含铝炸药冲击波感度的实验和数值计算研究

VB6.0已成为编制WINDOWS应用程序,数据库应用程序、多媒体程序以及Internet网上应用程序的理想工具.本程序是利用VB强大的图形图像及其多媒体处理功能,及VB中的ActiveX控件,演示天气预报的播放过程.其中主要是对图像、声音和界面的设计.     

Decision-analytic assessment of the economic value of weather forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem

A decision-analytic approach is taken to the problem of assessing the economic value of imperfect weather forecasts. Emphasis is placed on measures of the quality of such information and on the relationship between quality and economic value. The fallowing/planting problem for a spring wheat farmer is examined in detail as a specific application. It is assumed that the farmer's goal is to maximize the total expected discounted return over an infinite horizon, which places this problem within the general framework of Markov decision processes. By means of stochastic dynamic programming, the economic value to the farmer of currently available seasonal precipitation forecasts, as well as of hypothetical improvements in the quality of such forecasts, is estimated. Because the relationship between the quality and value of forecasts is highly nonlinear, the need to explicitly determine value-of-information estimates, rather than relying on quality as a surrogate for value, is made clear.     

地面风传感器加热装置设计及试验研究

在冬季雨雪、冻雨、雨凇和雾凇等天气现象发生时,自动气象站风传感器转动部件容易发生冻结,造成风向风速观测数据缺测。为解决风传感器冻结的问题,设计一种基于分级加热技术的风传感器加热装置,采用多级加热元件组合控制的方式,实现自适应启动不同级别的加热模式。通过试验对风传感器加热装置性能进行测试,以及对风向风速观测数据进行处理分析,评估风传感器加热装置在气象观测业务中应用的可行性。结果表明,带有加热装置的风传感器起到了很好的防冻结作用,运行更加稳定;带有加热装置的风向风速数据完整性优于未带有加热装置的风传感器,两者风速具有较强的相关性,相关系数均在95%以上;两者风向一致性显著,均在80%以上,十分钟风向一致性优于两分钟风向一致性。可见,风传感器加热装置可有效减少风传感器冻结发生的次数,及时消除结冰层,降低观测人员设备维护工作量,提高风传感器运行的稳定性和数据的连续性,为风传感器加热装置应用于气象观测业务提供决策支撑。     

基于天气聚类的光伏电站辐照度预测

太阳辐照度是影响光伏输出功率最直接、最显著的因素,其预测精度关系到电力系统部门的调度以及规划.受到地理纬度、海拔高度、气候复杂性的影响,传统地表辐照度预测模型精度较低.基于辐照度的天文学模型结合天气类型进行辐照度预测,通过建立太阳光照与地球大气层的几何模型,求解地外辐照度计算公式并修正晴天透明度系数,然后依据天气类型与...