The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors

A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in (1) the method of estimating the model parameters, (2) the period between re-estimations, (3) the growth curve fitted and (4) the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The response to variation of the parameter review period was found to behave surprisingly, in that it exhibited different signs for two different estimation methods. Changes in re-estimation period explained somewhat more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal improved performance.     

Study of Treating HAPE with HBO in Situ at the Altitude of 4636 m

Study Objective ： To evaluate the treatment effect of HAPE with HBO in situ at an extreme altitude of 4636 m. To investigate the relationship between pulmonary hypertension （PH） and HAPE. To emphasize the importance of the treatment in situ. Methods： The 32 patients from the plateau of 4636 - 5130 m （the barometric pressure： 57.41 - 53.28 kPa/431.6 - 400.6 mmHg（1 mmHg = 133.3224 Pa）, the partial pressure of oxygen： 12.0 - 11.6 kPa/90.0 - 87.0 mmHg） were treated in situ of 4636 m altitude with HBO. Before and after the treatment, the clinical symptoms / signs, radiographic evidence, SaO2, and MPAP were compared. Results： The clinical symptoms/signs, and all the targets of the patients were improved dramatically （p 〈 0.001）. Conclusions： Treating HAPE with HBO is the most effective method among various therapies in situ at an extreme altitude. The pulmonary -artery pressure was significantly decreased. All eases showed improved immediately. Among the subjects, 11 eases （34.3 %） were cured at once. The therapy made it possible for patients to get further treatment at a lower altitude area with prospective good results. We suggested that treating HAPE with HBO should be the first choice in situ. There must be PH in the patients of HAPE, but the reverse is not the true. The PH is a mechanism of normal compensation of the body exposing in the hypoxie environment. It is very necessary for us to explore the threshold of PH when a HAPE happens.     

Fitting of growth curves over time when the data are obtained from a single realization

This paper focuses on the general problem of forecasting the maximum value of a time series which by the nature of the data must approach an asymptotic value. Examples of such series include the growth of organisms, the concentration of a chemical reagent during a reaction occurring over time or the amount of a fossil fuel resource which has been discovered or produced as a function of time. The approach taken below differs from the usual models for this type of data in that it assumes that an unobserved time series is actually driving the process, and that the observed data series is a function of the unobserved process. In the case of fossil fuels the unobserved series might be a measure of the exploratory drilling, the number of production days in a given time period or even the amount of fiscal resources devoted to exploratory activities. A maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the process, especially the maximum S, and the covariance structure of the estimators is developed. The methodology is illustrated on an example of oil production. Finally, methods are developed for forecasting the data into the near future.     

Integral computation relating to rational curves based on approximate degree reduction

A new algorithm is presented for computing the volume of revolution, moment of area and centroid etc. , which are related to the integration of rational curves. In this algorithm rational curve with high degree is firstly approximated by those with lower degree through endpoint interpolation. And finally the closed form integration solution is derived for quadratic rational curve. The diminishing rate of the minimum norm of the perturbation vector needed by degree reduction is 0(2" ") when the interval is subdivided at the midpoint. Combining the subdivision with the degree reduction, we can obtain a faster convergence of integration approximation. A series of integral error bound functions which are fairly simple to compute are derived. The examples given in this paper show that this algorithm is a simple and time-saving method in computing with small tolerance.     

高层钢结构考虑损伤累积及裂纹效应的抗震分析

基于钢材在反复荷载作用下的损伤累积力学模型（包括损伤变量D的计算公式，损伤对钢材屈服强度、弹性模量、强化系数的影响以及钢材考虑损伤累积效应的应力－应变滞回关系等）和损伤累积断裂准则，采用改进的数值积分方法对钢构件的滞回曲线进行了计算机仿真，并建立了实用的考虑损伤累积和断裂效应的钢构件恢复力模型。采用这一模型对具有损伤的空间钢框架结构的抗震反应进行分析，并得到了振动台模拟地震试验的验证。抗震分析方法的特点为：能够考虑损伤累积和裂纹效应的影响，能够计算构件的损伤程度，能够计算裂缝产生的时间、部位及其开展，以及能够对钢框架结构遭受多次地震时的情况作真实的反应分析。     

关于非同余数的一些结论

2002年,冯克勤给出了一些与同余数相关的椭圆曲线Selmer群平凡的充要条件,通过这些条件可以证明关于非同余数的一些已有结论, 还可以得到一些新的非同余数. 本文通过类似方法计算了此类椭圆曲线的弱Mordell Weil群,得到了一些使得该群平凡的条件,利用这些方法和条件同样可以得到冯的结果, 并且可以找到一些新的非同余数.     

一种基于曲线匹配的印鉴图像自动检索方法

从汉字笔划横平竖直这一特点出发,提出了汉字图像中适合于印鉴图像检索的两种特征:汉字的外边缘轮廓和汉字的方向投影密度.进而用函数曲线对这两种特征进行量化描述,将对汉字的匹配归结为对函数曲线的匹配.最后通过实验验证了这两种特征的稳定性以及基于这两种特征的曲线匹配方法的有效性.     

核磁共振T2谱法估算毛管压力曲线综述

用油藏实测NMRT2谱换算毛管压力曲线,首先需正确确定T2截止值,将T2谱划分为束缚流体T2谱和可动流体T2谱,然后对可动流体T2谱进行烃影响的校正,校正后的可动流体T2谱加上束缚水T2谱获得SW为1条件下的T2谱,然后用换算系数κ将T2谱直接转换成毛管压力曲线。经大量岩心分析和实际NMR测井数据试验表明,碎屑砂岩油藏NMR测井T2分布数据估算毛管压力曲线方法可靠,与岩心压汞毛管压力曲线吻合,其精度相当于常规测井解释。应用这一方法换算的毛管压力曲线可用于确定含油(气)深度范围的饱和度—高度关系,确定油藏自由水面位置。     

区间有理Bézier曲线的降多阶逼近

通过分析有理多项式的约束不等式,把区间有理Bézier曲线的降阶转化为多项式的保上界降阶逼近问题,得到两种降阶算法:拟线性规划法和拟最优逼近法。前者可一次降多阶,后者可一次降一阶或降二阶且具有显式的计算公式。给出了两种算法降一阶时的误差上界估计。数值实例验证了两种算法的有效性。