Lorenz系统混沌解序列可预报性的统计检验

利用Lorenz简化热对流模式产生了吸引子区域内的混沌解序列，对截取的序列进行了乎稳性和正态性检验．按照3种情形分别选取样本，并应用统计预报中的ARMA模型、多元线性回归模型、多项式回归模型和均值生成函数模型等作出项报。比较分析表明：所选取方程组产生的混池解序列，呈现非周期、非乎稳、非正态特性等极不规则的分布，导致几种统计模型对于两个不稳定平衡状态间的不确定的突变情形基本失去了预报能力，系统行为几乎无法预测，其根本原因在于系统的混沌特性。但在某一不稳定平衡状态内，序列段呈现振幅不断放大的准周期振荡，具有一定的规律性，几种统计模型预报的效果较好，说明在应用统计方法进行预报的前提下，系统行为存在着局部时段的有限的可预报性。     

低渗透油藏不稳定渗流规律的研究

用无因次分析法对低渗透岩心的实验数据进行了分析 ,得出新的渗流规律。具体表述为 :低于亚临界雷诺数 (Rem=8.5× 10 -5)为非达西渗流 ,其运动方程为v =c(dp/dl) 3 ;高于亚临界雷诺数为达西渗流。从微观角度出发 ,应用边界层理论进一步证实了这一渗流规律。运用新的运动方程 ,建立了低渗透油藏不稳定渗流的数学模型。根据拉氏变换和Stehfest数值反演 ,求得了有限半径井的实空间近似解 ,并应用数值分析方法验证了近似解析方法的可行性。对低渗透油藏的压力动态特征以及边界对压力动态影响的分析结果表明 ,低渗透油层试井曲线的压力动态特征为 :短时曲线与达西渗流模型相似 ,而长时曲线则受到非达西渗流的影响。对于恒压边界油藏 ,压力趋于稳定的时间比达西渗流要迟一些 ;在无限大地层中 ,其导数曲线是一簇平行的倾斜线。对于同一区域低渗透油层试井曲线 ,其导数曲线出现“阶跃”的时间较迟的井区 ,流动系数比较好 ;反之则较差     

水力压裂中多裂缝间相互干扰力学分析

将复变函数理论与位错理论相结合 ,在考虑了裂缝表面有流体压力作用且裂缝间存在相互干扰的情况下 ,建立了无限大介质中裂尖应力强度因子的数学模型 ,利用该模型可对水力压裂中多裂缝间的相互干扰进行力学分析。假设裂缝沿着垂直于局部最大周向拉应力方向扩展 ,应用数值方法对所建立的数学模型求解 ,得到裂尖的应力强度因子及转角。数值计算结果表明 ,裂缝间存在相互干扰时所产生的剪切应力强度因子远远小于法向应力强度因子。当两个裂缝尖端垂向距离为零时 ,法向应力强度因子达到最大值。两个裂缝尖端没交叠之前裂缝基本沿着轴线扩展 ;当尖端交叠面积较小时 ,两裂尖偏离自己的轴线向避开对方的方向扩展 ;当尖端交叠面积较大时 ,两裂缝向靠拢对方的方向扩展 ,最终将贯通在一起     

课件环境下教学模型的研究

本文介绍了应用系统分析理论构建的课件环境下的教学模型。该模型通过评估法能有效地掌握学生的学习状况，从而调整教学策略。激发学生的学习热情，提高教学质量。     

湛江港海域台风浪分布特征模拟

利用物理过程考虑得较全面的第三代近岸海浪数值模式(SWAN)，模拟了湛江港海域一次台风浪过程。结果表明：台风风场直接决定了海浪的分布特征。在台风场的驱动下，风向与浪向基本上是一致的，并且波高、波长与周期的发展和传播方向与风向也是一致的；风速的大小决定了波高、波长与周期的大小。此外，海浪的分布特征受台风中心的位置和移动路径影响较大，当台风中心位于湛江港海域的不同位置时，台风浪有效波高、波长与周期的分布特征及传播方向都有着较大的差异，可以为湛江港海域台风浪的预报提供借鉴。     

Struts和JDO的Web应用

网络技术的发展促使应用系统结构由C／S结构到B／S结构的转变，因而要构建一个具有高稳定性、可扩展性、可维护性的应用系统，B／S结构的设计就极为重要．在简要介绍MVC软件设计模式和存储层设计的基础上，提出了Struts和JDO两种技术相结合的B／S开发结构，而这种B／S结构可以用于构建强壮的中小型Web应用系统．     

The Effect of Strain Rate on Tensile Properties of Cotton Yarns

The effect of strain rate on tensile properties of cotton yarns is analyzed using the standard linear solid model. The tensile curve, breaking strength and work of rupture of the yarns under different strain rate are calculated. A good correlation exists between the experiment results and theoretical anticipations.     

Optimal Dispatching of Large—scale Water Supply System

This paper deals with the use of optimal control techniques in large-scale water distribution networks. According to the network characteristics and actual state of the water supply system in China, the implicit model, which may be solved by utilizing the hierarchical optimization method,is established. In special, based on the analyses of the water supply system containing variable-speed pumps, a software tool has been developed successfully. The application of this model to the city of Shenyang (China) is compared to experiential strategy. The results of this study show that the developed model is a very promising optimization method to control the large-scale water sup-ply systems.     

Investigation on the Cause of Excessive Vibration of an Offshore Platform

0　IntroductionWiththeexploitureanddrillingforoceanre source,offshore platformsaremost prolificandprevalentintheoffshoreindustrytoday .Asthefun damentalinstallationsofdevelopmentofoceanre sources ,designingrequirementsofoffshoreplatformsarebecomingmoreandmoreimportant.Underenvironmentalloadsduetowind ,cur rent ,waveandevenseismicprotectionattack ,off shoreplatformsinevitablyvibrateduringtheirlife time .While ,foranormalconditionthisvibrationissmallandtheoccupantsontheplatformdon tsenseitatall.…     

Dynamical framework with blocking topography coordinates for atmospheric GCM and its validation

The dynamical framework with Blocking Topography Coordinates (hereafter, BTC), which is suited to handle the steep topography for the atmospheric general circulation models, is presented in this paper, together with its validation results. The integral properties of both the differential and finite-difference equations for the BTC dynamical core are: gross mass conservation, quadratic conservation for advection terms, Coriolis force does not change the kinetic energy, conservation of total available energy. The improved nonlinear iteration scheme is utilized for the time-integration. The energy conservation for BTC dynamical core is validated by using the integration results from 9-layer and 21-layer version respectively. Comparison results show that, the changes of the kinetic energy and total available potential energy during the integration are quite close for both the BTC dynamical framework and the dynamical framework of IAP 9-level and IAP 21-level AGCM, and this may suggest that the BTC dynamical core can be used for long-term integration with good computational stability. Furthermore, the BTC dynamical core has the advantage over the terrain following (sigma) coordinates in its better representation of the influence of the large-scale topography on the atmospheric general circulation. Finally, the correctness and reasonableness of the BTC dynamical core has been further proved by the numerical simulation of the topography influence on the quasi-stationary planetary wave with 21-layer version of BTC dynamical framework.