Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

闸河区周边重合断裂方位分布特征及其导水趋势分析

本文应用了遥感这一先进工具,在地壳表层现实资料及地球遥感影象特征基础上,发展了遥感地质灾害方面研究新理论——重合断裂方位破裂理论,来为防治水害直接提供导水断裂趋势分布特征.     

Titius—Bode定则的发展,天体量子论和泛量子理论

太阳系的Titius-Bode定则可以发展为r_n=an~2,令α_1=0.042,n=3,4,5,6是类地行星;令α_2=1.2,n=2,3,4,5,6是类木行星。此时海王星、冥王星都是规则的,且适用于大多数卫星。由此可以完全类比于玻尔原子模型,并得出太阳系量子常数H=(αGM_⊙)~(1/2)和天体薛定谔方程。这样距离规则是行星演化时统计性的结果,宇宙中应普遍存在波粒二象性和形式相似而量子常数各不相同的泛量子理论。     

防止PWM逆变器直通短路的原理及应用

本文提出了通过上下桥臂开关电流互访与联锁、故障断诊、故障处理与记忆等措施,消除PWM逆变器上下桥臂同时直通短路的新原理,并提供了实验验证的结果.     

立井强化冻结施工理论分析

本文以谢桥主井为例,从冻结壁强度、变形、工作面底鼓和超前位移及冻胀压力等几方面.分析了深厚表土立井强化冻结施工对防止冻结管断裂和外层井壁破坏的机理.给出了强化冻结施工适用条件.并提出了按井帮温度进行强化冻结设计的方法.     

三种饲料添加剂对幼兔增重及饲料转化率的对比试验

对新球虫灵,喹乙醇,免健宝Ⅰ号,Ⅱ号配套复合饲料添加剂进行的幼兔饲养对比试验结果表明:以免健宝Ⅰ、Ⅱ号配套复合饲料添加剂联合效果为最佳,其它依次为单用兔健宝Ⅱ号、兔健宝Ⅰ号、喹乙醇,新球虫灵。而且兔健宝Ⅰ、Ⅱ号配套复合饲料添加剂有易混匀,简化配合饲料工序、节省饲料及增重快等优点。     

有限水深慢船理论及波阻计算

本文推广E.Baba的无限水深慢船理论,建立了有限水深慢船理论.基于低速与量级假定,将总速度势Φ分为合模势(?)_r和波动势(?),分别给出了各自的表达式,进而推导了有限水深兴波的波高、波阻公式.编制了波阻计算程序,并以半浸圆球为例进行验算,计算了Series 60船型在8种水深时的波阻.理论分析和数值计算表明:当水深趋于无穷时,本理论与Baba理论是一致的.     

DNA和SDS介导钯卟啉室温磷光及磷光激发光谱分裂

利用室温磷光研究了钯卟啉 (Pd- TAPP)与 ct DNA及 SDS的相互作用特征。 SDS通过静电缔合及尾链保护增强 Pd- TAPP磷光强度 ;Pd- TAPP通过静电和疏水相互作用结合于 DNA的沟槽区 ,缔合常数为 4.37× 10 5L· m ol- 1 (bp)。平均一个钯卟啉分子与 4～ 5个核酸碱基对相互作用时 ,核酸表面的钯卟啉分子达到饱和 ;然后卟啉分子开始聚集组装 ,激子相互作用导致激发光谱分裂 ,聚集缔合常数为 0 .5× 10 5L· mol- 1 。     

PADE’型逼近的收敛性

文章给出了Ｐａｄｅ型逼近积分形式的误差公式，并用该公式证明了Ｐａｄｅ型逼近的两个收敛定理．     

过量降水对重要建筑物的影响

以变截面筒体高层建筑结构为例，讨论了过量降水对重要建筑物的影响．计算结果表明，过量降水引起的非均匀地基变形对高层建筑结构的顶端侧移、层间侧移、上部结构的翘曲位移、地基和基础结构底部应力的影响是非常显著的．