生产运作管理在物流配送优化中的应用

本文运用生产运作管理中的优化技术,以成品油物流配送流程为例,系统的介绍了优化的模型和方法。     

基于GM(1,1)模型的天虹公司销售额预测

本文在传统数据分析方法基础上,运用GM(1,1)模型对天虹公司1999-2008年的销售额进行分析,预测了该公司未来五年销售额变化情况。数值实验结果表明灰色理论具有较高的预测精度。     

Long-term forecasting with innovation diffusion models: The impact of replacement purchases

The model presented in this paper integrates two distinct components of the demand for durable goods: adoptions and replacements. The adoption of a new product is modeled as an innovation diffusion process, using price and population as exogenous variables. Adopters are expected to eventually replace their old units of the product, with a probability which depends on the age of the owned unit, and other random factors such as overload, style-changes etc. It is shovn that the integration of adoption and replacement demand components in our model yields quality sales forecasts, not only under conditions where detailed data on replacement sales is available, but also when the forecaster's access is limited to total sales data and educated guesses on certain elements of the replacement process.     

统计工作如何适应企业的转轨变型

企业转轨变型后,在激烈的竞争市场中,怎样才能立于不败之地?这是企业面临的严肃问题。本文阐述企业统计工作的改革问题,指出:销售是企业的龙头,必须从抓基础工作入手,在营销系统中,对外以市场调查、市场细分为主要目标,搜集、整理分析各种资料,掌握竞争对手的信息;对内以资金利润率为总目标,层层分解落实,建立起营销系统的统计指标体系,以求最佳经济效益。这就是在新形势下,统计工作要积极开拓服务领域,提高对于经营系统的反映和监督作用。     

New product forecasting

Forecasting new-product performance has been called ‘one of the most difficult and critical management tasks’. It has attracted considerable attention because of the magnitude of the resources devoted to product development and because of the sizeable risks involved in making the go–no-go decisions. In comparison with forecasting sales for established products, there is no sales history, or more generally, the company has no product specific experience related to consumer acceptance, trade support and competitive reactions. This article first presents a review of new product forecasting techniques with an emphasis given to the more recent developments in forecasting models. Then, forecasting procedures are assessed by discussing their benefits and their costs. The third part of the article discusses trends in new product forecasting.     

基于数据仓库的销售分析系统的设计和实现

数据仓库是信息处理领域近几年出现的面向分析和决策的新技术 .介绍了数据仓库中数据模型的特点和设计方法 ,并通过一个销售分析系统的实例 ,详细阐述了数据仓库的数据建模、数据抽取和更新、多维数据模型的实现、数据呈现 4个过程 ,给出了一种基于数据仓库技术的决策分析系统的设计和实现方法     

印刷机制造行业CRM危机与契机并存

随着社会的高速发展,印刷机制造行业面临着越来越多的挑战。过去是一种＂以产品为中心＂的企业管理思想成为主导。而今,我们不难发现所有的挑战都围绕一个中心,那就是＂客户＂。在产品过剩、竞争对手林立的今天,印机制造企业必须把客户牢牢的抓在手里,并提高客户的满意度与忠诚度,提升客户的价值和利润,才能在市场竞争中立于不败之地。至此,客户的地位被提高到前所未有的高度,而＂以客户为中心＂的管理理念也随之应用而生。     

唐代的促销——以长安餐饮业为例

唐都长安餐饮行业繁荣,在地域上也打破了坊市分离的规定。为了招揽生意,促销是其常见的经营方式。研究唐人的的促销活动,不仅对于重现古人的生活画面有着十分重要的意义,从中发现古人的经营理念对现代的经济活动也有一定的指导意义。而考察具体的促销形式,也可以衡量古代社会商品经济的发展程度。     

The use of non-time series information in sales forecasting: A case study

The contribution of product and industry knowledge to the accuracy of sales forecasting was investigated by examining the company forecasts of a leading manufacturer and marketer of consumable products. The company forecasts of 18 products produced by a meeting of marketing, sales, and production personnel were compared with those generated by the same company personnel when denied specific product knowledge and with the forecasts of selected judgemental and statistical time series methods. Results indicated that product knowledge contributed significantly to forecast accuracy and that the forecast accuracy of company personnel who possessed industry forecasting knowledge (but not product knowledge) was not significantly different from the time series based methods. Furthermore, the company forecasts were more accurate than averages of the judgemental and statistical time series forecasts. These results point to the importance of specific product information to forecast accuracy and accordingly call into question the continuing strong emphasis on improving extrapolation techniques without consideration of the inclusion of non-time series knowledge.     

基于电商平台的定价顺序和销售模式选择

针对由一个多渠道零售商和一个平台商组成的供应链,以及电商平台的代理和转售两种销售模式,研究供应链成员在转售模式下的最优定价顺序,以及销售模式对供应链成员的影响.研究表明:转售模式下,供应链成员都在自己先制定零售价格时获得最高收益,在对方先制定零售价格时获得最低收益;多渠道零售商先制定零售价格时,所有零售价格都位于最低水...