露天矿行车事故频次的灰色预测

针对露天矿运输系统行车事故发生频次数据少的缺点,采用了灰色系统理论对其进行灰建模,灰预测.验证了灰建模的可行性,阐述了灰建模基本步骤,通过实例分析了该方法的有效性和适用性,从而为露天矿调度运输系统超前采取防范措施,提供了依据,将事故损失减少到最低,做到防患于未然.     

装车站运输作业过程的可靠性研究

针对装车站站停时间的分布问题,采用分析方法,对装车站站停时间的分布规律及影响因素进行分析,探讨提高装车站作业过程可靠性的措施.根据装车站大量翔实的数据,在统计站停时间、装车时间、待机时间的分布规律基础上,建立了可靠性模型,进行了可靠性分析计算.研究结果表明,装车站作业过程的可靠性主要受装车作业时间、机务作业时间的影响.     

The Application of Similarity Theory in Designing Large Deflection Buckling Spring-Piece

Large Deflection Buckling Spring-Piece (LDBSP) refers to the deformation of an end-fixed flat spring-piece under normal loadings. Plastic deformation usually appears in LDBSP.The static characteristic curve is very particular, because within its linear deflection region, the spring constant can be designed to be any value from minus to plus. With its obvious advantages of large liner deflection range, low spring constant, etc., the LDBSP has now been extensively applied to the exciting device, low-frequency shock absorbers and so on. The static characteristic curve of LDBSP belongs to the nonlinear problem of an arch with varying section. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain it theoretically. The formulae for designing LDBSP have not been set up yet. In this study,the authors apply similarity theory to analyze the liner deflection range A and the spring constant K, and derive the relationship of similarity criterion, finally obtain a set of formulae for designing LDBSP by model test and the least square method, which can be applied in engineering design.Through the research, it is proved that it is unnecessary to keep geometrical similarity of spring-piece shape. This fact extends the application scope of the formulae. The proposed formulae for designing LDBSP thereby can be applied for any dimensions within the range allowed.     

Packet Queueing Delay in Resilient Packet Ring Network Nodes

The packet queueing delay is one of the most important performance measures of a data network and is also a significant factor to be considered in the scheduling buffer design for a network node. This paper presents a traffic queueing model for resilient packet ring (RPR) networks and a method for quantitatively analyzing queueing delays in RPR nodes. The method was used to calculate the average queueing delays of different priority traffic for different transit queue modes. The simulations show that, in the transmit direction, lower priority traffic is delayed more than higher priority traffic, and that Class-A traffic is delayed more in a single-queue ring than in a dual-queue ring. In the transit direction, the secondary transit buffer in the dual-queue ring contributes more to the traffic delay than the primary transit buffer in the single-queue ring, which in turn causes more delay than the primary transit buffer in the dual-queue ring.     

SCS模型在密云石匣试验小区降雨径流量估算中的应用

利用密云县石匣小流域 2 0 0 1年的 6场降雨及径流观测数据 ,应用SCS模型计算参数Ia 在不同水平下 2 2个试验小区的径流量 ,依据实测值对计算值进行了调整 ,得出了适合该小区的参数CN的范围 ,并将参数进行检验 ,得到了较好的结果 .     

石油企业科技进步模型的改进

传统技术进步模型在评价科技进步贡献率时 ,没有动态考虑通货膨胀和成本上扬等因素 ,忽视了时间价值的影响。根据石油企业的生产特点 ,对一般技术进步模型 (即索洛生产函数 )进行了相应的改进。既考虑了产出资源的自然递减 ,又考虑了通货膨胀及生产开发难度对投入资金的影响 ,这就保证了石油行业在投入产出上的匹配及价格上的一致。用改进后的模型对石油系统的 19个油田的科技进步贡献率进行了测算 ,其结果符合实际     

多层非均质油藏双分支井产能影响因素分析

针对多层非均质油藏地层之间压力不平衡的特点,建立了多分支井半解析产能预测模型,分析了双分支井产能的影响因素。结果表明,由于分支之间存在干扰,分支夹角越小产能损失越大;两个分支所在地层的条件差别越大,产能高的分支越不易发挥最大潜力,从而影响总产量;井筒中摩擦压降和汇合点处的压力损失对分支井的产能的影响不大。因此,在设计双分支井时,应尽量增大分支之间的夹角,分支汇合点尽量远离油层;分支井的井底流压不大于任何一个分支处的地层压力;两个分支应尽量选取生产压差接近的油层,这样就可以使两个分支都能发挥产能潜力。     

Testing and Evaluation for Web Usability Based on Extended Markov Chain Model

As the increasing popularity and complexity of Web applications and the emergence of their new characteristics. the testing and maintenance of large, complex Web applications are becoming more complex and difficult. Web applications generally contain lots of pages and are used by enormous users. Statistical testing is an effective way of ensuring their quality. Web usage can be accurately described by Markov chain which has been proved to be an ideal model for software statistical testing. The results of unit testing can b eutilized in the latter stages, wbich is an important strategy for bottom-to-top integration testing, and the other improvement of extended Markov chain model (FMM) is to present the error type vector which is treated as a part of page node. This paper also proposes the algorithm for generating test cases of usage paths. Finally, optional usage reliability evaluation methods and an incremental usability regression testing model for testing and evaluation are presented.     

Numerical tests of efficiency of the retrospective time integration scheme in the self-memory model

A set of numerical tests was carried out to compare the retrospective time integral scheme in a self-memory model,whose dynamic kernel is the barotropical quasi-geostrophic model, with the ordinary centered difference scheme in the barotropical quasigeostrophic model. The Rossby-Haurwitz wave function was taken as the initial fields for both schemes. The results show that in comparison with the ordinary centered difference scheme, the retrospective time integral scheme reduces by 2 orders of magnitude the forecast error, and the forecast error increases very little with lengthening of the time-step. Therefore, the retrospective time integral scheme has advantages of improving the forecast accuracy, extending the predictable duration and reducing the computation amount.     

磁化喷流的正反激波动力学

伽玛射线暴是宇宙中最剧烈的伽玛射线爆发现象之一.由物质主导的激波过程已经被广泛的研究过.观测表明,伽玛射线暴爆发时所产生的喷流可能是磁化的,磁化喷流与星际介质相互作用产生的正反激波和以纯物质主导的喷流情形有很大不同.对比Zhang和Kobayashi在理想磁流体力学条件下给出了正反激波的解析解,本文推导了磁化喷流正反激波的一般动力学方程,并对一些关键参数作了数值求解.