基于季节调整和BP神经网络的月度负荷预测

月度电力负荷序列中离群值及节假日因素会影响月度负荷预测的准确性.为此,提出了基于季节调整方法和BP神经网络的月度电力负荷组合预测模型.首先,利用季节调整方法对原始负荷序列进行预处理,消除离群值和春节假日的影响;然后用BP神经网络对回归残差序列建模预测得到预测结果或对季节调整后序列和季节成分序列分别建模预测,并对分量预测结果重构后得到最终预测结果的方法.通过实例对预测效果进行检验,结果表明提出的预测方法的预测表现要优于BP神经网络,SARIMA,支持向量机等模型,可以获得更高的预测精度.     

页岩气水平井地质信息解析与三维构造建模

页岩气开发具有开发评价期短,评价井少（直井）的特点,直井密度低增加了储层精细描述和地质建模的技术难度。因此,建立研究区地层的岩性、物性和电性特征的定量识别标准,利用该标准对水平井水平段开展精细小层划分,并对实际钻遇地层厚度进行校正,将水平井水平段等效为多口平面分布的直井。在此基础上,以水平井段解析的各小层数据资料作为控制点,建立研究区精细构造模型。水平井多点地质信息解析,将水平段等效为多口评价井获取相关地质参数资料,可有效地弥补评价井资料少的不足。     

大陆边缘三角洲盆地油气成藏特征类比研究

大陆边缘三角洲盆地一直是油气最为富集的地区之一,世界上很多大的油气区均是分布在三角洲盆地,如西非尼日尔三角洲盆地,东非鲁伍玛盆地三角洲和印尼库泰盆地马哈坎三角洲等。通过对不同类型大陆边缘三角洲盆地油气地质条件的差异性对比研究,明确在不同构造演化阶段发育的三角洲盆地的盆地结构、内部构造样式、烃源岩特征及成藏模式均存在明显差异。其中,漂移期发育的尼日尔三角洲和鲁伍玛盆地三角洲重力滑脱推覆构造体系发育。在裂陷期拗陷阶段发育的库泰盆地马哈坎三角洲重力滑脱推覆构造体系不发育。马哈坎三角洲和尼日尔三角洲盆地的主力烃源岩均来自三角洲体系,以生油为主,具有自生自储,近源成藏的特点。东非鲁伍玛盆地烃源岩为下侏罗统海湾环境海相烃源岩,主要生裂解气,具有阶梯式长距离运移,远源成藏的特点。     

基于集对分析的城市供水管网漏损预测及降漏研究

为了降低管网漏损水平,保障城市供水安全性和可靠性,以云南省某城市典型供水片区作为研究对象,运用集对分析漏损预测模型（SPA LF）,从供水管网漏点数和漏点率两个方面分析了不同管材漏损的实际情况,预测未来不同管材的漏损趋势。该研究能够提高供水企业主动检漏水平与供水安全可靠性,降低管网漏损率与供水成本。     

珍珠岩矿床地质背景研究进展

从矿床地质特征、成矿时代、岩石地球化学、大地构造背景、火山喷发模式及岩浆来源、水的赋存形式及来源、水化蚀变、矿床成因等方面对世界珍珠岩地质背景进行了综述.结果表明珍珠岩的形成过程和成矿物化条件方面尚有许多具体问题未进行合理的解释,限制了珍珠岩成岩-成矿理论和找矿实践的深入研究.最后,对今后珍珠岩研究中存在问题和发展趋势给出了具体建议.     

基于网络搜索的票房预测模型——来自中国电影市场的证据

建立了一个将网络搜索与电影票房联系起来的模型, 考察了影片上映前后消费者网络搜索的动态变化及其在电影票房预测中的作用. 文章就中国电影产业对该模型进行了实证检验. 结果显示, 影片网络搜索量以及增长趋势都能预测该影片的首映周票房. 对于后续周票房, 动态联立方程模型的估计结果表明, 网络搜索既是电影票房的先行信号, 也是电影票房的后向结果. 样本外分析表明, 整合了网络搜索的模型能够提高预测的准确性.     

一种适用于牧区的新型太阳能系统

我国是世界上地质灾害最严重的国家之一,对人民群众的生命财产安全构成了极大的威胁.湖南省又是我国地质灾害较严重的省份之一,且水系发育,河湖地地质灾害较多.本文以澧县为例,介绍了河湖地区管涌、岸崩的发育特征、分布规律及形成因素等,并提出了相应的防治措施,最后对河湖地质灾害进行了易发性分区,取得了较好的实际效果.结果表明:文中提出的方法对河湖地区的地质灾害防治具有一定的实际指导意义.     

A Simple Linear Regression Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Rates

Observing that a sequence of negative logarithms of 1‐year survival probabilities displays a linear relationship with the sequence of corresponding terms with a time lag of a certain number of years, we propose a simple linear regression to model and forecast mortality rates. Our model assuming the linearity between two mortality sequences with a time lag each other does not need to formulate the time trends of mortality rates across ages for mortality prediction. Moreover, the parameters of our model for a given age depend on the mortality rates for that age only. Therefore, whether the span of the study ages with the age included is widened or shortened will not affect the results of mortality fitting and forecasting for that age. In the empirical testing, the regression results using the mortality data for the UK, USA and Japan show a satisfactory goodness of fit, which convinces us of the appropriateness of the linear assumption. Empirical illustrations further show that our model's performances of fitting and forecasting mortality rates are quite satisfactory compared with the existing well‐known mortality models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

Comparison of Near Neighbour and Neural Network in Travel Forecasting

In this paper we confirm the existence of nonlinear dynamics in a time series of airport arrivals. We subsequently propose alternative non‐parametric forecasting techniques to be used in a travel forecasting problem, emphasizing the difference between the reconstruction and learning approach. We compare the results achieved in point prediction versus sign prediction. The reconstruction approach offers better results in sign prediction and the learning approach in point prediction. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.