高校图书馆大规模馆藏精准迁移模式探讨--以华北电力大学图书馆为例

书库藏书迁移的运作主要在于精心准备和周密筹划。详细介绍了华北电力大学图书馆利用汇文文献信息服务系统的强大分析功能并结合Excel软件的使用技巧,实现大规模馆藏迁移精准排架工作的经验。     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

阿罗不可能性定理和社会选择的无矛盾性问题

2017年2月21日,国际著名数理经济学家、1972年度诺贝尔(Nobel)经济学奖获得者阿罗(K.J.Arrow)于美国辞世。谨作此文,以纪念他在社会选择理论,特别是其中将有关数学应用于研究经济学领域发现的"阿罗不可能性定理"作出的重大贡献。     

基于SHPB试验的高速铁路CRTSⅡ型CA砂浆动态性能

采用分离式霍普金森压杆(Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar,SHPB)试验研究了高速铁路CRTS II型水泥乳化沥青砂浆(CA砂浆)的动态力学性能,并建立了CRTS II型CA砂浆的动态本构关系模型.结果表明:随着应变率的增大,CRTS II型CA砂浆峰值强度逐渐增加,但增加速率随应变率的增大而减小,当应变率从44.17增加至54.79 s-1和从54.79增加至108.47 s-1时,峰值强度分别增加了初始峰值强度的52.28%和7.5%,弹性模量随应变率的变化规律性较差;应变率越大,破坏时的贯通裂纹越多,碎裂程度越大;CRTS II型CA砂浆的比能量吸收随着应变率的增大而增大.所建立的动态本构模型拟合曲线与试验曲线具有较好的一致性.     

二阶p-Laplacian算子的奇异边值问题多解的存在性

应用锥拉伸和锥压缩不动点理论讨论了有关p-Laplacian算子的二阶微分方程奇异边值问题多个正解的存在性。     

抛物星形映射的一个子族与Roper-Suffridge算子

首先,从几何的视角引入了一类抛物星形映射子族.其次,给出欧氏空间单位球上该映射族与α次强β型螺形映射族之间的关系,同时证明了Roper-Suffridge算子在单位球上保持该类映射族的性质.作为推论,可以得到一些熟知的结果.     

基于Choquet积分的多属性正态分布区间数决策方法

在Choquet积分的基础上,提出了正态分布区间数的关联有序平均（NDINCOA）算子。该算子不仅考虑了属性的重要性,而且能够反映出属性的相互关系。值得指出的是存在的一些正态分布区间数平均算子都是该算子的特例。最后举例说明了该算子在不确定多属性决策中的应用,结果表明该方法是可行的。     

胰岛素信号通路PI3K／Akt对海马神经元β-淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1mRNA水平的影晌

目的通过胰岛素和磷脂酰肌醇-3激酶（P13K）抑制剂渥曼青霉素（wortmannin）对P13K／丝氨酸苏氨酸蛋白激酶（P13K／Akt）信号通路的激活和抑制作用,观察P13K／Akt信号通路对海马神经元β-淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1（BACEl）mRNA水平表达的影响。方法20只sD大鼠随机分为空白对照组、假手术组、胰岛素组和渥曼青霉素组,海马立体定向注射胰岛素和P13K抑制剂渥曼青霉素。逆转录一聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）检测P13K／Akt信号传导下游蛋白Akt以及BACEImRNA水平。结果注射胰岛素的海马P13K信号通路下游信号分子：AktmRNA表达上调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．047,P=0．002）,而BACElmRNA表达下调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．004,P=0．01）。渥曼青霉素组的P13K下游信号分子AktmRNA表达明显被抑制（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．002,P=0．039）,同时BACEImRNA的表达较对照组上调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．039,P=0．018）。结论胰岛素信号通路P13K／AM可以调节BACEl的转录水平参与阿尔茨海默病的发病机制。     

基于人眼状态识别的驾驶员疲劳检测方法研究

提出一种基于眼睛状态识别的驾驶员疲劳状态检测的方法。首先通过建立肤色模型分割出人脸区域,再利用搜索连通域的方法实现眼睛区域的定位;然后计算出眼睛区域的垂直积分投影曲线,提取并比较曲线的特征参数,从而识别眼睛的状态;最后以眼睛闭合时间比率为测量标准实现对驾驶员疲劳程度的检测。实验表明,该方法简单、有效、实时性较好,疲劳检测的正确率较高。