetation,in turn,the spatial distribution of vegetation will also regulate the global temperature and water vapor spatial distribution at large scale. The growth and distribution of vegetation are mainly caused by the orbit of the celestial bodies,and a big data model based on gravitational-magmatic change with the solar or the galactic system as its center is proposed to be built for analyzing how the earth's orbit position in the solar and galaxy system affects spatial-temporal variations of global vegetation and temperature at large scale. These findings promise a holistic understanding of the global climate change and potential underlying mechanisms.     

西藏盐湖生物与生态资源及其开发利用

 以科研团队多年工作成果为基础,对藏北209个湖泊进行面积、盐度分类,结合藏北的生态特征和生态需求,阐述了可开展西藏盐湖卤虫生态修复的湖泊水域资源潜力,发展盐湖农业的优势与意义,以及盐湖水系生物资源开发的生态保护原则。阐述了西藏湖泊水域的浮游植物、浮游动物、大型水生植物的物种资源及其分布特征,以及硅藻、卤虫、盐藻、水木耳（念珠藻）、轮藻、细叶眼子菜的资源及其科学与经济价值。阐述了西藏盐湖生态修复的生态意义和藏北高原盐湖卤虫生态修复的经济重要性,并从产业发展角度分析西藏拟溞、盐藻等的资源现状及其开发利用,提出以冷水鱼为特色产业的水域资源优势与发展前景。     

气候变化下长三角城市群基础设施脆弱性评估及空间分析

城市基础设施是城市应对气候变化的关键环节。为了探究气候变化下城市基础设施系统的脆弱性及其空间分布特征,将脆弱性三要素理论与空间分析方法相结合,构建出气候变化下城市基础设施脆弱性的空间分析框架,并以长三角城市群各地级市为对象进行实证分析。通过脆弱性三要素的空间分布与空间相关性分析,发现三类要素的空间分布特征各异,脆弱性更多地取决于城市单元个体的行政级别、经济水平以及所属行政区域等因素,应将降低基础设施脆弱性的策略体系融入区域一体化政策中。     

山东省农业科技创新主体研究

目前山东省农业科技创新主体成为制约农业科技创新发展的重要因素,从农业科技创新过程的各个阶段及各阶段的不同主体入手,结合各创新主体的特点,本着实现农业科技创新各阶段无缝衔接的原则,设计理想的农业科技创新主体的逻辑关系,即农业龙头企业是农业科技创新主体的核心,高校和科研机构是农业科技基础研究和理论研究创新的主体和中试的主体,农户是基层技术创新的主体,政产学研用对各创新主体的凝聚作用,通过多样化联系形式,将不同阶段的创新主体联系起来;并有针对性地提出相应的对策建议。     

严寒地区无砟轨道温度场及轨道板温度梯度预估模型

严寒地区无砟轨道结构的温度荷载取值,是轨道结构设计及服役性能研究急需解决的关键工程问题。基于东北地区大连、沈阳、长春、哈尔滨四个主要城市的历史气象数据及热力学基本原理,建立了CRTS Ⅰ 型板式无砟轨道-路基结构热力学模型,分析在不利气象条件下无砟轨道-路基结构温度场分布特征,拟合计算结果建立了轨道板最大正负温度梯度与气象数据关系预估模型,对东北严寒地区轨道板最不利温度梯度进行讨论。结果表明：CRTS Ⅰ 型板式无砟轨道-路基结构内部温度垂向分布呈非线性,0.2米深度范围内,轨道板及路基的日温度变化幅度较为剧烈,在一日内承受正负温度梯度的交替作用,1.4m深度后路基的温度趋于平稳,变化幅度可以忽略;通过日气温温差、日太阳辐射总量、风速三个主要气象数据,可以较好的预估CRTS Ⅰ 型板式无砟轨道轨道板一日内的最大正负温度梯度;轨道板的最大正温度梯度与日温差和太阳辐射总量成正比,与风速成反比,轨道板的最大负温度梯度与日温差、太阳辐射量及风速成正比。     

从工业文明走向生态文明的契机——气候危机的哲学反思

全球气候博弈的实质是各国在承认地球资源和承载能力有限的前提下力图在未来世界能源、资源分配和温室气体排放空间的分配中获得尽可能大的份额。美国与中国的个案分析表明:气候公地的悲剧源于博弈主体对于自身短期利益的追求及对人类根本利益的忽视。具体说来,发达国家受制于自由民主制度放纵的内部博弈,而发展中国家则更多的受制于国际体系的无政府状态与不平等现状下外部博弈引发的安全需求。气候危机将人类带入困境的同时也加速了人类从工业文明迈向生态文明的进程。公地悲剧的出路在于强化国家在应对气候方面的作用;加强转型时期政策的系统性;以政治上的预防原则对应吉登斯悖论;国际社会对于责任认定的公平化。     

青藏高原东北部西宁盆地中始新世-渐新世沉积物颜色与气候变化

始新世-渐新世是古近纪气候变化中最显著的时期.通过对西宁盆地42.5～26.0 Ma沉积物颜色指标的详细分析,发现颜色参数L*,a*,b*曲线明显以32.8 Ma为界分为上下两段.其中:L*值在下段(42.5～32.8 Ma)波动剧烈并呈缓慢降低趋势,至32.8 Ma左右大幅度降低,此后(32.8～26.0 Ma)波动变小、稍有回升;a*,b*值则与L*值的变化趋势相反,在下段(42.5～32.8 Ma)呈逐渐增大趋势,剧烈波动,在32.8 Ma左右时突然大幅度升高.至上段波动变小.结合西宁盆地孢粉、有机质及CaCO3质量分数变化的特征分析,该区域在32.8 Ma时可能发生大幅度的降温事件(对应于海洋记录所揭示的Oi-1事件),此事件之前气候干旱程度相对较弱、氧化作用逐渐增强、气候波动剧烈.在Oi-1事件之后大陆性干旱程度增强、氧化强烈、气候波动幅度较小.这是在该区高分辨率获得Oi-1事件前后气候变化的记录.它对始新世-渐新世全球气候变冷背景下陆地系统响应研究具有重要意义.