外汇累积期权定价与应用及风险分析——以中信泰富的澳元累积期权为例

阐述了累积期权和外汇累积期权的含义,进行了外汇累积期权定价和风险分析,着重对香港中信泰富澳元累积期权亏损案例进行了分析,提出了防范风险的措施。     

Late Cenozoic history of deep water circulation in the western North Pacific: Evidence from Nd isotopes of ferromanganese crusts

Despite its importance in regulating the global climate, the past deep ocean circulation in the western North Pacific has still been poorly understood. Nd isotopes of ferromanganese crusts have been proven to be a good proxy to monitor paleoceanic circulation changes. In this study, late Cenozoic Nd isotopic records are recovered from two ferromanganese crusts located near Mariana arc but at different water depths (MKD13: 1530 m, MDD53: 2700 m), and their implications for paleocirculation change in this area are explored. From the early to late Miocene, Nd isotopic compositions of MDD53 remained stable, and they were also characterized by the least radiogenic signatures ( Nd4.0 to5.0) compared to crusts of similar water depths in the Miocene North Pacific. Afterward, an abrupt increase in its Nd value occurred in the Pliocene. In contrast, Nd isotopes of MKD13 became more radio- genic with time in the Miocene and were almost invariable thereafter. The continual increase in Nd of shallower crust MKD13 is interpreted as reflecting progressive closure of Indonesian Seaway in the Miocene, while the deep western boundary current sourced from the Southern Pacific may have dominated Nd isotopes of deeper crust MDD53 during the same time interval. The lack of Nd isotopic variation of MKD13 in the Pliocene indicates that there were no changes in Nd sources in shallower waters and the final restriction between the Indian and Pacific may have only occurred since then. Therefore the observed large shift to more radiogenic Nd isotopes of MDD53 in the Pliocene should not be resulted from changes in vertical input from shallower to deeper water. Instead, a decreased ventilation of deep southern component current along the studied water depth range (~2700 m) may have continued in the Pliocene.     

Positive feedback of winter ocean-atmosphere interaction in Northwest Pacific

Associated with East Asia Trough in the upper layer in winter, the Aleutian Low is the predominant atmos- pheric activity center in North Pacific. Previous re- searches on interannual or decadal variability of Aleu- tian Low[1―4] found that the Aleutian …     

Progress in researching into the transition of the Mesozoic tectonic systems in southeast China

This paper presents the latest progress made on the research of Mesozoic tectonic system transition from the E-W paleo-Tethyan tectonic domain into NE-NNE western Pacific domain in southeast China. Tectonism of the west Pacific domain began at middle Jurassic (J₂) and formed a set of NE-trending structures, non-coaxially overprinting on E-trending tectonic belts which may be early and coevally produced by the paleo-Tethyan domain. Thus began the tectonic domain transition from the E-trending paleo-Tethyan to the NE-trending Pacific and fully finished at the early Cretaceous. The eastern Nanling area was a junction zone of the transition at middle Jurassic (J₂), and ever since the junction zone might obliquely migrate to the coastal region, where is the east part of this study area. To the north of the Nanling area, the Ganjiang Fault Zone was the boundary between two tectonic domains. Corresponding to the transition of tectonic system, the geodynamics of SE China changed from a compressional system to an extensional system, which continued until the end of Mesozoic-Tertiary.     

亚太多边经济合作的必然性--读《冷战后亚太国际关系》

通过对陈峰君主编的《冷战后亚太国际关系》一书,特别是有关章节的阅读,研究亚太地区多边经济合作的必然性,并试图提出自己的观点。     

Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific

The rainfall in North China during rainy season （July and August （JA）） exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North China rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North China rainfall is associated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North China rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A possible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North China rainfall.     

The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.