Prediction in context: On the comparative epistemic merit of predictive success

The considerations set out in the paper are intended to suggest that in practical contexts predictive power does not play the outstanding roles sometimes accredited to it in an epistemic framework. Rather, predictive power is part of a network of other merits and achievements. Predictive power needs to be judged differently according to the specific conditions that apply. First, predictions need to be part of an explanatory framework if they are supposed to guide actions reliably. Second, in scientific expertise, the demand for accurate predictions is replaced with the objective of specifying a robust corridor of estimates. Finally, it is highly uncertain to predict the success of research projects. The overall purpose of the paper is to enlarge the debate about predictions by addressing specifically the roles of predictions in application-oriented research.     

基于HJ-1B卫星的作物秸秆提取及其焚烧火点判定模式

作物秸秆焚烧产生的气体和颗粒物严重污染大气环境,威胁人类健康,给交通带安全带来隐患,利用遥感技术优势监管秸秆焚烧火点具有重要的现实意义.文中基于HJ-1B卫星CCD多光谱遥感数据和IRS热红外遥感数据,以中国江苏中东部为研究区,开展作物秸秆提取及其焚烧火点判定的一体化研究.根据秸秆的光谱特征研究建立了秸秆乘积指数(SMI),结合其纹理信息可从HJ-1BCCD遥感图像上快速有效的提取出秸秆分布,继之结合修正后的火点探测算法可对HJ-1BIRS遥感数据进行火点提取.在秸秆分布和火点探测结果矢量化的基础上,通过GIS技术进行火点叠置分析,可有效地判定作物秸秆火点分布,同时结合实地调研及与MODIS火点产品比对分析验证评价了本研究方法的可行性和有效性.     

外源性H2S通过调节β-位淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1表达对PC12细胞APP／Aβ代谢的影响

目的观察外源性硫化氢对嗜铬细胞瘤细胞β-位淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1（BACE1）的调节作用,进而探讨其对淀粉样前体蛋白／β-位淀粉样蛋白代谢途径的影响。方法用硫氢化钠作外源性H2s供体,实验设空白对照组、NaHs50μmol／L组、NaHS100μmol／L组和NariS200μmol／L组,按分组浓度处理PC12细胞24h后,RT-PCR和Western blot法检测细胞内BACE1 mRNA及蛋白表达,并用Western blot法继而检测APP代谢过程中关键蛋白APP、C99、C83表达变化,EusA法检测细胞培养液中AB40和AB42水平。结果NaHS在实验浓度范围内从基因与蛋白两个水平上呈剂量依赖性下调BACE1表达,并下调C99、Ap40和Ap42蛋白表达,上调C83蛋白,各NaHS组分别与对照组比较,差别均有统计学意义（P〈0．05）,而对APP蛋白表达没有影响,各组间比较差别无显著性（P〉0．05）。结论外源性H2s具有通过调节PC12细胞BACE1表达下调APP／Aβ代谢的作用。     

胰岛素信号通路PI3K／Akt对海马神经元β-淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1mRNA水平的影晌

目的通过胰岛素和磷脂酰肌醇-3激酶（P13K）抑制剂渥曼青霉素（wortmannin）对P13K／丝氨酸苏氨酸蛋白激酶（P13K／Akt）信号通路的激活和抑制作用,观察P13K／Akt信号通路对海马神经元β-淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1（BACEl）mRNA水平表达的影响。方法20只sD大鼠随机分为空白对照组、假手术组、胰岛素组和渥曼青霉素组,海马立体定向注射胰岛素和P13K抑制剂渥曼青霉素。逆转录一聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）检测P13K／Akt信号传导下游蛋白Akt以及BACEImRNA水平。结果注射胰岛素的海马P13K信号通路下游信号分子：AktmRNA表达上调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．047,P=0．002）,而BACElmRNA表达下调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．004,P=0．01）。渥曼青霉素组的P13K下游信号分子AktmRNA表达明显被抑制（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．002,P=0．039）,同时BACEImRNA的表达较对照组上调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．039,P=0．018）。结论胰岛素信号通路P13K／AM可以调节BACEl的转录水平参与阿尔茨海默病的发病机制。     

Forecasting Ability of a Periodic Component Extracted from Large‐Cap Index Time Series

We develop a method to extract periodic variations in a time series that are hidden in large non‐periodic and stochastic variations. This method relies on folding the time series many times and allows direct visualization of a hidden periodic component without resorting to any fitting procedure. Applying this method to several large‐cap stock time series in Europe, Japan and the USA yields a component with periodicity of 1 year. Out‐of‐sample tests on these large‐cap time series indicate that this periodic component is able to forecast long‐term (decade) behavior for large‐cap time series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

闭环回收供应链中牛鞭效应量化分析

环保和资源的问题关系到整个社会和环境,现代制造越来越注重资源的可持续化应用。将牛鞭效应的量化与控制引入闭环供应链的研究中,有效测量了有回收的供应链中的牛鞭效应。结合传统制造业的制造及分销渠道,运用运筹学及数学理论建立了一个由生产者、销售者及回收渠道组成的供应链模型,并进行数值实验计算和分析。结果表明:牛鞭效应仍存在于具有回收途径的供应链中,减少回收产品直接销售并重新加工能够降低整体供应链的牛鞭效应。     

Apolipoprotein M affecting lipid metabolism or just catching a ride with lipoproteins in the circulation?

