BP算法求解多元线性回归模型初探

提出求解多元线性回归模型系数的BP算法，给出该算法的数学描述、推导过程和计算机编程步骤，并结合实例说明。     

供应链中二级分销网络优化设计的随机规划模型

给出供应链中二级分销网络优化设计的机会约束规划模型。模型中将各个分销中心的需求量和各工厂的生产能力设为随机参数，并进一步讨论如何将模型中的机会约束转化为确定性等价类问题。     

析《今日说法》的媒体品牌建构

在我国的法制类节目里,《今日说法》无论从受众的广泛性还是社会的影响力来说,无疑都是名列前茅的媒体品牌节目。笔者用品牌理论中的电通蜂窝模型理论来对《今日说法》进行品牌建构分析,以给其他媒体进行品牌建构一些启发。     

To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts

This paper addresses issues such as: Does it always pay to combine individual forecasts of a variable? Should one combine an unbiased forecast with one that is heavily biased? Should one use optimal weights as suggested by Bates and Granger over twenty years ago? A simple model which accounts for the main features of individual forecasts is put forward. Bayesian analysis of the model using noninformative and informative prior probability densities is provided which extends and generalizes results obtained by Winkler (1981) and compared with non-Bayesian methods of combining forecasts relying explicitly on a statistical model for the individual forecasts. It is shown that in some instances it is sensible to use a simple average of individual forecasts instead of using Bates and Granger type weights. Finally, model uncertainty is considered and the issue of combining different models for individual forecasts is addressed.     

ODA多媒体文献模型及分析

本文介绍多媒体文献模型ＯＤＡ的逻辑结构和布局结构以及它们的关系，分析了ＯＤＡ模型的特点。     

张家川县牧业生产经济动态的前景预测

从张家川四十六年的畜牧业生产经济数据中,定性地提出了牧业生产的四个阶段,即低速波动段、干扰徘徊段、高速发展段、协调稳定段。并对这几个阶段建立了一系列的动态分析数学模型,借此模型定量地分析和预测了该县牧业生产的状况及前景,并提出了合理的资源利用强度,为今后张家川县牧业生产提供了科学的决策依据。     

高T_c超导的RVB态机制及通道模型

本文介绍超导电性的Anderson RVB态机制和通道模型机制,并利用通道模型机制计算了YBa_2Cu_3O_(7-δ)超导体的临界转变温度T。     

财产保险公司负债风险资本金的确定

讨论如何借助回归模型预测法与VaR方法解决预期损失和非预期损失负债风险资本金的确定问题，且依据中国某财产保险公司某一长尾业务的数据对该方法的可行性进行实证分析。     

Reflection-in-Action: Modeling a specific organization through the Viable Systems Model

The purpose of this project is to explore a way for systems practitioners to learn the skills necessary to employ a particular systems model in practice. Reflection-in-Action is one way to embark on a double-loop learning cycle and, thus, develop the tacit skills and inarticulate knowledge needed to employ a particular systems model. Through Reflection-in-Action, a Viable Systems Model (VSM) of the San Francisco Zoo was constructed. This project involved three phases of research; for each, a VSM using the data available was constructed. During each phase, the questioning of current assumptions and operating norms led to changes in the direction of the research. This led to the construction of significantly different VSMs for each phase.     

Modelling non-normal first-order autoregressive time series

We shall first review some non-normal stationary first-order autoregressive models. The models are constructed with a given marginal distribution (logistic, hyperbolic secant, exponential, Laplace, or gamma) and the requirement that the bivariate joint distribution of the generated process must be sufficiently simple so that the parameter estimation and forecasting problems of the models can be addressed. A model-building approach that consists of model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting is then discussed for this class of models.