马尔可夫链在太湖流域梅雨期预报中的应用

依据1954~1991年太湖流域的入、出梅日期以及梅雨集中期,应用马尔可夫链预报了太湖流域1992年和1993年的梅雨期,并利用其平稳分布分析了梅雨期系统在各状态下的概率.应用结果表明:在太湖流域气候条件稳定的情况下,历史数据越多越精确,预测也就越可靠;以马氏链预测梅雨状态的方法是一种概率预报方法,需通过大量的预测检验才能显示出该方法的准确性和可靠性.     

SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dating for volcanic rocks of the Dasi Formation in southeast Hubei Province, middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and its implications

The Jinniu Basin in southeast Hubei,located at the westernmost part of middle-lower val-ley of the Yangtze River,is one of the important vol-canic basins in East China. Volcanic rocks in the Jin-niu Basin are distributed mainly in the Majiashan Formation,the Lingxiang Formation and the Dasi Formation,consisting of rhyolite,basalt and basaltic andesite,(trachy)-basalt and basaltic trachy-andesite and (trachy)-andesite and (trachy)-dacite and rhyolite respectively,in which the Dasi volcanism is volumet-rically dominant and widespread. The Dasi volcanic rocks were selected for SHRIMP zircon U-Pb dating to confirm the timing of volcanism. The results indi-cate that there exist a large amount of magmatic zir-cons characterized by high U and Th contents in the volcanic rocks. The concordia ages for 13 points are 128 ± 1Ma (MSWD = 3.0). On account of the shape of zircons and Th/U ratios,this age is considered to represent the crystallization time of the Dasi volcan-ism. The volcanic rocks in the Dasi,Majiashan and Lingxiang Formations share similar trace elementand REE partition patterns as well as Sr-Nd isotopic compositions. In combination with the regional geol-ogy,it is proposed that the southeast Hubei volcanic rocks were formed mainly during the Early Creta-ceous,just like other volcanic basins in middle-lower Yangtze valley. A lithospheric extension is also sug-gested for tectonic regime in this region in the Cre-taceous Period.     

Depositional environments of Bathonian sediments from the Jaisalmer Basin, Rajasthan, western India

The pericratonic sedimentary Jaisalmer Basin, west of the Aravalli Ranges, on the westerly dipping eastern flank of the Indus Shelf, is a principal structural element of Rajasthan. Jurassic sediments in the SE comprise non-marine sandstones and conglomerates to nearshore, brackish to marine sands, silts, clays and carbonates, grouped lithostratigraphically into the Lathi, Jaisalmer, Baisakhi, and Bhadasar formations. The Late Bajocian to Oxfordian Jaisalmer Formation is divided, in ascending order, into the Hamira, Joyan, Fort, Badabag, Kuldhar, and Jajiya members. Fossil records providing a Bajocian to Bathonian age for the lower and middle parts of the formation include: a Late Bajocian coral Isastraea bernardiana (d’Orbigny) in the uppermost Joyan Member; Bathonian ammonite Clydoniceras in the basal part of the Badabag Member; Bathonian foraminiferal/bivalve assemblages in the Fort Member. The topmost bed of the Joyan Member represents the peak of first marine transgression of the Jaisalmer Basin, probably contemporaneous with the Late Bajocian one in the neighbouring Kachchh Basin. Based on faunal studies Bajocian to Bathonian sediments of the Jaisalmer Basin can be broadly correlated with those of the Kachchh Basin. The Fort and Badabag members represent the following depositional environments, in chronological order: (a) brackish to shallow fully marine; (b) fully marine with rapidly fluctuating water energy and sedimentation rates; (c) near-shore to lower shoreface with fluctuating energy conditions, salinity and sedimentation rates; (d) near-shore to shoreface channels and storm-dominated marine above fair-weather wave-base; (e) lagoon with fluctuating low to moderate energy, salinity and sedimentation rates; (f) stormdominated shelf to lower shoreface.     

塔里木盆地库车褶皱冲断带的构造特征与油气聚集

根据地面地质调查和地震剖面解释 ,认为库车褶皱冲断带具有分带组合的构造特点 ,即由南侧的滑脱褶皱和北侧的断展褶皱相互匹配 ,实例有喀桑托开背斜与吉迪克背斜、吐孜麻扎背斜与大宛齐背斜、亚克里克背斜与米斯坎塔格背斜以及东秋里塔格背斜与亚肯背斜等 .除了南北分带、上下分层和东西分段特征外 ,库车褶皱冲断带还具有构造分块特点 ,自西向东依次可分却勒、克拉、迪那和阳霞 4大区块 .库车褶皱冲断带的油气聚集主要与侧断坡相关背斜有关     