Apolipoprotein M (apoM) is a novel apolipoprotein found mainly in high-density lipoproteins (HDL). Its function is yet to be defined. ApoM (25 kDa) has a typical lipocalin ?-barrel fold and a hydrophobic pocket. Retinoids bind apoM but with low affinity and may not be the natural ligands. ApoM retains its signal peptide, which serves as a hydrophobic anchor to the lipoproteins. This prevents apoM from being lost in the urine. Approximately 5% of HDL carries an apoM molecule. ApoM in plasma (1 μM) correlates strongly with both low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and HDL cholesterol, suggesting a link to cholesterol metabolism. However, in casecontrol studies, apoM levels in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and controls were similar, suggesting apoM levels not to affect the risk for CHD in humans. Experiments in transgenic mice suggested apoM to have antiatherogenic properties; possible mechanisms include increased formation of pre-? HDL, enhanced cholesterol mobilization from foam cells, and increased antioxidant properties. Received 28 November 2008; received after revision 15 December 2008; accepted 16 December 2008     

Basal autophagy is involved in the degradation of the ERAD component EDEM1

Little is known about the fate of machinery proteins of the protein quality control and endoplasmic reticulum(ER)-associated degradation (ERAD). We investigated the degradation of the ERAD component EDEM1, which directs overexpressed misfolded glycoproteins to degradation. Endogenous EDEM1 was studied since EDEM1 overexpression not only resulted in inappropriate occurrence throughout the ER but also caused cytotoxic effects. Proteasome inhibitors had no effect on the clearance of endogenous EDEM1 in non-starved cells. However, EDEM1 could be detected by immunocytochemistry in autophagosomes and biochemically in LC3 immuno-purified autophagosomes. Furthermore, influencing the lysosome-autophagy pathway by vinblastine or pepstatin A/E64d and inhibiting autophagosome formation by 3-methyladenine or ATGs short interfering RNA knockdown stabilized EDEM1. Autophagic degradation involved removal of cytosolic Triton X-100-insoluble deglycosylated EDEM1, but not of EDEM1-containing ER cisternae. Our studies demonstrate that endogenous EDEM1 in cells not stressed by the expression of a transgenic misfolded protein reaches the cytosol and is degraded by basal autophagy. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Received 15 January 2009; received after revision 16 February 2009; accepted 17 February 2009 V. Le Fourn, K. Gaplovska-Kysela: These authors equally contributed to this work.     

WDR34 is a novel TAK1-associated suppressor of the IL-1R/TLR3/TLR4-induced NF-κB activation pathway

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) act as sensors of microbial components and elicit innate immune responses. All TLR signaling pathways activate the nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-κB), which controls the expression of inflammatory cytokine genes. Transforming growth factor-β-activated kinase 1 (TAK1) is a serine/threonine protein kinase that is critically involved in the activation of NF-κB by tumor necrosis factor (TNFα), interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and TLR ligands. In this study, we identified a novel protein, WD40 domain repeat protein 34 (WDR34) as a TAK1-interacting protein in yeast two-hybrid screens. WDR34 interacted with TAK1, TAK1-binding protein 2 (TAB2), TAK1-binding protein 3 (TAB3) and tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6 (TRAF6) in overexpression and under physiological conditions. Overexpression of WDR34 inhibited IL-1β-, polyI:C- and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced but not TNFα-induced NF-κB activation, whereas knockdown of WDR34 by a RNA-interference construct potentiated NF-κB activation by these ligands. Our findings suggest that WDR34 is a TAK1-associated inhibitor of the IL-1R/TLR3/TLR4-induced NF-κB activation pathway. D. Gao and R. Wang contributed equally to this work.     

天宫一号基于控制力矩陀螺的智能多模自适应姿态控制系统设计与验证

天宫一号是目前我国在轨运行的体积最大、重量最重的载人航天器.它具有变构型、变参数的特性,采用控制力矩陀螺系统和喷气推进系统实现高精度、高稳定度姿态控制.本文通过对天宫一号控制对象参数缓变和跳变相结合特点的分析,规划了高可靠灵活的控制策略,设计了智能多模自适应姿态控制系统.利用智能控制中规则集设定多模自适应控制的指标切换函数分配,利用多模自适应控制算法建立多模型控制器实现不同控制对象,不同控制任务的姿态控制.天宫一号通过地面测试和物理仿真试验,最后发射在轨运行,与神舟八号、神舟九号、神舟十号载人飞船圆满完成交会对接任务,充分验证了姿态控制系统设计的正确性和有效性.该设计方法在解决大型航天器变构型、变参数组合体姿态控制方面有突出优点,在未来的载人航天领域空间站建设具有应用前景.