基于时间序列分析的独居老人活动量研究

为解决独居老人日常生活的监护问题, 提出一种基于时间序列分析与模糊模式识别的独居老人活动量研究方法。该方法将独居老人的日常活动量作为对独居老人生活状况监测的有效指标, 并利用时间序列分析对活动量时间序列建立预测模型, 利用模糊模式识别法鉴别活动量监测值与活动量预测值之间的差距, 当两者之间的差距超过正常范围时, 将预警信息反映给老人的监护人, 以便监护人对老人的生活状态是否异常予以关注。实验结果表明, 该方法对老人异常状态的识别准确率为96. 97%。从而为老人生活状况的研究提供了一种新的方法和途径。     

非线性时间序列定性相空间推理方法研究

提出一种基于定性仿真的非线性时间序列重构相空间的方法,定性相空间推理是其关键一步。通过时间序列定性状态的抽象来裁减其状态空间,规约行为轨迹,重构其定性相空间图。用3变量Lorenz系统产生的数据流对算法进行验证,结果表明能够保留原始相空间图的几何形状和拓扑关系,捕捉到相空间图中存在的行为轨迹的特征。     

Localization and the interface between quantum mechanics, quantum field theory and quantum gravity II: The search of the interface between QFT and QG

The main topics of this second part of a two-part essay are some consequences of the phenomenon of vacuum polarization as the most important physical manifestation of modular localization. Besides philosophically unexpected consequences, it has led to a new constructive “outside-inwards approach” in which the pointlike fields and the compactly localized operator algebras which they generate only appear from intersecting much simpler algebras localized in noncompact wedge regions whose generators have extremely mild almost free field behavior.Another consequence of vacuum polarization presented in this essay is the localization entropy near a causal horizon which follows a logarithmically modified area law in which a dimensionless area (the area divided by the square of dR where dR is the thickness of a light-sheet) appears. There are arguments that this logarithmically modified area law corresponds to the volume law of the standard heat bath thermal behavior. We also explain the symmetry enhancing effect of holographic projections onto the causal horizon of a region and show that the resulting infinite dimensional symmetry groups contain the Bondi–Metzner–Sachs group. This essay is the second part of a partitioned longer paper.     

存在论视域中的艺术生产——兼论存在论对马克思艺术生产理论的补充与发展

存在论指出艺术生产是一个存在论上的事件,并不是一个主体的事件,存在论在艺术生产的本质、艺术生产的动力及艺术价值等方面,全面深化、补充和发展了马克思艺术生产理论。艺术生产的本质是存在显现的过程,艺术生产的动力来自于由混沌向已在变化的精神能量,而艺术价值的产生来自于这一精神能量所形成对存在背景的领悟。     

基于游客类型的旅游企业自愿环境行动演化模型

基于游客类型的企业自愿环境行动演化模型表明,当景区有更高比例的生态游客和较高的资源环境自净能力时,就会有更多的旅游企业实施自愿环境行动。景区游客总数量、企业总数量对旅游企业实施自愿环境行动的影响具有不确定性。     

基于EWB的数字电子钟设计

采用电子设计平台EWB512，设计了可实现24小时制具有调时、定闹钟功能的电子钟。综述了该电子钟的构成及功能，详细介绍了其各个构成模块的原理和具体电路的实现，提出了进一步改进和完善方案。     

交通流宏微观参数关系方程组实证分析

本文以James H．Banks关于平均时间间隔的研究为基础，提出交通流宏微观参数关系方程组，理论上较全面地描述两类交通参数的关系；应用实测交通数据对该方程组进行数据实证。分析表明，使用关系方程组产生的偏差不仅与统计时间间隔有关，而且与检测点的位置、交通状态相关。通过分析关系方程组的推导可知，偏差源于两个等式在理论上与实际运用中的不同。     

ARFIMA approximation and forecasting of the limiting aggregate structure of long‐memory process

This article studies Man and Tiao's (2006) low‐order autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average (ARFIMA) approximation to Tsai and Chan's (2005b) limiting aggregate structure of the long‐memory process. In matching the autocorrelations, we demonstrate that the approximation works well, especially for larger d values. In computing autocorrelations over long lags for larger d value, using the exact formula one might encounter numerical problems. The use of the ARFIMA(0, d, d?₁) model provides a useful alternative to compute the autocorrelations as a really close approximation. In forecasting future aggregates, we demonstrate the close performance of using the ARFIMA(0, d, d?₁) model and the exact aggregate structure. In practice, this provides a justification for the use of a low‐order ARFIMA model in predicting future aggregates of long‐memory process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新型微生物源天然食品防腐剂及其抑菌性能

天然食品防腐剂按其来源不同可分为植物源天然防腐剂、动物源天然防腐剂以及微生物源天然防腐剂等类型。天然微生物源食品防腐剂由于其本身的优越性,越来越受到人们的青睐。主要对5种新型微生物源天然食品防腐剂(即乳球菌肽、溶菌酶、聚赖氨酸、苯乳酸及曲酸)的理化特性、抑菌机制和抑菌特性等进行了概括和论述,旨在为我国新型、安全、高效微生物源天然食品防腐剂的研究和开发提供参考。     

Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time‐varying) non‐central co‐moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co‐moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.