塔中地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩储层特征及其油气意义

为了探明塔中地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩储层特征及其油气意义 ,根据勘探资料分析 ,奥陶纪时期 ,发育了下奥陶统以白云岩为主 ,上奥陶统以灰岩为主的巨厚碳酸盐岩沉积 ;同时 ,在中、上奥陶统与塔里木盆地中部地区下奥陶统之间和上奥陶统顶部发育两个不整合面 .在构造、沉积和后生改造的共同作用下 ,碳酸盐岩发育有下奥陶统白云岩层系和中、上奥陶统灰岩层系两套储集岩系 ,以及白云岩内幕型、风化壳岩溶型、构造裂缝型、沉积相带控制型和深部流体改造型 5种主要储集体类型 .根据储层的发育与分布特征 ,提出今后塔中地区应重点加强塔中北斜坡、塔中西部和西北倾没端区域上的油气勘探 ;在纵向上 ,应加强对深部下奥陶统以白云岩内幕型储集体为储层的碳酸盐岩油气勘探工作     

川中丘陵区农村产业结构调整研究

川中丘陵区是中国重要的农业区之一．长期以来，经济结构单一，农村经济发展缓慢，农村经济结构极不合理，农村产业结构性矛盾突出，严重制约了该地区的脱贫致富和地方经济的发展，迫切需要通过调整农村产业结构，以增强经济活力，实现农村的稳定和发展．     

塔里木盆地塔中和满西地区石炭系层序地层

应用地震、钻井、测井、岩芯及分析化验资料,将塔里木盆地塔中和满西地区石炭系划分为3个地震地层层序与6个沉积层序,其中CⅠ与CⅡ层序为Ⅰ型层序,CⅢ～CⅥ层序为Ⅱ型层序.与标准的Ⅰ型层序比较,区内Ⅰ型层序低位体系域以河流沉积体系为特征,缺失盆底扇、斜坡进积复合体等深水沉积体系;Ⅱ型层序中陆架边缘体系域不发育,主要的沉积体系以浅水碳酸岩台地和海岸平原为特征.石炭系早期层序形成在起伏不平的剥蚀面之上,以填平补齐的充填沉积为主,中后期层序则发育在宽阔平坦的盆地内.这种层序格架明显不同于被动大陆边缘经典型的层序格架,反映了稳定地块内坳陷性盆地的层序特点.     

深盆气圈闭判识方法与应用

判识深盆气圈闭一般有 3种方法 :地质条件叠合法 ,理论模拟计算法 ,探测结果推定法。在深盆气勘探开发的不同阶段 ,由于研究的内容不同 ,对深盆气圈闭的判识采用的方法也不同。利用这 3种方法识别深盆气圈闭 ,可以确定圈闭的分布和发育范围 ,同时认为 ,深盆气圈闭的形成存在一个地质门限 ,进入这一门限 ,深盆气才可在圈闭内聚集成藏。将实际资料分析与理论计算相结合 ,预测了鄂尔多斯深盆气圈闭的发育范围 ,可为该盆地深盆气的勘探与开发提供依据     

Geochemical study and significance of sequential extraction in reservoir rocks of Turpan-Hamin Basin

Seven samples collected from the Turpan-Hamin Basin were treated by sequential extraction method. Analytical results indicate that the free oils, inclusion oils (oil-bearing fluid inclusions) and clay-adsorbed oils vary significantly. The geochemical characteristics of inclusion and clay-adsorbed oils correlate well with the lacustrine mudstones. The characteristics are as follows: (i) with higher Ph/nC18 ratio and lower Pr/Ph ratio; (ii) with higher values of C26 tricyclic/C24 tetracyclic terpane, C23 tricyclic ter-pane/(C23 tricyclic terpane+C3017α(H) hopane), C21/(C21+C29) sterane, Ts/Tm and C29Ts/C29l7α(H) norhopane and lower value of C19/C21 tricyclic terpane; (iii) with relatively high content of C27 and C28 sterane and lower abundance of C29 sterane and diasterane. They indicate that the early charged oils are derived from the pre-Jurassic lacustrine mudstones and the later charged oils are from the Jurassic coal-bearing strata or coals.     

太湖流域2016年、1991年大洪水对比分析

采用数理统计方法比较分析太湖流域2016 年、1991 年2 场大洪水对应的降水、水位、洪水蓄 泄及工程调控情况,结果表明:(a) 这2 个年份致洪降水发生日期和降水总量十分接近,但在时程 分布上差异明显,2016 年致洪性降水较1991 年对流域防洪更为不利;( b) 受降水影响,1991 年洪 水期太湖水位具有2 次明显上涨过程,而2016 年太湖水位系连续上涨;(c)在2016 年洪水期,作为 太湖水量主要来源的湖西、浙西入湖水量明显超过1991 年,且湖区降水量也明显大于1991 年,这 是导致太湖最高水位超过1991 年的重要原因;( d) 因治理太湖骨干工程的建成,2016 年流域洪灾 损失占GDP 的比重远低于1991 年。