Quality/value relationships for imperfect weather forecasts in a prototype multistage decision-making model

Some theoretical results concerning the nature of the relationship between the scientific quality and economic value of imperfect weather forecasts are obtained. A prototype multistage decision-making model is considered, involving only two possible actions and two possible states of weather. This particular form of model is motivated by a real-world application known as the fruit-frost problem. For an infinite-horizon, discounted version of this model it is shown that economic value remains zero below a forecast quality threshold and then rises monotonically but nonlinearly above this threshold. In particular, the relative sensitivity of economic value to changes in the quality of forecasts increases as perfect information is approached. This curve is compared with quality/value relationships that have been obtained for other versions of the model; namely, a single-stage model and a multistage, finite-horizon model.     

Mental processes and disorders: A neurobehavioral perspective in human biometeorology

Summary Research concerning the complex relation between weather and psychological processes has emphasized three important issues: methodological problems, the determination of the major behavioral factors, and the isolation of neurobiological mechanisms. This paper reviews the current status of each issue. Weather changes are most frequently associated with behaviors that are the endpoints of inferred psychological processes that include mood, subclinical pain, anxiety, and the correlates of schedule shifts. Learning and conditioning appear to mediate a powerful influence over weather-related responses. This may explain the large individual variability in these behaviors. The most well-known group effects associated with weather changes involve psychiatric populations. Clinical subpopulations may respond in different ways to different aspects of the same weather system as well as to different types of air masses. Likely neurobiological mechanisms through which meteorogenic stimuli may mediate whole organismic effects include the locus coeruleal and limbic systems. Expected psychobiological consequences are examined in detail. The magnitude and temporal-spatial characteristics of weather effects indicate they are the subject matter of behavioral epidemiology.     

考虑天气因素的空中突击任务规划

为了分析天气因素对空中突击任务的影响,采用影响图构造了考虑天气和天气预报的定性分析模型。量化了天气等级,给出了问题求解步骤;采用决策树构造了考虑天气因素的空中突击任务规划模型,并给出了具体算例,分析了天气预报的信息价值。结果表明,在空中突击任务规划中获取天气信息十分必要,获得信息的多少和精确度直接影响到突击任务益损值的大小。     

基于IBP的天气雷达超分辨率重建算法

雷达基数据分辨率不够会导致灾害性天气系统预报、跟踪的准确率低.为了提高基数据的分辨率,将迭代反投影算法应用于雷达回波超分辨率重建中,并对算法进行了改进.该方法基于对天气雷达回波使用滑动窗的重建模型,并引入时间相关性约束,由低分辨率回波重建出高分辨率回波.基于天气雷达提供的实例反射率回波,给出其超分辨率重建后的结果,并对其重建效果进行估计和比较.实验表明该方法在定量估计和视觉评价上都具有良好的高分辨率重建效果.     

北京气象局天气雷达回波阻挡订正技术研究

经过多年的建设,我国已经形成了相当规模的天气雷达监测网。由于我国地形起伏和高大建筑物的影响,新一代天气雷达在正常使用的过程中不可避免地会遇到地形遮挡的问题。以北京南郊雷达站为例,利用3 s高分辨率地形数据,充分考虑地球曲率和标准大气折射的影响下,模拟了雷达波束遮挡。根据天气雷达估测降水系统中关于地形遮挡补偿的算法对地形遮挡部分进行补偿,同时对于新增加的建筑物遮挡,增加了人工编辑地形遮挡率。最后利用天津雷达站(未遮挡部分)和北京雷达站(遮挡部分)重合的部分来验证地形遮挡补偿的有效性;此方法显著提高了混合扫描反射率产品(HSR)及降水类一系列衍生产品的质量。     

沙尘天气对安徽寿县大气气溶胶光学特性的影响

在美国能源部实施的国际大气辐射测量计划(ARM)移动观测站(AMF)2008年在安徽寿县的观测资料基础上,研究了沙尘天气对该观测站大气气溶胶光学特性的影响。研究发现,沙尘天气过程中,大气边界层内的气溶胶消光系数平均值达到0.1 km-1左右。当近地层污染严重时,消光系数最大值达到了1.1 km-1,ngstrm波长指数在最低值达到0.21,单次散射反照率(ω0)在沙尘天气过程中的平均值为0.79,最大值为0.888。     

季节变化与呼吸道和心脑血管疾病的关系

全球气候的变化,城市热岛效应的持续和加强以及热浪冲击频率的增多,给人类的健康带来了很大的压力。随着经济和技术的发展,人们生活水平的提高,疾病与气象条件之间的关系越来越受到关注。本文综述了季节变化与呼吸道和心脑血管疾病死亡和发病情况的相关性研究成果,同时对医疗气象中存在的问题,提出了一些意见和建议。     

高原太阳辐射的利弊及防护措施

太阳辐射是最基本气象学资源,并对光合作用提供了积极的辐射能源,强烈地影响着气候,并为蒸发作用提供能量。这意味着太阳辐射给气候的变化传播能量。太阳辐射在时间和空间上的分配细节如对气象、水文、农业、白天所需的日光,太阳能的利用进行数据估计至关重要。因此,太阳辐射对不同特定区域的气候起着重要的作用,对农业、气象和水文具有实质的影响。文章结合青藏高原特殊的气候、地理等特征,阐述太阳辐射对气候的重要作用和人们在户外（太阳底下）作业时,应该采取的防护措施。     

天气现象的隐喻化方式

现代语言学认为隐喻作为一种普遍的语言现象是人类认识世界的主要方式之一。人类总会用熟悉的经验，按照由近及远，由熟悉到陌生的顺序来理解周围的事物特别是抽象事物和新事物。因此天气现象这一人类基本经验便常被应用在构造概念和理解世界的过程中。本文以现代隐喻理论为基础。基于大量汉语语料的分析，探讨了风、雨、雷、闪电等天气现象的三种隐喻化方式和特点从而进一步证明了隐喻是人类最基本的思维方式。     

Observations of the first meteorological rocket of the Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project

On June 3, 2010, the first meteorological rocket of the Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project was successfully launched at the Hainan rocket launch site (19.5°N), China. This paper analyzes the vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and wind recorded by the rocket and its supportive balloons, and investigates wind shear, gravity waves and atmospheric stability. In addition, we compare the vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and wind with SABER/TIMED temperature measurements and the modeling results of MSIS00 and HWM07.