Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用单元状态的改变模拟采场破坏规律

采用能较好反映混凝土等脆性材料破坏特征的五参数Wilianm-Warnke强度准则破坏模型，利用有限单元法单元“处死”的功能模拟回采过程和相似材料模拟试验研究，初步总结出缓倾斜厚煤层悬移支架放顶煤顶板活动及矿压显现规律，为缓倾斜厚煤层悬移支架放顶煤制定较为合理的方案、安全技术措施等提供重要的依据和指导作用。     

关于函数的连续性与可导性的几点注记

在微积分学中 ,函数的连续性与可导性是函数重要的性质 ,一些特殊的函数在这方面也表现出了特殊的性质 ,本文将对这些性质进行讨论     

论网络时代高校图书馆的思想道德教育

网络对大学生的思想道德修养具有重要而深刻的影响。高校图书馆应充分认识到加强大学生思想道德教育的重要意义和自己在其中应负的责任，采取积极有效的措施，培养和提高大学生的思想道德素质。     

对模糊随机向量凸集的定义及探讨

在模糊随机变量的基础上引入了模糊随机向量凸集的概念,给出了几个模糊随机凸集的例子.     

驻波实验的计算机模拟

利用计算机进行驻波实验模拟,给出了驻波实验的计算机模拟源程序,为在计算机上进行物理实验教学、演示实验以及课件制作提供编程的依据.     

物理实验课程建设和教学改革的系统构想

探析了实验课程达不到预期培养目标的症结与成因，提出了将实验教学改革推向深入，实现课程教育培养功能的基本思路和举措。     

基于VBA三角网格土石方开挖的三维模型

利用VBA技术实现对离散高程点的三角构网,快速定位三角形。将其用于土方开挖边线处理,在此基础上重新构网。实际计算结果表明,将三角网格用于土方工程填挖量计算,可以提高计算精度并可实现填挖后的三维显示。     

三氮烯类化合物作为酸碱指示剂的研究及应用

本文报道了三氮烯类化合物作为酸碱指示剂的研究及应用.以我们新近合成的此类试剂之一——2-氯一4一硝基苯基重氮氨基偶氮苯为研究主要对象,分别讨论了有无表面活性剂存在、以及不同类型表面活性剂存在下,试剂的离解常数及变色区域.在TritonX-100存在下,其试剂的pKa=9.25±0.01,变色区域为pH8.40(黄)～10.0(紫);在CTMAB存在下,pKa=7.35士0.03,变色区域pH6.85～7.90;在混合表面活性剂TritonX-100-CTMAB存在下,pKa=8.20±0.05,变色域pH7.45～9.00(黄～紫).特别是在阳离子表面活性剂存在下,滴定终点颜色变化十分敏锐清晰,是一种优于酚酞和甲基橙的指示剂.最后并对此类试剂与表面活性剂的相互作用作了简单探讨.