小子样条件下幂律退化模型的加速因子分析

结合长寿命、高可靠性产品加速寿命试验的特点,在失效机理不变的条件下,提出了幂律退化模型加速因子的概念。推导了加速寿命试验条件下幂律退化模型参数的极大似然估计。并利用Bayes方法,结合额定应力环境下的小子样数据和加速因子的先验分布,推导出加速因子后验分布。在此基础上,给出了小子样条件下可靠性的一、二阶矩的估计公式,进而运用矩等效方法得到可靠性的验后分布,结合实例说明了方法的有效性。     

组织内收入偏好分布与主体激励——模型构建和模拟

组织成员的收入偏好影响其工作积极性，并最终作用于组织绩效。以往的相关研究主要把组织成员看作独立的主体进行分析，忽略了其他相关主体的收入偏好可能具有的影响。在特定组织中，各成员的收入偏好存在差异，因而在组织层面上表现出一定的分布特征，可以用均值、标准差、偏度和峰度等参数进行描述。本文通过建立一个多主体模型来分析组织内成员收入偏好的分布是如何影响特定主体的努力水平，进而影响亚组织（部门、项目团队等）的绩效。研究表明，组织内成员收入偏好的均值和标准差对其努力水平的影响较为显著，说明组织在招聘过程中要注意控制潜在员工收入偏好水平的高低和离散程度。     

Adaptive control of system with hysteresis using neural networks

1.INTRODUCTIONThe piezoelectric actuators are well suited for micro-position devices in precision engineering because oftheir fast response,nanometer resolution and biggerdriving force[1].However,hysteresis inherent topiezoelectric actuator severely li mits system’s perfor-mance such as giving rise to undesirable accuracy oroscillations,even leading to instability.Hysteresischaracteristics are generally nondifferentiable andusually unknown.It is a difficult task to mitigate itsharmful ef…     

Research on system-of-systems combat simulation model formal specification and representation

1. INTRODUCTION Weapon equipments acquisition and demonstration has become more and more prominent in the informationalized war conditions while operational effectiveness evaluation is its core part. The compl- exity and uncertainty of weapon systems operational effectiveness evaluation make traditional analysis methods or expert evaluation methods less effective to solve problems. Simulation based operational effe- ctiveness evaluation is an efficient solution. The increased complexity o…     

Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.     

Using the Viable Systems Model to Structure a System Dynamics Mapping and Modeling Project for the Australian Taxation Office

This paper is a case study of a major System Dynamics (SD) intervention in policy design in the Australian Taxation Office. The project, which lasted two years, tested a number of hypotheses regarding the application of Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Model (VSM) to the structure and process of the project. The paper reports that the success of the VSM within the ATO was qualified by political changes in the external environment.     

砂土液化判别最优BP神经网络模型

利用BP网络模型在解决砂土液化评价这类非线性问题方面的优势,选取不同的参数组合,建立不同的砂土液化判别BP神经网络模型,并根据现场实测资料进行比较分析.结果表明,以地震烈度、标准贯入点深度、地下水位深度、标贯击数、不均匀系数及地震剪应力比作为输入节点的砂土液化判别BP神经网络模型最为合理.     

基于运动生物力学的三维人体运动模型

针对三维虚拟仿真中人体模型标准定义不统一的问题,从运动生物力学的角度出发,提出了层次化建立人体运动模型的方法。首先将人体运动中的关节进行了分类,然后描述了一种通用的人体模型并定义了其数据结构。对手、足、脊柱等具有特殊运动特性的器官进行了单独分析和定义。这一人体模型表示方法在具有生物力学特性的人体运动表示中有较好的通用性。     

一个支持战争分析仿真实验的策略模型

针对战争分析仿真实验运行控制过程中的新要求,在介绍战争分析仿真引擎的基础上,提出一种支持战争分析仿真实验的仿真运行机制模型,即集成策略-运行策略-应用策略模型,并给出了相关的关键算法,使得能够实现模型集成和驱动机制、可控实验、单方评估/对抗仿真等多种仿真需求,完成对战争分析的虚拟实验。     

深基坑降水与地面沉降变形三维耦合数值模拟

以比奥固结理论为基础，考虑土体的非线性特征及土的渗透性随应力状态的动态变化，将地下水渗流场和土体应力场进行耦合，建立了深基坑降水与地面沉降变形的水土全耦合三维数学模型，并采用三维有限元数值分析方法，以上海市环球金融中心深基坑降水为例，模拟预测了基坑中心水位降至标高-23．4m时基坑周围地下水渗流场与地面沉降变形场的分布特征．结果表明，该模型稳定性好，收敛速度快，能模拟复杂三维地质体和整个基坑降水工程的结构。