从产业结构分析到图书馆发展

把迈克尔·波特的竞争理论引用到图书馆的竞争领域,目的是利用迈克尔·波特的产业结构分析方法,通过研究对图书馆发展产生影响的几种主要环境因素,试图为图书馆找到更有竞争力的发展道路。     

论大学图书馆读者权益及其保护

论述了大学图书馆读者权益的概念及内容,分析了读者权益保护的依据,提出大学图书馆读者权益保护的策略。     

市场经济下行业博物馆的生存与发展

分析了我国行业博物馆目前存在的问题,针对性地提出了行业博物馆应对市场经济的措施。     

基于预聚类主动半监督的作战体系效能评估

针对作战仿真实验中体系效能通常依靠专家评估、评估代价较大的问题,提出一种基于预聚类主动半监督学习的作战体系效能评估方法。明确了使用该方法进行作战体系效能评估的基本流程,以及自顶向下的评估模式和二值化的评估标准。重点构建了预聚类主动半监督学习算法,首先,结合作战仿真实验数据的特点,对未评估样本进行预聚类,选择最有价值的样本供专家标注;然后,使用已标注的样本训练主动学习算法和半监督学习算法的公用学习器;最后,利用主动学习算法挑选价值较高的样本交由专家评估,并利用新样本对学习器进行不断更新。作战仿真实验数据表明,该方法在达到预期评估准确度的同时降低了评估代价,能有效应用于大规模作战仿真实验的体系效能评估。     

水泥混凝土路面板底脱空的原因及防治措施

根据水泥混凝土路面破坏情况的调查,分析了混凝土路面产生板底脱空现象的原因及其防治措施,对预防早期破坏,延长水泥混凝土路面的使用寿命具有指导意义.     

稀浆封层路面层间黏结性能试验研究

为了对稀浆封层层间黏结性能进行评价,自行设计了以改进的剪切仪为基础的试验方法,能较好地模拟路面真实受力情况.试验结果说明,随着温度的升高,稀浆封层与沥青碎石下面层之间黏结强度在减小;不同的路面层间处理措施对黏结强度均有明显的影响;采用较大公称粒径的沥青混合料,或者对路面做凿毛处理均可以有效提高层间黏结强度.     

行政合同概念之检讨与重塑

行政合同概念的界定是研究进而规范行政合同的基础。长期以来,学界关于行政合同概念的界定多有分歧,主要表现在行政合同主体的范围、行政合同法律关系的归属、行政合同主体的意思自治程度、行政合同主体的地位等方面。从行政合同的主体要素、内容要素、意思要素、目的要素、地位要素和形式要素等方面进行综合分析,可以对行政合同作如下界定,即所谓"行政合同",是指为了公共目的,行政主体与行政相对人依法设立、变更、终止行政法上权利义务关系的协议及以之为载体实施行政行为的方式。     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations

This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

员工隐私泄漏途径、危害及保护对策

针对员工在应聘、聘用以及解聘后都有可能面临各种隐私泄漏问题,总结目前员工隐私泄露的各种途径,以及隐私泄露对员工和企业所带来的危害,并参考国内外该领域知名学者之前的研究,从四个角度提出员工隐私保护对策.