The performance of non‐linear exchange rate models: a forecasting comparison

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non‐linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non‐linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

逻辑学语境下的科学实用主义

作为实用主义的鼻祖,皮尔士首先和主要是一位逻辑学家.他的实用主义从根本上讲是一种逻辑学说,要求从逻辑学理论上对其进行解读.审视科学实用主义同逻辑学的内在的、历史的联系及其形而上的蕴含,可以更清晰地认识实用主义理论的本真意义.     

提高石油化工企业原料利用率的技术研究

坚持眼睛向内,挖潜增效,这是当前原油变重、供应量不足,生产资料涨价的客观形势下走出困境、提高企业效益的主要途径之一,本文从拓宽催化回炼油的利用途径,催化和加氢裂化互换循环油加工,优化重油原料的安排,提高轻油头的化肥效益,挤出烷基化原料,开发异丁烷的化工用途及油化结合等方面,分析通过厂际装置间的原料互供、生产优化来挖掘企业内涵,提高经济效益.     

美国初中级教育中对自然科学教师的培养及职业标准

对自然科学教师的培养及职业标准的研究是当代世界各国教育改革的焦点之一。本文试就美国对初中级教育中对自然科学教师的职业准备及其培养标准加以介绍和描述,特别是对美国七十年代以来对自然科学教育由重视到不重视再到重视的具体过程分析,以此为我国自然科学教师的培养提供借鉴作用。     

侧析我国的学术环境——对诺贝尔奖困惑的反思

诺贝尔自然科学奖是比较公正的,但政治对科学发展的影响又是现实的。我国之所以未曾问津诺贝尔自然科学奖,在很大程度上是由于政治环境影响了基础研究的学术自由和学术交流。     

上海市集成电路及机电一体化产品的比较优势研究

本文用一种“节汇成本比较”的方法,对上海市集成电路及机电一体化产品的比较优势进行调查研究,提出了上海市在这两个产品领域发展重点的建议。     

Clifford半群的平坦性刻划

半群Ｓ称为Ｃｌｉｆｏｒｄ半群,如果它是群的强半格．利用左Ｓ１系的平坦性给出了Ｃｌｉｆｏｒｄ半群的特征刻划．     

Sea water intrusion and salt water intrusion in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay

The characteristics, pattern, hydrodynamic and hydrochemical features, and the movement pattern of the salt waterfresh water interface of the sea water intrusion and the salt water intrusion, which occur in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province, are analysed. The characteristics of the two kinds of intrusion are compared as well. A three-dimensional sea water intrusion model to describe the sea water intrusion with a transitional zone 1.5–6.0 km wide in the phreatic aquifer and a solute transport model describing the behavior of cations exchange in the process of sea water intrusion are established.     

盐胁迫下Na^＋,K^＋,Cl^—对碱蓬和玉米离子的吸收效应

用ＮａＣｌ、ＫＣｌ、ＮａＮＯ３和ＫＮＯ３处理碱蓬（Ｓｕａｅｄａｓａｌｓａ）和玉米（Ｚｅａｍａｙｓ）幼苗,发现ＮａＣｌ胁迫引起Ｋ＋、Ｃａ２＋、Ｍｇ２＋、Ｆｅ２＋、Ｚｎ２＋、ＮＯ－３等必需元素的含量降低．认为ＫＣｌ和ＫＮＯ３处理引起碱蓬幼苗幼叶黄化的主要原因是Ｎａ＋的缺乏;ＫＣｌ处理引起玉米和碱蓬幼苗的干枯死亡主要是由于植物体内高浓度Ｃｌ－引起的;Ｎａ＋是引起盐生植物碱蓬叶片肉质化的重要因子;Ｃｌ－是刺激碱蓬生长的重要因子     

Stability of the Sarcin/Ricin domain of 28S RNA in rat ribosome under hydrostatic pressure

Under 2 100 bar of hydrostatic pressure, KNA N-glycosidase can still cleave the N-C bond of adenosine at position 4324 in R/S domain of 28S RNA in rat ribosome, demonstrating that high pressure has no effect on the tertiary structure of S/R domain.