多阶段投资决策问题的一种智能化求解方法

对多阶段投资决策问题进行研究，建立一种极小化跟踪投资回报率与目标回报率偏差的多阶段投资决策模型，并将随机模拟、遗体算法和神经网络集成在动态规划之中，设计给出一种智能化的求解方法，能求得反馈形式的最优投资策略。本文给出的方法克服了传统求解方法的局限性，具有现实意义，经算例仿真验证了算法的可行性。     

目标密集情况下的跟踪滤波器

本文讨论了在目标密集情况下卡尔曼滤波器作为跟踪滤波器存在的问题。指出在目标密集时,辨识的不准确性将会使卡尔曼滤波器失去其无偏性。然后本文给出了一种改进的滤波器。这种改进的滤波器在目标密集时仍能保证无偏性。     

汉中地区交通事故GM（1，1）预测模型及目标制定

本文应用ＧＭ（１，１）模型，对汉中地区９４－９５年交通事故进行了预测，并相应制定了交通安全目标。模型预测精度高，计算结果可信、可靠，能为汉中地区交通事故预防，加强交通安全管理和决策，提供科学的定量依据。     

Exponential smoothing: The state of the art

This paper is a critical review of exponential smoothing since the original work by Brown and Holt in the 1950s. Exponential smoothing is based on a pragmatic approach to forecasting which is shared in this review. The aim is to develop state-of-the-art guidelines for application of the exponential smoothing methodology. The first part of the paper discusses the class of relatively simple models which rely on the Holt-Winters procedure for seasonal adjustment of the data. Next, we review general exponential smoothing (GES), which uses Fourier functions of time to model seasonality. The research is reviewed according to the following questions. What are the useful properties of these models? What parameters should be used? How should the models be initialized? After the review of model-building, we turn to problems in the maintenance of forecasting systems based on exponential smoothing. Topics in the maintenance area include the use of quality control models to detect bias in the forecast errors, adaptive parameters to improve the response to structural changes in the time series, and two-stage forecasting, whereby we use a model of the errors or some other model of the data to improve our initial forecasts. Some of the major conclusions: the parameter ranges and starting values typically used in practice are arbitrary and may detract from accuracy. The empirical evidence favours Holt's model for trends over that of Brown. A linear trend should be damped at long horizons. The empirical evidence favours the Holt-Winters approach to seasonal data over GES. It is difficult to justify GES in standard form–the equivalent ARIMA model is simpler and more efficient. The cumulative sum of the errors appears to be the most practical forecast monitoring device. There is no evidence that adaptive parameters improve forecast accuracy. In fact, the reverse may be true.     

数控机床伺服进给系统的跟踪精度

本文提出了描述数控机床伺服进给系统跟踪精度的新概念——跟踪精度,并对常用的闭环和半闭环伺服系统的跟踪精度计算公式进行了推导,为跟踪性能的定量描述奠定了基础。     

一种机械式电表的数字识别方法

在自然光条件下用普通相机拍摄的电表图像，分辨率较低且变形严重，对于不同表盘其数字大小、字形也不同．针对以上问题，提出了一种八方向跟踪找空洞数字识别算法，利用每个字符的空洞和缺口数目对机械式表盘上的数字进行识别．该识别算法无需对数字大小、字形进行归一化．实验表明该找空洞数字识别算法在抗干扰性方面表现良好，有效地降低了算法...     

基于指数三角函数的灰色预测模型研究与应用

基于函数变换理论，提出了对建模数据进行a^cos（x）（a〉1）变换，理论上证明了这种变换可以有效地提高建模数据序列的光滑度．拓广了灰色模型的应用范围，实例验证了所建GM（1，1）模型精度优于“对数幂函数”法所建模型，说明了该方法的有效性．     

A novel architecture for cargos location and safety in networked RFID

Using Networked RFID equipped in warehouse or supermarket distribution, Enterprise information system (EIS) can gather and deal with cargos information. Nevertheless, when cargos are in traffic, the Networked RFID can't monitor the cargos any more as the products tagged aren't within range of a reader. This paper proposes a solution framework which combines Networked RFID and GPS tracking, and then equip with this system in container to make the cargos monitored even if the cargos are in traffic. This solution can solve the accurate consignments, position tracking and advanced theft happening through drilling holes in container. In addition, customhouse and checkpoint can get an electronic shipment manifest rapidly and safely when a vehicle gets through a checkpoint.     

Trade-offs in model-building: A more target-oriented approach

In his 1966 paper “The Strategy of model-building in Population Biology”, Richard Levins argues that no single model in population biology can be maximally realistic, precise and general at the same time. This is because these desirable model properties trade-off against one another. Recently, philosophers have developed Levins’ claims, arguing that trade-offs between these desiderata are generated by practical limitations on scientists, or due to formal aspects of models and how they represent the world. However this project is not complete. The trade-offs discussed by Levins had a noticeable effect on modelling in population biology, but not on other sciences. This raises questions regarding why such a difference holds. I claim that in order to explain this finding, we must pay due attention to the properties of the systems, or targets modelled by the different branches of science.     

捷联式天线平台双通道耦合目标跟踪滤波器设计与仿真研究

采用传统速率陀螺稳定平台的导引头角跟踪系统可以直接提取用于比例导引的惯性视线角速率，而采用捷联稳定方案后，天线平台的角跟踪系统失去了直接测定视线角速率的能力，视线角速率需要通过数字计算的方法来提取。同时由于视线的旋转，实际的角跟踪系统方位和俯仰两个通道之间存在交叉耦合，与速度跟踪系统之间也具有参数耦合关系。针对上述问题，提出双通道耦合目标跟踪滤波器的设计方法，并在考虑与捷联稳定控制系统及速度跟踪系统信息相互融合的情况下，对整个角跟踪系统进行了闭环仿真，对捷联式天线平台角跟踪系统的性能进行了系统的分析。结果表明：角跟踪系统方位与俯仰通道滤波值能很好跟踪真值，提出的设计方法在捷联式天线平台角跟踪系统中的应用是有效的。